We've seen an extension of US dollar weakness in recent sessions, partially on the back of deteriorating consumer sentiment in the US and perhaps partially due to the risk-on reaction to the US avoiding a government shutdown.
Elsewhere, it finally looks like the Greens have backed up Germany's massive fiscal plans, which has been helping to keep the Euro...
The USD/MXN has fallen over 2.5% in the past five trading sessions, dropping below 19.9 per USD for the first time since November 2024.
Two key factors could be driving this move:
1.
Investor distrust in the U.S. dollar – Market confidence is weakening due to Trump’s inconsistent tariff threats and other unpopular policies.
In contrast, the Sheinbaum...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
I’ve written a lot about WarnerBrothersDiscovery, and I’ve talked about it a lot in this newsletter.
Long story short — giant monolith formed by the merger of Discovery and the spun-out Warner assets of AT&T³.
The big issue was debt. They’ve managed to pay off a lot of debt — the company’s...
Gold is sprinting to new all-time highs and approaching the $3000 level. The price has just reached $2983 at the time of writing, just $17 away from the key $3000 level.
Alex Ebkarian from Allegiance Gold forecasts “prices to trade between $3,000 and $3,200 this year,”.
Momentum is currently being driven by uncertainty around Trump tariffs and stalled...
Financial markets can't get away from all things trade tariffs, and it's clear the unpredictability has been rattling sentiment. The unpredictability has also been behind a lot of the US dollar selling we've been seeing, particularly against the major currencies now viewed as alternative safe havens amidst the deterioration in confidence in the buck.
Meanwhile,...
You may be sick of hearing about tariffs, but they are currently the catalyst for a huge amount of volatility in the market and a huge amount of trading opportunities.
And now Trump’s trade war has crossed the Atlantic
Today, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately €26 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to President Donald...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
We’ve seen the S&P, NASDAQ and every other American index get slammed in the last couple of days. Some people are panicking. A lot of people are panicking. If you go on Twitter (sorry — X dot com) you will find a lot of people who listened to a recommendation from a guy on YouTube about a trash...
So, Trump was all like, “Let’s slap an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum,” which meant total duties shot up to 50%.
Why? Because Ontario put a 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S. And Doug Ford? He was not having it—saying he’d “respond appropriately” and “not back down.” But —he totally backed down and scrapped the tax on electricity exports...
Risk off - dollar off isn't exactly a familiar trend in markets, yet this is how things have been playing out in recent sessions. Ultimately, the market is deeply distressed about the outlook for the U.S. economy given the unpredictability of administration policies, forcing investors into risk reduction mode, where alternatives to the U.S. dollar have become the...
With markets in turmoil, it's easy to overlook the growing risk of a U.S. government shutdown.
A three-week market sell-off intensified today as investors worry that unpredictable policies from the Trump administration are pushing the economy into recession.
The S&P 500 is down 9.1% from its February high, the Nasdaq 14%, and the Russell 2000 18%. A 10%...
Bitcoin surged on March 3 after Donald Trump announced a strategic crypto reserve, only to erase gains following erratic tariff announcements the following days.
Friday’s White House crypto summit, expected to be a turning point, fell flat. Trump met with top crypto executives, promising to ease Biden-era regulations, but offered only vague commitments. Instead...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Economic Club of New York, said the U.S. is enforcing sanctions on Iran for “immediate maximum impact,” warning that Iranians should move their money out of the rial.
The goal is to cut Iran’s oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to near zero.
His comments came as oil prices fell to multiyear lows on...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
Prada — here’s a luxury story that’s outperformed peers in recent times — sales up +17% in 2024 — Miu Miu drove sales a remarkable +25% (+93% in Q4 alone!). It’s been a long, funny life as a publicly listed company for Prada — they listed on the Hong Kong exchange in 2011 and the stock surged,...
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
Unilever is one of those stocks I’m aware of but have never had much interest in — it’s a large conglomerate that makes very boring things, like Dove soap (they also make Ben and Jerry’s ice cream). However, the great thing with boring companies is that they’re fairly predictable — if you think...
The White House confirmed a one-month exemption for autos under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), following President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.
The exemption has significant consequences for Mexico’s economy, with tariffs expected to add billions in costs for automakers that rely on Mexican production.
Mexican President Claudia...
Later this week on Thursday, we get the European Central Bank policy decision. The overwhelming expectation heading into the event risk is that the ECB will go ahead and cut rates another 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. Euro area economic activity has been sluggish of late, and the central bank's move to cut rates will help stimulate...
OK, so it's finally happened. On March 4, 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy products facing a separate 10% tariff. Tariffs on Chinese imports were also doubled from 10% to 20%.
In response, Canada imposed immediate 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with plans to extend them to...
Investors come into the new week with some hope that we will see a de-escalation in trade tension. US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow, though there have been indications that there is good reason to believe it won't be the 25% tariffs that President Trump had said initially.
Risk assets have responded accordingly, with the US...
