Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Economic Club of New York, said the U.S. is enforcing sanctions on Iran for “immediate maximum impact,” warning that Iranians should move their money out of the rial.
The goal is to cut Iran’s oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to near zero.
His comments came as oil prices fell to multiyear lows on...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
Prada — here’s a luxury story that’s outperformed peers in recent times — sales up +17% in 2024 — Miu Miu drove sales a remarkable +25% (+93% in Q4 alone!). It’s been a long, funny life as a publicly listed company for Prada — they listed on the Hong Kong exchange in 2011 and the stock surged,...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
Unilever is one of those stocks I’m aware of but have never had much interest in — it’s a large conglomerate that makes very boring things, like Dove soap (they also make Ben and Jerry’s ice cream). However, the great thing with boring companies is that they’re fairly predictable — if you think...
The White House confirmed a one-month exemption for autos under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), following President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.
The exemption has significant consequences for Mexico’s economy, with tariffs expected to add billions in costs for automakers that rely on Mexican production.
Mexican President Claudia...
Later this week on Thursday, we get the European Central Bank policy decision. The overwhelming expectation heading into the event risk is that the ECB will go ahead and cut rates another 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. Euro area economic activity has been sluggish of late, and the central bank's move to cut rates will help stimulate...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
I’ve written a lot about WarnerBrothersDiscovery, and I’ve talked about it a lot in this newsletter.
Long story short — giant monolith formed by the merger of Discovery and the spun-out Warner assets of AT&T³.
The big issue was debt. They’ve managed to pay off a lot of debt — the company’s...
OK, so it's finally happened. On March 4, 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy products facing a separate 10% tariff. Tariffs on Chinese imports were also doubled from 10% to 20%.
In response, Canada imposed immediate 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with plans to extend them to...
Investors come into the new week with some hope that we will see a de-escalation in trade tension. US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, though there have been indications that there is good reason to believe it won't be the 25% tariffs that President Trump had said initially.
Risk assets have responded accordingly, with the US...
Bitcoin has fallen below the 78.6% retracement of Sunday’s surge and is now less than 2K above the level it was at when Trump tweeted about a strategic reserve including Bitcoin and a few altcoins.
Some of the smaller cryptocurrencies mentioned by Trump—Cardano, Solana, and Ripple—are holding up slightly better but have also dropped.
Strategy Executive...
The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its March 6 meeting, lowering the deposit rate to 2.5%. All 82 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the cut.
So, with this in the bag, the focus shifts to what comes next. Markets see a 60% chance of another cut in April, but hawkish policymakers like Isabel Schnabel are pushing...
The US dollar is mildly bid into the North American session as it continues to generate interest from the Trump trade tension. We believe most of this is more negotiation tactic than anything else, though for the time being, the unpredictability is impacting the currency market. US equities have done a better job dealing with all of this, with equity futures...
Gold can thrive on uncertainty, and for the past three years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a key driver. However, recent developments hopefully suggest a possible shift toward peace. While a complete resolution is uncertain, the beginning of peace talks, no matter how flawed they appear, could weaken gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Gold benefits from lower...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
Tinder, Bumble and so on were once feted as the “new thing”. Here’s how Bumble is doing now.
That’s — not great! That’s pretty bad! The world moved on from dating apps, by and large — dating app consumption...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
Ah, Spark. Shocker of a result on Friday — losing in all segments (save their IoT business, which is negligible anyway). Since Jolie Hodson became CEO in 2019 the stock has decreased roughly 40%. In the last...
Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on the European Union, bizarrely stating that the 27-member bloc was “formed to screw the United States.”
Without providing further details, he hinted at targeting carmakers, saying, “We have made a decision and we’ll be announcing it very soon.” The EU has vowed to retaliate immediately if the tariffs take...
President Trump is tightening the screws on trade, reaffirming that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will proceed as planned next week. Financial markets have reacted with stocks selling off, already weighed down by softer US economic data and rising inflation.
The euro has been consolidating recent gains as it awaits developments in the German coalition. Meanwhile,...
Ukraine is set to sign an “improved” minerals deal with the US after the US dropped its claim to $500 billion in potential revenue, according to the FT. The news has boosted the euro and market sentiment, but what about the commodities involved?
Ukraine holds about 5% of the world's critical raw materials, essential for EVs, clean energy, and defense. Its...
Currencies had been bid to start the day but have given back most of their gains to the dollar into the North American open. Interestingly, U.S. equity futures are still holding up well as they attempt to extend the recovery from Friday's decline, which followed a weak set of U.S. economic data. The big question now is whether the softer data will prompt the Fed...
