Gold (June) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2351.0, up 5.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 27.807, up 0.304
Gold futures have now set a fresh record high for the eighth straight session. Although Silver is well below its 1980 and 2011 record highs of $50, the underlying strength exuded in recent sessions is certainly nothing to...
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5253.25, up 0.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,295.00, down 5.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were little changed to start the week as traders and investors await tomorrow’s CPI slate. Given last Thursday's fallout and Friday's stronger-than-expected headline job creation,...
Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.43, down 0.48
On Friday, geopolitical premium helped the nearby month in Crude Oil futures traded to the highest level since October 23rd, and the May contract hit the highest since June 2022. Price action gapped lower from the 86.91 settlement on the open Sunday night, but strength into the onset of U.S. hours...
Grain futures are higher in the early morning trade as some as headline risk looms into the weekend.
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures are fractionally lower in the early morning trade as prices linger near our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435, which just happens to be right near the middle of first support and first resistance. We like the upside...
Gold futures have gone parabolic this year, outperforming Stock Indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Can this rally continue? Or can we continue to make new all-time highs in what may be a new “Bull Cycle” for the precious metal.
Key Drivers:
Gold is typically sensitive to monetary and fiscal tightening. When interest rates and government spending are at...
We come back to the silver market where our previous article indicated a potential breakout. Now that we have seen a decisive break and close above previous major resistance, we have new hurdles to clear.
Drivers:
Partially fueled by the rally in the Gold market, silver prices have also witnessed a disconnect from traditional fundamentals such as tighter...
Cattle futures have gotten hit hard over the last few weeks as headline risk coupled with bearish seasonal tendencies have led to long liquidation from Funds.
The selling pressure accelerated on March 26th as headlines of Avian flue spreading to (dairy) cattle in Texas and Kansas swept across all the different agricultural news wires and raised concerns of...
December corn futures, often referred to as the “new crop” contract because it is the price for the U.S. crop that is about to get planted. The first crop progress report of the year showed just 2% of the crop is planted in the United States. With the crop hardly in the ground, there are uncertainties around production potential that tend to offer seasonal...
We have observed interesting price action in the 10-year yield, most noticeably the double top that has emerged within the 425-435bps range. On the heels of the Fed sticking to 75 basis points worth of cuts in the most recent interest rate projection, this could be the top in yields in 2024.
Key Developments:
Recent releases of Feb CPI and PPI were hotter than...
Next to Cocoa, Gasoline comes in 2nd place for the best total return performance in Q1 2024 amongst commodity markets. The infamous cup and handle pattern has emerged, adding a level of upside conviction in this trade.
Fundamentals:
Severe weather developments here in the USA and geopolitical supply chain disruption have caused refiner input costs to tick up...
Thursday marked the last trading day of the month and first quarter, which coincides with one of the more highly anticipated USDA reports of the year; quarterly stocks and prospective plantings.
The USDA estimates that there will be 86.51 million acres of soybeans planted in the U.S. this year, that was a hair below the average analyst estimate of 86.53 million...
Thursday marked the last trading day of the month and first quarter, which coincides with one of the more highly anticipated USDA reports of the year; quarterly stocks and prospective plantings.
The USDA estimates that there will be 90.036 million acres of corn planted in the U.S. this year, that was well below the average analyst estimate of 91.776 million and...
Silver has been trading within a wedge for about four years. As we approach the upper end of the resistance range, many traders are wondering if this can be the breakout that we have been waiting for.
What is behind this move?
There are a few potential catalysts that can explain the recent price action observed in March. Silver, similar to Gold, and BTC have...
We return to Fed Fund Futures, as the market has been repricing interest rate cut expectations. At the beginning of the year, there were 150bps of cuts expected by the market on the premise of a weaker economy, falling inflation, and a softer labor market. However, none of these expectations have materialized. The market has settled into a middle ground ahead of...
Following the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10th, BTC futures have rallied by more than 30%. Capital inflows have remained consistent in these ETFs, supporting higher Spot and Futures prices.
The Decoupling:
The new demand brought by the approval of the Spot ETFs have given both retail, and institutional investors the opportunity to add exposure to...
Crude oil futures are currently facing a confluence of factors that could significantly impact their trajectory in the coming months. One of the most significant developments is the potential extension of voluntary oil output cuts by OPEC+ into the second quarter, with the possibility of extending them until year-end.
Fundamentals:
On the monetary policy...
Copper futures prices rallied by more than 4% in the last week’s trade, and the metal is now approaching the year-to-date breakeven level. The question is: What is behind this rally?
Recent catalysts:
CPI and PPI came in well above estimates last week, sending interest rate yields higher. Industrial production numbers for the month of January contracted by...
In January 2024, the market had priced in more than 150 basis points worth of interest rate cuts. This suggested six 25-basis-point cuts throughout the year. Market participants believed that economic weakness was on the horizon, thus pricing in more cuts than the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Why the Change?
The continued strength of the labor...
