USD/MXN may threaten the opening range for September as it struggles to test the August high (20.2271).
USD/MXN Rate Outlook
USD/MXN continues to pull back from the monthly high (20.1496) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70, with a break/close below the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the...
USD/CAD has drifted lower today, suggesting that investors are not too alarmed by the jobless rate rising to a 7 year high of 6.6% as we found out on Friday. Last week saw the BoC cut rates for the third time in as many meetings. Investors are expecting a couple of more cuts before the year is out, particular if the jobs data shows further weakness. However, this...
Looking at the chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the world’s reserve currency remains in a well-defined downtrend despite last week’s bounce. The near-term reaction in the US dollar will likely follow the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Fed (bullish) vs. 50bps rate cut (bearish) as outlined in the chart above, but ultimately, the dominant downtrend and...
The US dollar continues to fall across the board, especially against haven currencies like the Japanese yen. But it is also weaker against the more high beta currencies too, despite the ongoing struggles in the stock markets. The NZD/USD stands ready to benefit from the weakening US dollar, especially in the event we see calm return to stocks.
The NZD/USD has...
The Fed has made it clear that a further weakening in US labour market would be unwelcome, especially if it leads to a sharp increase in unemployment. With leading indicators continuing to deteriorate, and given the Fed thinks policy is already very restrictive, the risk of the FOMC kicking off its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut looks underpriced. It could...
EUR/USD is setting the monthly opening-range just above yearly-open support at 1.1038 . Looking for possible inflection off this mark.
A break below the median-line would threaten a larger bull-market correction towards the January high-day close (HDC) / 38.2% retracement at 1.0942/72 - losses would need to be limited to this threshold for the April rally to...
The price of oil clears the June low (69.42) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The selloff in the price of oil may persist as it trades to a fresh weekly low ($68.95), with a break/close below $68.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) opening up the February low ($66.60).
Next area of interest comes in around...
Gold has been in consolidation mode in the last few sessions ahead of key US data. But the slow and steady climb is exactly what the bulls want to see, reinforcing a bullish outlook for gold. Shallow pullbacks, coupled with higher highs and higher lows, are the hallmarks of a strong upward trend.
Right now, the trend remains firmly bullish and will likely stay...
Inflation has become one of the most important topics in modern economics because of its recent prominence, affecting forex pairs, commodities, as well as everyday goods and services. In this post, our team will provide educational clarity on inflation, what it means, and the important definitions to understand whether you're new to markets or a savvy pro who...
The USD/CAD pair faces a potentially volatile week due to major economic data releases from the US and Canada. Key events include:
1. US Data Releases: Critical reports like the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s August jobs report will influence the U.S. dollar. A strong jobs report could stabilize the dollar, while weaker data may lead...
Kiwi is looking toppy after printing a shooting star last Thursday, following the bearish reversal through .62764 with two back-to-back declines before easing lower again today. With RSI (14) breaking its uptrend, bullish momentum is waning. While not confirmed by MACD, the Kiwi looks heavy on the charts. Much will be determined by the price action around .6218, a...
Sitting in the middle of its recent range at the beginning of a week laden with risk events, 146.50 looms as a potential level USD/JPY traders can build setups around. With price and momentum breaking their respective downtrends last week, and with no meaningful sign of further deterioration in the US labour market based on recent jobless claims data, buying dips...
Media reports suggest Chinese authorities are considering allowing homeowners to refinance up to $5.4 trillion in mortgages at significantly lower interest rates, providing the type of circuit-breaker that could boost consumption and reverse the downturn in the property sector. While it’s not the first time we’ve seen speculation over measures to boost flagging...
USD/CHF trades to a fresh weekly high (0.8494) after testing the January low (0.8401).
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
USD/CHF appears to be defending the yearly range as it bounces back ahead of the December low (0.8333), with the rebound in the exchange rate pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory.
A break/close above the 0.8550 (78.6%...
Nvidia’s pain may be the Russell 2000s gain, if sentiment towards the US economic outlook holds up. The rotation of capital out of AI names has to go somewhere, and as we’ve seen over recent months, that’s often been into US small cap stocks which trade at substantially lower valuations.
While the price action since Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday hasn’t been...
Silver’s been on a nice run recently, benefitting from an easing of concerns towards the trajectory for US economy. That’s because unlike gold which has been heavily influenced by movements in the US dollar and bond yields, silver has been extremely correlated with copper futures over the past month, another industrial metal closely tied to economic...
GBP/USD has been on an absolute bullish tear over the last 3 weeks. The pair has rallied from below 1.27 earlier this month to trade above 1.32 as of writing, a 500+ pip rally with rates rising in 13 of the last 15 trading days.
Not surprisingly, the pair is clearly overbought after such a strong move, but that’s no guarantee that it will necessarily pull back...
Looking at A50 on the daily, you can see the index has been stuck in a downtrend since the middle of May, with only brief countertrend rallies interrupting the broader move lower. The index looks to be in another right now, grinding higher after bottoming in early August. However, the price has been rejected multiple times at the 200-day moving average, including...
