RBOB has witnessed significant selling since its late August highs, with looming economic growth fears and potential consumer weakness at play. However, recent jobs data paints an encouraging near-term picture for RBOB.
Recent Economic Developments:
Last week’s figures from the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model for Q4 reported a growth rate of 1.2%, falling short of...
Since reaching recent all-time highs, gold has outpaced silver, and despite a favorable risk asset environment, recent price action in silver has yet to validate a decisive upward move.
It's crucial to recognize that silver holds significant industrial applications, establishing a notable correlation with metals like copper and zinc. As these metals are considered...
Crude oil has experienced a decline of over $13 from its 2023 highs, reflecting traders' anticipation of weaker economic growth and a slowing consumer. Despite OPEC's announcement of additional production cuts and the ongoing efforts of member countries to defend prices throughout the year, it is evident that the market is bracing for diminished demand.
Recent...
Since the Treasury market bottomed in late October, the Nasdaq has experienced a robust surge of over 10%. As we approach the year-end, there's increasing speculation regarding the potential timing of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. While Mega-Cap Tech stocks have dominated headlines throughout the year, a noticeable shift in the narrative is underway...
The 30-year bond futures market has undergone notable shifts, commencing with a bottoming evident in late October. This trend has been significantly influenced by the unveiling of inflation figures, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in November.
Economic Data Driving Bonds:
PPI indicated deflationary pressures, while...
Copper futures have experienced a noteworthy trajectory, influenced by various market factors. The bottoming of 30-year bonds in late October, resulting in lower yields, has coincided with a rally in copper prices. Interest rates play a pivotal role, acting as a major headwind to construction spending and financed projects, thereby augmenting demand for copper.
A...
Dow Jones Futures (YM) have experienced a notable resurgence since the bottoming of 30-year bonds in late October, leading to lower yields. This rally in risk assets has propelled the Dow to trade at 52-week highs, overcoming the prevailing headwind of interest rates throughout much of the year.
Recent robust earnings from Salesforce positioned the Dow for...
Gold futures have embarked on a robust rally, propelling the precious metal to break all-time highs. This surge in gold prices has been influenced by a series of impactful events throughout the year. Initially, financial crisis fears emerged with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, creating uncertainty in the markets.
Gold’s Correlation to Yields...
Bitcoin futures (BTC) have emerged as one of the standout performers this year, showcasing a remarkable uptrend with gains exceeding 130% year-to-date. While debates continue regarding its fundamentals, there is no denying its susceptibility to macroeconomic influences and interest rates, positioning it as a risk asset.
Bitcoins Characteristics and Recent Price...
Ethereum futures (ETH) have showcased robust performance this year, marking an impressive gain of over 80% year-to-date, albeit trailing behind Bitcoin (BTC) with its remarkable surge of over 130%. However, this lag may present a compelling opportunity for ETH as a catch-up trade.
In the realm of cryptocurrency fundamentals, Ethereum distinguishes itself with a...
Silver prices are experiencing a robust rally as market sentiment anticipates a slower consumer pace and weakened economic growth heading into the new year. The precious metal, often sought as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty, is gaining traction as investors navigate an environment marked by concerns about a sluggish consumer and broader economic...
Amidst the current weakness in crude oil prices, an intriguing technical pattern is emerging—the inverse head and shoulders formation. Renowned for signaling bullish reversals, this pattern is unfolding against a backdrop of market sentiment reflecting concerns about weakened demand due to a slowing consumer.
The shoulders of the inverse head and shoulders...
As of late, Ethereum (ETH) prices find themselves at a crucial technical juncture, currently supported by a 50% retracement level relative to Bitcoin (BTC). This level gains significance as it represents a pivotal point where the asset's price is anticipated to either rebound or face further downward pressure.
A significant factor impacting the cryptocurrency...
Gold is Flying
Gold has enjoyed an impressive rally over the last 5 weeks - up 6% in the month of October. Historically, gold has always been the quintessential “flight-to-quality” asset. Whenever there are geopolitical or macroeconomic fears permeating financial markets, gold has outperformed. As it stands, December gold is on the brink of retesting the...
The S&P 500 (ES) has rallied over 8% from the lows in late October. November seasonality coupled with a rally in treasuries has provided relief for the broad index. Can we test 52-week highs before the end of the year?
As we look at recent inflation data (CPI), the month of October showed that the U.S. experienced no increase in inflation. This report was...
Over the long run, the inherent bias towards owning Gold has remained a steady trend, largely driven by its historical store of value and status as a hedge against economic uncertainty. However, the near-term outlook for Gold appears to be facing a series of headwinds, primarily due to recent developments in the financial landscape.
In a shift from its previous...
The January soybean contract closed Monday’s session rallying for the fifth day in a row - closing at the exact 61.8% retracement of the August 28th high and October 12th low. Can the contract continue to build on its recent strength? Or will this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectations (WASDE) report cut the rally short.
The Bullish Case :...
The recent rally of the 2-year Treasury has unfolded following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's shift toward a slightly dovish stance in the latest policy meeting. Powell's rhetoric emphasized the importance of proceeding cautiously with the path of interest rates, prompting a surge in demand and short covering in the bond market.
Against this backdrop, the...
