Today in Spain a scandal has been revealed about how to pay 60% more pensioners with the same number of employed people. The baby-boom generation is starting to retire, and it is expected that by 2050 there will be 6 million more pensioners and the same number of workers. There are currently 21 million employed (taxpayers) and more than 9 million pensioners. The...
- The market is trading below a bearish trendline since beginning of May 2024 ; the mid-term trend is bearish for EURGBP.
- Since the impact over 0.8397, the market has registered an increased buying pressure, preventing prices from dipping further.
This slow trading mind shift has led the market into what looks like a potential inverted Head & Shoulders bullish...
Expected today was UK retail sales data, which rose 2.9% in the previous month. April's decline of -1.8% during a period of heavy rain on the island kept customers away from the stores, according to the UK's Office for National Statistics. The expected forecast was for a positive correction of 1.5% according to surveys but this has been far exceeded. Also...
It appears that the failure of Swiss government-backed Swiss bank UBS last year, which was subsequently absorbed by Credit Suisse, prompted the government to regulate more restrictively for banks that are considered key and too big to fail destabilizing the Swiss economy, in April. Hence, the Swiss National Bank and the governing federal council acted on capital...
The Ibex will not initially suffer from the Chinese veto on domestic wool, and the tax increase on meat imports. It will do so later. And I will explain why, the index does not weight anything in food, only services, finance, and energy. When Banco Santander and BBVA, the textile company Inditex, the telecoms Amadeus and Telefónica and Iberdrola move, the index...
European market stocks rose at the open driven by easing concerns about regional political turmoil in a week that is set to see several central bank meetings, including the Bank of England (BoE). It appears that the call for elections in France makes it easier to believe that Macron's center-left group will have a tough time against the Rassemblement Nationale in...
"Neutral" interest rates according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was killed at 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024. This indicator shows us that the rate level should support a booming economy that will sustain the rate cut target towards 2%. While the Fed's long-term forecast for the federal funds rate has risen to 2.8%. Wells Fargo has brought out the...
This Friday's Asian open has started cold concerning the Fed's effect on Asia-Pacific crosses this time around. Sentiment especially from China on tariffs in the Eurozone has heightened concerns of a renewed trade war. For Chinese companies, it is not so much a hindrance as a temporary restraint that is likely to be solved by their strategic alliances along the...
- The market is trading below a bearish trendline which took place at the beginning of April ; the mid-term trend is then bearish for the black gold.
- However, since the impact over $72.43, the LCrude has registered a sharp bullish price action, led by bull traders who managed to defend that zone as well as short-sellers who bought their short positions...
The Fed has left us air on this year's rate cuts, and a weak majority of the Open Markets Committee is leaning toward a single cut, when in March there was a consensus for two. Powell has warned of the high level of uncertainty in the market to get carried away with the dot plot, a collection of economic, inflation, employment and interest rate forecasts obtained...
- The market has been trading inside a bullish channel since mid-April ; the mid-term trend is then bullish.
- Since the beginning of June, and another impact over the lower bound of the mid-term bullish channel, bulls have taken control of the market and ended a 7-days long correction.
The market has registered a sharp rebound over that zone, driven by hopes of...
With a crimson-red start to the week for European indices and the euro, today's data releases on the “fish & chips” island, the UK is faced with April data on economic growth, exports, trade balance and industrial production. Expectations, despite being negative, have been far from accurate with none of them performing as poorly as they have. The British economic...
- The market has been trading above a bullish trendline since mid-Arpil ; the mid-term trend was then bullish.
- During the last few trading sessions, the pair has been put under significant pressure as prices registered a sharp pull-back from 1.0916 to 1.0720 currently.
This sell-off led the market to a bearish break-out of its mid-term bullish trendline,...
Indices outside Europe traded higher yesterday and the right-wing-weighted European elections pushed Macron in France to call for early national elections. Meanwhile, the euro fell to a record low and European equities suffered from the result. In contrast, the rest of the international indices started their sessions in positive territory, although not all of them...
The euro falls sharply and European risk premia revive the region. The results seem to have woken up in the markets and have been extended especially in southern and peripheral countries and in particular also highlights France with the fall of its bonds, following the decision of President Macron to call early parliamentary elections, after his defeat in a vote...
As is well known among traders, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NPP) report is usually the most relevant release of the day and usually provides many clues as to the Fed's direction for interest rate adjustments, in this case possible cuts. NVidia has become an unusual focus of attention lately, even though short positions in AI giant have been increasing to...
Markets rose on Wednesday, recovering losses from the previous session in anticipation of important data on regional activity and awaiting the ECB's latest monetary policy meeting. At the open, it was up 0.4%. It was followed by the French CAC40 and the FTSE 100 with 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, and finally the Spanish IBEX35 with around 0.4%. A rate cut of 25...
Since the beginning of the month, there have been signs that crude oil has been falling and this has continued into today's Asian opening at a total of -9.11%. OPEC+ (OPEC with Russia and its allies) wanted to impress the market by extending the mandatory cuts, but the market has turned its attention to the voluntary cuts. The reversal of these cuts has set off a...
