USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold?
In September of last year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a move in the market to strengthen its currency when it reached 145 against the USD, marking the first such intervention since 1998. This action was taken following the BOJ's decision to maintain an extremely accommodative policy (a policy that is yet to change...
During their June meeting, minutes released on Wednesday indicated that almost all Federal Reserve officials expect further tightening in the future. Despite the majority's belief in upcoming rate hikes, policymakers chose not to increase rates due to concerns about over-tightening. They acknowledged the delayed impact of previous policies and other factors, which...
Yesterday, the AUD/USD experienced its third consecutive day of growth. However, the upward trend is expected to face obstacles during Tuesday's trading session due to the impending Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.
Despite some analysts adopting a more hawkish stance and predicting a rate hike as the most likely outcome of today's meeting, money market traders...
The US dollar rose on Wednesday after the gathering of central bank leaders worldwide, which included Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During the meeting, Powell left open the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing two more rate hikes this year. Furthermore, Powell stated that he does not anticipate inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target of...
Mutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 Months
In one of the most turbulent trading sessions this year, the Russian ruble reached its lowest point against the US dollar in nearly 15 months on Monday. This decline followed the failed mutiny attempt by The Wagner group’s armed mercenaries over the weekend, which caused significant concern among traders. Initially...
The UK continues to struggle with high inflation, as demonstrated once again this morning when headline inflation exceeded expectations at 8.7%, surpassing the projected 8.4%. Core inflation also outperformed, registering a 7.1% figure compared to the expected 6.8%. This divergence emphasizes the contrast between the UK and its counterparts in the US and Europe....
On Monday, the pound reached its highest level against the euro in 10 months, at 85.25 pence, as investors await the British inflation data and the upcoming Bank of England decision. However, the currency pair quickly rebounded to the support level of the previous week, at 85.42 pence, but is perhaps now tracking down again.
In recent weeks, the sterling has...
Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see...
US Inflation Trading Opportunities Ahead
The next two days' worth of trading could turn out to be particularly interesting due to the sharp drop in CPI expected on (US time) Tuesday as well as the market being (over?) confident that the Fed is going to pause its rate hiking cycle on Wednesday.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are factoring...
Last night, the Bank of Canada decided to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75%. This move came after a pause in the tightening campaign during the two previous meetings. As a result, borrowing costs reached a level not seen in 22 years. Because most of the market, approximately 60%, expected interest rates to remain unchanged, the...
The USD/CAD has been consolidating since late last Friday. Key levels include 1.346 and 1.345 for the upper bound and 1.341 and 1.340 for the lower bound. The market appears to be in the middle of the storm that might be unleashed after the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest rate decision on Wednesday.
In January, the BoC made history by being the first major...
NFP report: How Will it Shape the Gold Trend?
Gold prices experienced a rise on Tuesday and Thursday (sideways on Wednesday), driven by traders' expectations of another interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. But is the medium-term downtrend really over?
One fundamental indicator that can help answer this question is the nonfarm payrolls, due to be...
The US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week:
US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default....
Rakon reported strong results today but the pièce de résistance was its dividend of 1.5c per share (roughly ~1.5% gross). We called for a dividend in our initiation of coverage on the company and we’re buoyed that management listened – we think this is crucial to unlocking shareholder value and valuing the stock at a multiple on par with its international peers....
Oceania shares were a touch higher after reporting a mixed result, with operating earnings holding up due to sales margins, while sales volume is starting to slow. Oceania cut its full-year dividend to 3.2 cents per share, as the next couple years will appear challenging for the business given rising interest rates.
We still view Oceania as a value retirement...
The New Zealand dollar experienced a significant drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in more than three months at $0.6039. This decline followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) expected decision to raise cash rates by 25 basis points to 5.5%. However, the central bank also hinted that it might conclude its tightening campaign, which...
Alphabet trades at 20x earnings vs. Microsoft's 29x. Bard is a worthy competitor to ChatGPT and we remind readers that Alphabet continues to be the world's dominant advertising business. Preference is GOOG, MSFT, AMZN in order. Strongly prefer GOOG to MSFT given valuation discount. We see upside for Alphabet at $140 per share and downside at $110. Read more at...
Tomorrow, the latest inflation rate for the UK will be released, which will be significant for traders dealing with GBP/USD due to the perhaps unrealistic forecast for a 2-percentage point drop.
It is expected that the inflation rate for April will have significantly dropped to 8.2%. Are markets overly optimist with this forecast? In March, the consumer price...
