CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Recap
Late Friday, Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1. This reflects a unanimous downgrade of the US, joining S&P and Fitch in stripping the US of its AAA status.
Would this result in a sell-off?
In our analysis, and consensus from the Street, is that it will be contained since the downgrade puts Moody’s in the same...
Our Long trade idea has already reached its target at 5921.75 in ES futures.
If you missed it, here’s a link to our article from the start of the week:
Note that, our entry was at 5861, while our stop was at 5837 in the example trade idea. The maximum low price was 5835.75 during Monday’s overnight session. Our stops could have been filled given this, however,...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Pointing to our previously written blog post (Liberation, Altercation or Doom) on March 31st. A mix of all scenarios played out.
Global universal tariffs with reciprocal tariffs layered on top. It resulted in a huge sell-off on April 2nd.
After months of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing economic friction, the US and China have agreed to hit...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Big Picture Context
Please see related trade idea.
In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully.
See chart image below reviewing...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Recent Market Performance
ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th...
This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month.
The Federal Reserve is currently in its...
CME:6B1!
This trade idea is built on very simple premises.
Simplicity in trading is what we all strive for. Where possible, we should aim to simplify our strategies rather than complicate them with excessive information—unless the additional inputs add clear, actionable value to the trade thesis. While that holds true in this analysis, for the sake of clarity...
NYMEX:CL1!
In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil...
CBOT:ZN1!
COMEX:GC1!
CME:6E1!
CME:6J1!
US Bond Market:
The US bond market—specifically US 10-year Notes—has long been considered a safe haven amid market turmoil. Historically, during periods of uncertainty, investors have flocked to these “flight to safety” assets, resulting in increased demand for US 10-year notes. Mortgage rates also tend to...
CME:BTC1!
Surprisingly, the price of bitcoin and bitcoin futures have held up well compared to stocks given that Bitcoin is a high risk, highly volatile crypto currency.
It is almost as if hedge funds, and other investors have not had to liquidate their BTC exposure due to margin calls.
Open Interest has been stable and average daily volume is holding up....
CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Update:
The escalation of reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures have sent shockwaves through markets, with widespread selloffs across asset classes, including gold. Fund managers and investors were forced to liquidate positions to cover margin calls. The likelihood of a global recession has surged, with Goldman Sachs raising the...
COMEX:GC1!
Gold Futures Analysis:
Gold futures are currently presenting a clearer picture compared to equity index futures. Crude oil futures, on the other hand, have already priced in much of the recent tariff news, with a reversal observed from the 2025 mid-range back towards $65. Despite heightened volatility, the WTI crude oil market remains relatively...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Quick Update
The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries.
As April 2...
NYMEX:CL1!
In this tradingview blog, we go over our technical setup and trade idea for Crude oil.
It is important to note we also have DOE inventory numbers coming at 10:30 ET.
Once the release has settled in, the trade idea can be framed using either of our two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Liquidity Trap
Rejection above March Monthly Open or Yearly Open and...
CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Analogy
The current market landscape and macroeconomic environment can be compared to the dynamics of "sticks and carrots." The market is largely headline-driven, responding to the shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance, political events (such as the ongoing influence of the Trump administration), and sidelined...
CME_MINI:ES1!
In this TradingView blog, we will recap our trade plan posted on March 10th, 2025.
Please note that this is a recap, and since then, we have also published our updated price map and weekly plan for the current week. Today is also the Federal Reserve's decision day.
Here is our updated price map from the weekly plan published on March 10th, 2025:
...
CME_MINI:ES1!
As we discussed in last week’s TradingView blog, the ES futures are currently undergoing a 10% correction. You can access the full context through the link here.
Rollover Notice:
Today marks the rollover of ES futures to the June 2025 contract. The rollover adjustment using Friday’s settlement prices for ESH2025 and ESM2025 is +52.25. To map...
