NZ Economist's bold call opens opportunity in NZD?
Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ (the country’s largest retail bank), says the RBNZ may lift interest rates to 6% at its next meetings in February (27th) and April. Zollner accounts for 25 basis points in each meeting.
This could potentially open some targets to the upside in the NZD/USD, including a...
Bullish or bearish signs build in USD/JPY?
The USD/JPY surpassed a crucial resistance level at 148.650 on Thursday and hit its highest value since November 2023.
The obvious next step is of course to explore the 150.00 threshold. However, any incremental advance beyond this point should be eyed with caution and uncertainty. The Yen faced is facing pressure...
GBP/USD Alert: Next Week's Inflation Forecast
The week is relatively quiet, so we are looking ahead to next week’s major events. With UK and US inflation released one day apart, perhaps the GBP/USD is the pair to watch.
On February 14, U.S. inflation rate data is set to be released. Despite the diminishing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March, if...
Wolfe Research thinks NAS100 moves higher
Several mega-cap entities, including Meta and Nvidia, are propping up the Nasdaq 100, following Jerome Powell's 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, which has further diminished the likelihood of a March rate cut (currently below 20%, according to the Financial Times).
Potential support zones might materialize around the...
USD opportunity? Market overestimating March rate cut?
The market is only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut from the US Fed in March now. Is this probability too high still? Jerome Powell spoke after the latest FOMC decision yesterday and noted that it was unlikely that the Fed would be cutting rates in March.
Why is the market still pricing in a 30%...
Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande
On Wednesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $77 per barrel, undoing a 1.4% increase from the prior session, all while the U.S. readies itself to address a lethal attack on its troops in the Middle East.
Perhaps traders are concerned more about the liquidation of China Evergrande, raising worries about the...
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow?
Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate...
First opportunity AUD/USD
Australian inflation data released Tuesday evening, might make the AUD/USD the most interesting pair to watch this week. This is because inflation will likely come in higher than 4.0% still.
Less than 24 hours later, we then have the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, which will be one of the most watched forex...
Gold rally unlikely after strong US GDP data?
The United States revealed a 3.3% annualized GDP for the three months ending in December earlier today, surpassing the market's 2.0% forecast.
The likelihood of an early-year Fed rate cut seems to have diminished even further now, helping curb weakness in the dollar. Given these market conditions, does a rally in...
Time to Brace for GDP (and USD) Downside Surprise?
This Thursday marks the release of the initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2023 GDP in the United States. If predictions hold true, there will be a noticeable deceleration in economic growth, with the market anticipating an annualized growth rate of 2%, a significant drop from the previous quarter's...
AUD/USD Trade alert: Strong USD vs RBA's rate decision
Talk of a US$278 billion (1 trillion yuan) rescue package for Chinese shares might not be enough to support AUD/USD.
Countering this positive signal for the AUD is general US dollar strength, caused by a shift in the market regarding the likelihood of a March rate cut. At the turn of the year, it was priced...
Some analysts anticipate that Netflix's stock could reach a new 52-week high above $500 per share following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings report this Tuesday. The $506 mark is considered a target, representing the price it fell to at the beginning of 2022.
Positive sentiment towards Netflix has grown as profit estimates have been revised upward 17...
The three big events of this week will likely be the BoJ, BoC, and ECB interest rate decisions.
Even though we aren't expecting to see any rate cuts or rate rises from any bank, we are looking forward to the guidance that each will present alongside their respective decisions. The guidance might be enough to move the yen, Canadian dollar, or euro.
The...
A few weeks ago, there was widespread belief in the markets that the U.S. central bank would implement more than 160 basis points of easing in 2024. However, these expectations have substantially moderated since then, leading to a bearish reversal in the gold market.
Even today, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic emphasized that he anticipates...
USD/JPY: Retests to kill momentum?
The USD/JPY experienced a notable surge from 144.50 as the week commenced, surpassing the 61.8% retracement level from the November-December downturn. It breached its 100-day MA, demonstrating a one-way move that resulted in a gain of 400 pips. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has incurred a loss exceeding 4%....
Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches
Several ECB officials are expressing opposition to rate cuts, potentially helping to curb losses in the EUR/USD, which is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level after a more than 0.7% drop.
Davos has prompted ECB officials to share their views on the Euro Area's prospects and their positions on the...
EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside?
The EUR/USD currency pair seems poised for a technical breakout.
Analysing the 8-hour chart reveals a consolidation phase since the start of the year, following a decline below 1.1000, with this mark acting as a resistance level on two occasions since then.
Currently, EUR/USD is resembling a...
3 currencies to watch this week: GBP, JPY, CAD
Our primary focus will be on the British Pound, as several significant reports are scheduled from Britain. On Tuesday, we have the unemployment rate, followed by the crucial inflation rate on Wednesday, and retail sales data on Friday.
This is why we will be watching some keys levels in the GBPUSD, including...
