German Bund yields ( DE10Y ) are in the midst of a secular trend reversal after the breakout of both the 200-month moving average and a 40-year descending trend line.
Yields on the 10-year Bund have never gone over the 200-mma mark before.
The next barrier is the psychological threshold of 2%, which coincides with the September 2013 highs and 23.6% of the...
The US dollar-Chinese yuan pair ( USD/CNH ) has been trading on a bullish pennant pattern since April of this year, and is currently testing the critical 7.00 threshold, which corresponds to the close of July 2020 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 lows to May 2020 highs).
Following the PBoC's decision to reduce Chinese domestic banks' forex reserve...
The British pound ( GBP/USD ) hit an intraday low of 1.1406, temporarily breaking below Covid-20 lows and hitting the lowest level in 37 years, before recovering to 1.147 as of this writing.
The GBPUSD weekly chart reveals intriguing long-term patterns:
The major long-term trend is represented by a falling wedge, with the lower support line set by January...
The US dollar has defied gravity this year, rising 15% so far, with the DXY index on an exponential upward trend since May 2021, owing to strong macroeconomic factors that continue to support the Federal Reserve's plan to keep raising interest rates aggressively.
From the DXY monthly chart, we can see that the long-term major trend is still well in...
AUD/USD has formed a head and shoulders top pattern over the past month and half.
The daily RSI is pointing south, and the break below the neckline support at 0.684 yesterday now raises the prospect of a drop to the original low of 0.668.
Gold has fallen 2.1% in the last week, and it is now trading at its lowest level since July 21st, when it set the year's low of $1,680/oz.
Looking at the technical patterns, it appears that a double bottom is forming, as $1,680 is now only 1.5% below current prices.
A significant trend reversal could occur if this double bottom in prices is accompanied by a...
The publication of the August PMIs for the United Kingdom and the Eurozone affirms an ongoing economic slowdown in Europe. The UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 46 from 52.1 in July, indicating the first contraction in factory activity since May 2020 and well below expectations of 51.1.
In Germany, we saw a particularly weak Services PMI at 48.2 down from 49.7 and...
EUR/USD fell below parity once again today CAPITALCOM:EURUSD , but this time the reason is more complex than a divergence in Fed-ECB interest rate policy.
Recent price differences for natural gas between Europe and the US have become a key factor for the euro's decline, even more than 2-year Germany-US yield differentials.
As Dutch TTF prices reached new...
After a 37% decline from its peak of $5.03 per pound in early-March 2022, copper has risen 14% since July's lows.
However, the metal has recently been unable to overcome key resistance levels represented by the 50-day moving average and the descending channel trendline, as fresh worries about global growth slowdown and monetary policy tightening reemerged this...
Europe's wholesale natural gas price (Dutch Title Transfer Facility TTF ) rose to levels not seen since the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, bolstered by a mixture of continuing supply disruptions from Russia and soaring demand for power generation in the midst of persistent heatwaves across Europe.
Gazprom ( GAZP ) announced that European gas prices...
USD/CHF fundamental analysis
Switzerland's annual rate of inflation was 3.4% in July 2022, the same as in June. It was the highest inflation rate since October 1993, but it fell short of market expectations of a 3.5% increase. As a result, inflation remains well above the Swiss National Bank's 2% target, necessitating a steady pace of interest-rate...
There have been some interesting technical developments in the NZD/USD daily chart recently. The price action this week effectively broke above the 50-day moving average’s dynamic resistance at 0.627, with the Kiwi dollar extending to 0.645. The NZD/USD pair hasn’t traded above 50-dma since early April.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet next...
Newmont ( NEM ) stock prices have been falling precipitously, halving in value from highs of $86 in mid-April, due to lower gold prices and rising input costs weighing on the company's earnings.
On July 25, following the release of the disappointing second-quarter results, with EPS down to 0.46 (-30% lower than expected), the world's largest gold miner fell to...
Gold has risen 5.5% from its July 21 low of $1,680 per troy ounce, as market sentiment suddenly shifted to safe-haven assets in the aftermath of a slew of recession-risk events and rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan.
According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT)...
EUR/GBP fundamental analysis
The Bank of England (BoE) raised its Bank rate by half a percentage point to 1.75 percent at its August meeting, the highest rate hike in 27 years, owing to elevated inflationary pressures exacerbated by Europe's recent gas crisis.
However, the pound did not surge following the rate announcement since the Bank of England's policy...
USD/CAD fundamental analysis
A tight labour market with unemployment at historic lows that continues to boost consumption, support from interest rates (with a very hawkish Bank of Canada), and, finally, the persistently high energy prices of oil and gas, which act as a tailwind for the Canadian economy, all contribute to the Canadian dollar’s solid...
Silver has risen by 11% in the last two weeks. This performance comes after losing about 30% since March 8, indicating a so-called bear-market rally.
The main macro driver behind the silver price recovery has been a sharp drop in US bond yields, with the 1 0-year yield falling to 3-month lows at 2.6%, its lowest level since April, as the market...
The yen maintains its positive momentum by attracting buying flows from investors seeking refuge in safe-haven currencies as global recession fears grow.
The yen also received additional support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged last week that the BoJ should begin considering tools to end ultra-expansionary monetary policy,...
