Natural gas futures have fallen by more than 30% year-to-date. Can the futures contract bounce off a historic support level, or are we facing liquidation risk?
Recent Developments:
As the western hemisphere had one of the warmest winters on record, the demand for natural gas had fallen precipitously. The recent export ban on natural gas producers, as well as...
Fundamental Outlook:
There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamental outlook for soybeans is bearish. Global ending stocks are now at all time highs per the last WASDE report, and export demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed considerably - currently down around 19% year-over-year. As South American harvest progresses, the outlook of the Brazilian soybean...
Technical Outlook:
Live Cattle futures have enjoyed a tremendous rally over the last 3 weeks - up nearly $10 since just the beginning of February. But is the rally showing fatigue? Prices are beginning to stall out near the 61.8% retracement of the all-time-highs in October to the lows in late December. Moreover, momentum signatures are slowing - showing...
There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamentals for corn remain bearish ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Last month, USDA caught many by surprise revising ‘23 corn yields to record-highs of 177.3 bushels per acre. Since then, corn futures have continuously grinded lower. But, could a short-covering rally be in the offing soon?
Per the last CFTC...
CME Australian dollar futures have pulled back to the neckline of the recent head and shoulders pattern, which presents bears with a formidable selling opportunity. Recent strength in the USD has certainly been a boon to Australian dollar futures, and with the influx of encouraging economic data in the U.S.over the past few weeks, it appears likely that...
Crude prices struggled in 2023. Although major production cuts were implemented by OPEC member countries, the USA has ramped up production, and concerns about global growth have emerged.
While economic growth and demand remain a headwind moving forward, the question is whether crude is trading at fair value or if it may be undervalued.
Inventories and...
Silver is currently at an inflection point. The industrial/precious metal has held major support as of late, adding a layer of optimism to traders and investors alike. Moving forward, we will need to continue to hold this major support level to keep our optimism intact.
Headwinds:
This week will be an inflection point for the silver market. Not only are we...
A rallying USD is putting ample pressure on Euro futures. Now that we’ve broken trendline support, it appears that we’re in the midst of a steeper correction. How low can the contract go?
Technical Outlook :
Euro futures trended higher for the duration of Q4 last year, with trendline support dating back to November first. Weakness in the USD, and favorable...
The Nasdaq has struggled in 2024, but recently major support was held. The release of Wednesday’s Retail Sales numbers showed a larger-than-expected increase at 0.6% vs. 0.4%. A noticeable increase was observed in General Merchandise Stores, which contributed 0.13%, and Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers, which contributed 0.21% in sales. These two components alone...
30-year Bond Futures are currently trading in proximity to crucial support levels, with particular
emphasis on the 200-Day EMA, which has consistently served as a support level since the
beginning of the trading year.
Key Developments:
As 2024 commenced, the markets found themselves at a crossroad regarding interest rate
expectations. There were concerns about...
The rally in Bitcoin futures has been impressive. But, without question, the rally is showing signs of fatigue. So the question is - are we gearing up for a pullback?
Technical Outlook :
Concurrent bearish divergence and a declining volume profile is a telltale sign of an impending correction. Why? Put simply, because all of the bulls are already in the...
Silver futures have faced challenges in the new year, but the market has established higher lows, instilling a layer of optimism for the precious metal.
Like all risk assets, silver will continue to be susceptible to changes in interest rate expectations and the path of the Federal Reserve. Recently, the bond market has tempered its expectations of an interest...
Soybean futures are off to a rough start in 2024. In the first week of trading, March soybeans were down nearly 42 cents on the back of beneficial rains sweeping Central Brazil. Selling pressure permeated into Monday’s session as well, with soybeans trading down into the mid 1230’s. So, the question now becomes, will March soybeans make new contract lows?
...
Gold had an impressive year in 2023, posting gains of 12.75%. However, the precious metal has failed to break and close above the psychologically significant 2100 handle and continues to face major overhead resistance. Will 2024 be a bullish cycle for Gold, or is this the top yet again?
Economic Weakness Priced In?
Gold, like many risk assets, remains...
The Nasdaq 100 rose fractionally on Friday, January 5th, marking it as the first positive day in 2024. While many consider the first trading week as indicative of the year's narrative, it was a rough start for the tech index.
The Nasdaq 100 surged over 54% in 2023, fueled by the Magnificent 7. Specifically, the contribution ratio of the top 10 names in the Nasdaq...
Crude oil has risen over 2% since the beginning of the 2024 trading year, marking it as an outperformer among risk assets. Recent price action has displayed higher lows, and higher highs are soon to be tested.
Recent Economic Data:
Recent jobs data displayed larger-than-expected wage growth, as reflected by Average Hourly Earnings. Wages grew at 4.1% YoY, more...
Recent price action in the CME's 30-day Fed Funds Futures has ruled out one cut for 2024. As of the end of 2023, the spread between the front-month Fed Funds Futures and the deferred (December) ones indicated a 150-155 basis points spread, suggesting that the markets were anticipating six cuts in 2024. However, recent developments have prompted a reevaluation,...
After putting in a bottom in mid-October, T-notes have rallied sharply higher. Patient bulls have been afforded few opportunities to enter the contracts on a pullback, but that may soon change. Pullbacks are a healthy part of any sustained rally, as they allow market participants to take profits from longer held positions, and reallocate capital in the direction...
