Crude price have dropped into confluent support at the objective yearly open / 2024 low-day close (LDC) at 72.14/93- looking for a reaction here.
A break / daily close below would threaten another leg lower in price towards the December LDC at 69.81 and the 2023 LDC at 68.57 .
Initial resistance at the July LDC near 75.22 with medium-term bearish...
The NZD/USD has bounced strongly off its overnight lows, following a sharp drop below 0.5860 support where it had bounced in July. If it can post a daily close above its opening level, it will created a hammer-like candle on the daily to suggest a major has been formed. But let's wait for that confirmation and US ISM services PMI data before turning bullish on the...
Bitcoin is getting obliterated. But if risk appetite suddenly returns, it’s unlikely to stay that way. Having fallen into overbought territory on RSI (14) and with the price testing former resistance at $52956, i’m interested to see whether there’s any buyers lurking below. So, I’m going to see what happens around this level in the near-term.
If the price...
GBP/JPY approaches the June low (197.21) after closing below the 50-Day SMA (201.76) for the first time since January.
GBP/JPY Outlook
GBP/JPY falls to a fresh monthly low (197.78) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from the start of the week, with a breach below the June low (197.21) raising the scope for a move towards the 195.70 (61.8%...
We have seen a big drop in bond yields in the aftermath of the US jobs report which disappointed expectations. So, in theory gold should head higher and remain supported on the dips. But if stocks continue selling then forced liquidation of leveraged long trades could impact gold negatively. I think that's partly what happened after gold initially rallied earlier...
GBP/USD plunged nearly 1% today with the post-BoE plunge taking the pound back into yearly open support at 1.2731 - looking for a reaction here.
A weekly close below this threshold would threaten a test of the July open / 200DMA near 1.2640 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.2584 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
INtiial resistance now back at ...
AUD/JPY is the quintessential "carry trade" pair among the majors given Australia's clear link to global growth and Japan's persistent near-zero interest rates.
After a strong start to the year, the pair has dropped over -1100 pips (-10%) in just the last 3 weeks along, underscoring the risk with crowded carry trades. A near-term bounce is possible, but with the...
The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a big selloff Wednesday as the Fed emphasized the downside risks in the labor market. Moving forward, the key level to watch will be the 4-month low near 103.65. If we see a soft jobs report, traders could increase bets on a more aggressive 50bps interest rate cut from the Fed, taking the greenback below its key support zone in the...
I think today's big reversal qualifies as a key reversal day on oil. The rally means WTI is forming a three-bar reversal pattern on its daily time frame. Prices have been supported by further sharper-than-expected drop in US oil stocks, suggesting US driving seasons is well and truly underway. A close above the shaded area on the chart in the next couple of days...
BOJ rates pricing is as hawkish as it’s been since before the GFC. At the same time, expectations for rate cuts from the Fed over the next 12 months are nearing levels seen in January.
For a FX pair with a rolling daily correlation of 0.95 over the past month with two-year yield spreads between the US and Japan, it suggests there is only limited scope for...
It’s always wise to revisit the basics of markets. The foundation of successful trading is built around continuous education, disciplined practice, and a willingness to learn. Here are 10 tips for all traders:
1. Education First: Educate yourself thoroughly in the market before you begin. Some of the smartest people on the planet trade daily, and before you go...
The New Zealand dollar is a binary bet on how investor risk appetite evolves this week. Having plunged over the past fortnight before bouncing off horizontal support, a setup is in place to look for a reversal. We just need risk assets to oblige.
To reinforce how influential risk assets have been on the Kiwi, its rolling daily correlation with Nasdaq futures...
USD/CHF appears to be reversing ahead of the March low (0.8730) as it extends the rebound from the monthly low (0.8777).
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
USD/CHF rallies for the second day following the failed attempt to close below the 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension) region, with a breach above the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci...
US stock indices have dropped after a positive open. But the path of least resistance remains to the upside ahead of key events this week including the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday and the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
The Dow Jones outperformed global indices with a 1.55% gain on Friday, positioning it well for the upcoming week. In contrast, the...
As of writing on Monday morning, traders are pricing in about a 60% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, leaving meaningful doubt on how the meeting will ultimately resolve.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD remains within its 2-week bearish channel, though it is bouncing back to previous-support-turned-resistance near 1.2850. For...
Germany's DAX index has spent the last six months or so coiling within an ever-tighter symmetrical triangle pattern centered at 18,500.
With other non-tech-focused indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and FTSE 100 breaking out of their own consolidation patterns, German investors will be hoping for a similar bullish break to record highs near 19K....
From dire to delightful in the space of two sessions – that’s was the rollercoaster ride UK FTSE 100 bulls had to endure late last week with futures taking out stops layered below 8152 before reversing hard on Friday, taking out the 50-day moving average and downtrend resistance dating back to the record highs set in May. Closing at the highest level since June...
Sometimes all that a trader needs is a single line in the sand.
And last week, just as in early-May, that was the case in USD/JPY. The same 151.95 level that marked the high in 2022 and 2023 has come in for support a second time so far in 2024 trade, and that was the level where the bleeding had stopped on Thursday.
Interestingly this also shows as RSI pushes...
