It's been a strong trend in EUR/USD over the past few weeks. Last week saw a minor pullback with support showing at prior trendline resistance, and that was followed by an aggressive bullish breakout that pushed up to fresh yearly highs yesterday.
The move is well priced-in at this point and from the daily chart, RSI pushed deeply into overbought territory with...
EUR/USD has surged to highs not seen since July 2023. However, such has been the rush to buy since the start of August, it’s now sitting at extremely overbought levels on RSI (14) on the daily.
That should be a worry for late-to-the-party longs considering that outside the early stages of the pandemic, whenever EUR/USD has been this overbought, it’s coincided...
GBP/USD has seen a tremendous surge over the past two weeks. Cable was trading closer to 1.2700 earlier this month before rising 8 of the last 9 days (and currently working on 9 of the last 10) to hit a 13-month high at 1.3050 as of writing.
Despite the impressive short-term momentum (or perhaps because of it), GBP/USD is now reaching an overbought extreme. As...
NZD/JPY has rebounded over six big figures from its August nadir, enjoying relative calm in markets which has enabled carry trades to be reestablished. But the bullish price action is showing signs of fatigue; RSI (14) has broken its uptrend while Tuesday’s daily candle looks suspiciously like a topping patten, rejected from the intersection of horizontal...
The price of gold extends the advance from the previous week to set a fresh record high ($2532), with the recent advance in bullion pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards overbought territory.
Gold Price Outlook
The price of gold may reestablish the bullish trend from earlier this year following the break above the July high ($2484) as the 50-Day...
Weak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same...
Fed rate cut pricing appears rich relative to recent data flow. And USD/JPY remains beholden to moves in short-dated US interest rates. So, unless we see a hard economic landing, downside for US yields, and USD/JPY, may be limited in the near-term. It’s going against the grain a little but buying USD/JPY dips is favoured.
The daily USD/JPY chart tells the story;...
The price of oil may attempt to test the monthly low ($71.67) as it extends the decline from the previous week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Failure to hold above the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region raises the scope for a move towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) with a breach below the January low ($69.28)...
Having broken to record highs on Friday and with a week to speculate on what Fed chair Jerome Powell may signal on the US rate outlook at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, the bullish breakout in gold could easily extend in the coming days.
The price action today has done nothing to undermine that view, with the price testing former channel resistance before...
The US dollar selling resumed and the AUD/USD having outperformed yesterday on the back of stronger Aussie data, has broken out above 0.6635-45 resistance just now. Can it hold its gains into the close? The breakout certainly suggests more gains could be on the way in the early parts of next week. Apart from PMI data, there is not much Aussie data to look forward...
Friday’s close looms as particularly important for USD/JPY with a break back above the Jan 2023 uptrend setting the platform for potential further upside next week. As things stand, another leg higher will fulfill the criteria to meet a morning star pattern on the weekly timeframe, adding to the case for setting longs with bearish momentum also starting to ebb....
In today’s turbulent markets, it is a timeless reminder to discuss volatility, how experienced traders can navigate volatility and manage their risk, and why it’s important to always be prepared. Recently, we saw dramatic price action with the USD/JPY pair influenced by the Bank of Japan’s policies or even gold’s march to all-time highs against the Dollar. In...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is rallying again today after strong retail sales and jobless claims data alleviated recession concerns.
The 30-stock index has now re-established itself above the psychologically-significant 40K level, opening the door for a bullish continuation toward the record highs near 41,250 next.
As long as 40K holds, the technical bias...
Looking at the daily chart, GBP/USD is testing a key resistance level near 1.2860. This level capped rallies in Cable in March and June, and as of writing, is serving as an area of selling pressure in today’s trade.
From a broader view, GBP/USD remains in a long-term uptrend with the exchange rate above both the 200- and 50-day MAs, which are themselves trending...
The recovery in US small caps has been unconvincing over the past fortnight, struggling for upside unlike mega-cap rivals. Russell 2000 futures have been capped below the 50-day moving average for much of this period, running into sellers constantly above this level. Wednesday’s rejection above 2132.6 warns of building reversal risk, putting a potential break of...
The recent rebound in GBP/JPY appears to be stalling as it struggles to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows.
GBP/JPY Outlook
Keep in mind, GBP/JPY reversed ahead of the January low (178.74) to pull the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory, and the exchange rate may further retrace the decline from the monthly high (193.26) as...
The AUD/USD has found a bit of resistance around the 0.6640/0.6650 area ahead of the release of US CPI shortly.
The small pullback is largely due to profit-taking ahead of US inflation data and Australian employment data due for release in the early hours of Thursday. The underlying trend is bullish and so long as we don't see a hot inflation report from the US,...
NZD/USD has reversed the downside break sparked by US recession fears, smashing through the downtrend it had been trading in since early June on Tuesday. With RSI and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, risks are skewing towards further gains ahead of today’s RBNZ interest rate decision.
While economists are evenly split on whether the bank will cut...
