It's been a painful first two months of Q3 for the US Dollar. Bears started the push shortly after the July open, and with USD/JPY carry unwind starting shortly after, there's been a constant and near-continuous push from sellers.
At this point, the USD finished last week with RSI in oversold territory for the first time since January of 2018. That episode...
With little meaningful US data on the calendar until Thursday, the boost provided to the soft economic landing narrative from Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday likely has room to run. For a cyclical currency such as AUD/USD, that’s good news for bulls.
Monday’s minor pullback looks corrective in nature and may reflect unease at the fluid situation in the Middle...
In this educational lesson, we will explain the concept of swing trading so that aspiring traders can learn how it works and what it means. Swing trading is considered a short to medium-term strategy that aims to trade specific market “swings” or oscillations within a broader trend. Swing trading is not day trading, and it is not long-term investing. Instead, it...
Russell 2000 futures sit on uptrend support, making Friday’s close important following Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
To get excited about US small caps, you need a soft economic landing and lower borrowing costs given many of its constituents are unprofitable and reliant on capital markets. Given Powell will discuss rate cuts and flag confidence in the...
Turning our attention to GBP/JPY, there's a clear technical setup: The pair saw a massive selloff through late July and early August, culminating in a brief test of the 1-year lows (in this case at 179.00) before forming a gradual recovery/bearish flag setup below the 200-day MA.
Moving forward, bulls will want to see if GBP/JPY can break durably above its...
Looking at EUR/JPY , the cross nearly fell to its 1-year low near the 154.00 handle in the peak of the panic on August 5th, but the exchange rate has since recovered more than 1200 pips to trade back in the 162.00s as of writing.
However, EUR/JPY’s recovery has been far more tepid and gradual than the initial selloff, creating a possible “bearish flag” pattern on...
It's been a strong trend in EUR/USD over the past few weeks. Last week saw a minor pullback with support showing at prior trendline resistance, and that was followed by an aggressive bullish breakout that pushed up to fresh yearly highs yesterday.
The move is well priced-in at this point and from the daily chart, RSI pushed deeply into overbought territory with...
EUR/USD has surged to highs not seen since July 2023. However, such has been the rush to buy since the start of August, it’s now sitting at extremely overbought levels on RSI (14) on the daily.
That should be a worry for late-to-the-party longs considering that outside the early stages of the pandemic, whenever EUR/USD has been this overbought, it’s coincided...
GBP/USD has seen a tremendous surge over the past two weeks. Cable was trading closer to 1.2700 earlier this month before rising 8 of the last 9 days (and currently working on 9 of the last 10) to hit a 13-month high at 1.3050 as of writing.
Despite the impressive short-term momentum (or perhaps because of it), GBP/USD is now reaching an overbought extreme. As...
NZD/JPY has rebounded over six big figures from its August nadir, enjoying relative calm in markets which has enabled carry trades to be reestablished. But the bullish price action is showing signs of fatigue; RSI (14) has broken its uptrend while Tuesday’s daily candle looks suspiciously like a topping patten, rejected from the intersection of horizontal...
The price of gold extends the advance from the previous week to set a fresh record high ($2532), with the recent advance in bullion pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards overbought territory.
Gold Price Outlook
The price of gold may reestablish the bullish trend from earlier this year following the break above the July high ($2484) as the 50-Day...
Weak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same...
Fed rate cut pricing appears rich relative to recent data flow. And USD/JPY remains beholden to moves in short-dated US interest rates. So, unless we see a hard economic landing, downside for US yields, and USD/JPY, may be limited in the near-term. It’s going against the grain a little but buying USD/JPY dips is favoured.
The daily USD/JPY chart tells the story;...
The price of oil may attempt to test the monthly low ($71.67) as it extends the decline from the previous week.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Failure to hold above the $72.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $73.20 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region raises the scope for a move towards $71.50 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) with a breach below the January low ($69.28)...
Having broken to record highs on Friday and with a week to speculate on what Fed chair Jerome Powell may signal on the US rate outlook at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, the bullish breakout in gold could easily extend in the coming days.
The price action today has done nothing to undermine that view, with the price testing former channel resistance before...
The US dollar selling resumed and the AUD/USD having outperformed yesterday on the back of stronger Aussie data, has broken out above 0.6635-45 resistance just now. Can it hold its gains into the close? The breakout certainly suggests more gains could be on the way in the early parts of next week. Apart from PMI data, there is not much Aussie data to look forward...
Friday’s close looms as particularly important for USD/JPY with a break back above the Jan 2023 uptrend setting the platform for potential further upside next week. As things stand, another leg higher will fulfill the criteria to meet a morning star pattern on the weekly timeframe, adding to the case for setting longs with bearish momentum also starting to ebb....
In today’s turbulent markets, it is a timeless reminder to discuss volatility, how experienced traders can navigate volatility and manage their risk, and why it’s important to always be prepared. Recently, we saw dramatic price action with the USD/JPY pair influenced by the Bank of Japan’s policies or even gold’s march to all-time highs against the Dollar. In...
