WTI was testing a key support area after falling for the third consecutive day. As can be seen on the chart, US oil was testing support around the upper end of the 80.00 - 81.50 support area, which had been resistance in the past. Here, we are expecting to see a rebound given the bullish price structure of crude oil over the past several days. If so, another test...
WTI Crude Oil has been trending consistently lower dating back to Friday reverting to the $80 "magnet" that has continually attracted prices since Q4 2022.
In a rangebound market like this, traders may consider selling rallies meaningfully above $80 and buying dips toward $70, using oscillators like RSI to identify overbought and oversold markets.
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Gold is making another run at its 2-week high near $2385, even with China stopping its purchases for a 2nd straight month.
A breakout here could expose the record highs near $2450 in short order. Watch US CPI as a possible fundamental catalyst in one direction or another.
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Today’s RBNZ rate decision could be an nothing-burger or a very big deal. I doubt we’ll see anything in between. There are no updated forecasts, nor a press conference from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr. Just a statement. The last time that occurred it was one of the shortest updates in history.
Risks for NZD/USD appear skewed to the downside considering the RBNZ...
AUD/JPY may attempt to test the 1991 high (109.70) as it pushes above the opening range for July.
AUD/JPY Rate Outlook
AUD/JPY continues to register fresh yearly highs after clearing the 2007 high (107.82), with the ongoing rally in the exchange rate keeping Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory.
AUD/JPY may continue to appreciate as the RSI...
Euro is exhausting just ahead of the upper bounds of a massive multi-month consolidation pattern. An embedded near-term ascending pitchfork formation has been guiding this recovery with price turning from the 75% parallel late-last week.
Initial support rests with the 200DMA (~1.0784) backed by 1.0755- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is...
As with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 continues to rally day after day with nary a meaningful dip since April.
While the 14-day RSI isn't at it's most overbought level this year, it is showing a potential bearish divergence at the recent highs, where price makes a higher high and the momentum indicator makes a lower high (so far).
Index traders will be watching...
The S&P 500 continues its relentless uptrend as we start the second half of the year, but it is notable that the 14-day RSI indicator is at its highest level since 2023. While not a sign of an imminent pullback in and of itself, it does suggest that the short-term risks are tilting to the downside ahead of Fed Chairman Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony and the...
Chinese iron ore port inventories are bloated and continue to increase, hitting more than two-year highs last week. When you throw seasonality into the mix, the build is occurring at a time when inventories should be drawing fast. It’s extremely rare, raising questions whether iron ore can hold above $100 when the largest source of steel demand globally – China’s...
BTC/USD extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its lowest level since August.
BTC/USD Outlook
A double-top formation has taken shape as BTC/USD failed to defend the opening range for June, and a move below 30 in the RSI likely to be accompanied by a further decline in Bitcoin like the price action...
The GBP/USD has broken above its bearish trend line established since June 2021, indicating the potential for a significant upward move, possibly reaching the psychological level of 1.3000. But it could rise far beyond that level should this week's US CPI data disappoint expectations. If so, last July’s high of 1.3142, or even higher levels, should come into...
AUD/USD has been in congestion for the entirety of 2024 trade, and we can even span back to the 2023 open when DXY went into a range to notice a similar mean reverting quality here.
The past two weeks has seen the pair make a move outside of that digestion and bulls are nearing a key test at a resistance zone defined by two fibonacci retracements, plotted from...
In the absence of an unexpected reacceleration in US inflationary pressures or unlikely hawkish pivot from Jerome Powell when he appears before lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, whether the US dollar can reverse the bearish move seen last week is questionable. With Fed rate cut expectations growing as US data continues to soften, the path of least resistance...
The AUD/USD is the one to watch in the event we see a negative dollar reaction to today's US jobs report, which is due for release shortly. A headline print of 191K is expected, but watch out for revisions to prior months' data too.
AUD/USD's recent performance points higher
The AUD/USD has been performing well due to strong Australian inflation and a...
USD/JPY has printed a bullish reversal pattern on the 4H timeframe, bouncing off uptrend support in the process. And with horrible Japanese household spending data showing spending slumped 1.8% in the year to May against expectations for an increase of 0.1%, the likelihood of the BOJ delivering further near-term monetary policy tightening looks to be dimming fast....
US economic exceptionalism has been hard to question in recent years, surprising to the upside relative not only to expectations but other developed nations. But that narrative now faces a major test. Data is undershooting more often than not, suggesting activity is not only slowing but potentially rolling over rapidly.
With US inflation data indicating the...
GBP/JPY extends the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week to register a fresh yearly high (206.17), with the recent advance in the exchange rate pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into overbought territory.
GBP/JPY Outlook
The move above 70 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in GBP/JPY like the price action from...
Gold and silver have shown positive movement over the week, keeping their long-term bullish trends intact, as characterised by higher highs and higher lows.
Gold hit a new all-time high in May and has since been consolidating, which has eased 'overbought' conditions in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly charts.
On shorter time frames, a...
