Traders will next hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his highly anticipated address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The key question hanging over the market: Will Powell use this speech to pave the way for a potential interest rate cut in September?
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, argues that Powell should take...
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, sending the New Zealand dollar plunging by 1% against the U.S. dollar. The move caught markets off guard, as most analysts had anticipated the central bank would hold rates steady until at least its next meeting. Today wasn’t supposed to be the day, but these are the moments...
AUD/USD Eyes Key Data After Breaking 0.6600
The AUD/USD extended its rally passed the critical 0.6600 mark to hit new three-week highs. Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations and Unemployment.
The pair faces immediate resistance at the 200-day moving average, followed by the 0.668 level. On the downside,...
R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong
R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium
S1 1.3718 – 9 August low – Medium
S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium
We remain in the thick of thin summer trade, something that must be taken into consideration when reflecting on price action. The market has done a good job overall recovering from last Monday’s panic mess and the question...
As gold aims to test record high again, let's look at some of the political issues possibly driving the price action.
Iran Tensions Escalate:
The Pentagon has dispatched a guided missile submarine and a carrier strike group, to the Middle East. This move follows Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel after a senior Hamas leader was killed in Tehran last...
Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch?
US CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI report is expected to confirm a continuation of the disinflationary trend observed in recent months. Analysts predict the annual inflation rate to edge down to 2.9%, while the core inflation rate is likely to decelerate to 3.2%.
This ongoing cooling of inflation...
GBPUSD – technical overview
Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500.
R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong
R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium
...
NZD Outlook: ANZ’s Forecast for Next Week
ANZ anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will maintain its current interest rates at the August 14 meeting but may signal potential rate cuts before the year ends. Although ANZ estimates a small 10-15% chance that the RBNZ might shift to an easing bias during this coming meeting.
Markets are...
Gold has slipped below the $2,400 mark even as geopolitical tensions possibly escalate, with Israel bracing for potential retaliation from Iran. US intelligence indicates the response could come late Thursday or Friday.
Market attention is also directed towards the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims data, due on Thursday, which investors hope will provide further...
Mexico's inflation data will be released Thursday morning, closely followed by the Central Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision in the afternoon.
July's headline inflation in Mexico is expected to have accelerated to its highest level in over a year, according to a Reuters poll. However, the core index is anticipated to continue its moderation.
Rising...
US equities just experienced their worst day since 2022, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.0%, the Nasdaq falling 3.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting by 1033 points. All sectors in the US saw declines, with mega-cap tech stocks performing particularly poorly. Notably, NVIDIA saw a sharp fall of 15% during the trading day, though it managed to...
Gold temporarily surged past $2,474 per ounce on Friday, marking a new record high, as a weak U.S. jobs report bolstered expectations of a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below the anticipated 175,000 increase.
Gold prices have since pulled back slightly but are still trading just above the 100-hour...
Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision
A Reuters survey indicates that most economists anticipate the Bank of England (BOE) reducing interest rates at its August meeting. The poll revealed that over 80% of respondents expect a rate cut.
We could see a close decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with a 5-4 split in favor of a rate...
BOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike Leaked
The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a 15-basis point interest rate hike, surpassing market expectations of a 10-basis point increase or no change at all, according to NHK. This comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates a rate cut, potentially as soon as September.
This could be why...
US SPX 500 – technical overview
Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.
R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
R1...
It's a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation.
The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40%...
GBP/USD to Track 100-MA Slope?
On Wednesday, GBP/USD traders will focus on the UK's July Manufacturing and Services PMI, expected to show slight increases.
Although, more significant events will come from the U.S., including the annualized Q2 2024 GDP and the PCE Price Index.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge likely cooled in June, suggesting its efforts...
R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
S1 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium
S2 154.55 – 4 June low – Strong
USDJPY – fundamental overview
A large carry trade unwind via Aussie and Mexican Peso sales against the Yen, along with increased odds for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the month were behind the latest run of Yen demand....
