Inflation has become one of the most important topics in modern economics because of its recent prominence, affecting forex pairs, commodities, as well as everyday goods and services. In this post, our team will provide educational clarity on inflation, what it means, and the important definitions to understand whether you're new to markets or a savvy pro who...
The USD/CAD pair faces a potentially volatile week due to major economic data releases from the US and Canada. Key events include:
1. US Data Releases: Critical reports like the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s August jobs report will influence the U.S. dollar. A strong jobs report could stabilize the dollar, while weaker data may lead...
Kiwi is looking toppy after printing a shooting star last Thursday, following the bearish reversal through .62764 with two back-to-back declines before easing lower again today. With RSI (14) breaking its uptrend, bullish momentum is waning. While not confirmed by MACD, the Kiwi looks heavy on the charts. Much will be determined by the price action around .6218, a...
Sitting in the middle of its recent range at the beginning of a week laden with risk events, 146.50 looms as a potential level USD/JPY traders can build setups around. With price and momentum breaking their respective downtrends last week, and with no meaningful sign of further deterioration in the US labour market based on recent jobless claims data, buying dips...
Media reports suggest Chinese authorities are considering allowing homeowners to refinance up to $5.4 trillion in mortgages at significantly lower interest rates, providing the type of circuit-breaker that could boost consumption and reverse the downturn in the property sector. While it’s not the first time we’ve seen speculation over measures to boost flagging...
USD/CHF trades to a fresh weekly high (0.8494) after testing the January low (0.8401).
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
USD/CHF appears to be defending the yearly range as it bounces back ahead of the December low (0.8333), with the rebound in the exchange rate pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory.
A break/close above the 0.8550 (78.6%...
Nvidia’s pain may be the Russell 2000s gain, if sentiment towards the US economic outlook holds up. The rotation of capital out of AI names has to go somewhere, and as we’ve seen over recent months, that’s often been into US small cap stocks which trade at substantially lower valuations.
While the price action since Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday hasn’t been...
Silver’s been on a nice run recently, benefitting from an easing of concerns towards the trajectory for US economy. That’s because unlike gold which has been heavily influenced by movements in the US dollar and bond yields, silver has been extremely correlated with copper futures over the past month, another industrial metal closely tied to economic...
GBP/USD has been on an absolute bullish tear over the last 3 weeks. The pair has rallied from below 1.27 earlier this month to trade above 1.32 as of writing, a 500+ pip rally with rates rising in 13 of the last 15 trading days.
Not surprisingly, the pair is clearly overbought after such a strong move, but that’s no guarantee that it will necessarily pull back...
Looking at A50 on the daily, you can see the index has been stuck in a downtrend since the middle of May, with only brief countertrend rallies interrupting the broader move lower. The index looks to be in another right now, grinding higher after bottoming in early August. However, the price has been rejected multiple times at the 200-day moving average, including...
It's been a painful first two months of Q3 for the US Dollar. Bears started the push shortly after the July open, and with USD/JPY carry unwind starting shortly after, there's been a constant and near-continuous push from sellers.
At this point, the USD finished last week with RSI in oversold territory for the first time since January of 2018. That episode...
With little meaningful US data on the calendar until Thursday, the boost provided to the soft economic landing narrative from Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday likely has room to run. For a cyclical currency such as AUD/USD, that’s good news for bulls.
Monday’s minor pullback looks corrective in nature and may reflect unease at the fluid situation in the Middle...
In this educational lesson, we will explain the concept of swing trading so that aspiring traders can learn how it works and what it means. Swing trading is considered a short to medium-term strategy that aims to trade specific market “swings” or oscillations within a broader trend. Swing trading is not day trading, and it is not long-term investing. Instead, it...
Russell 2000 futures sit on uptrend support, making Friday’s close important following Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
To get excited about US small caps, you need a soft economic landing and lower borrowing costs given many of its constituents are unprofitable and reliant on capital markets. Given Powell will discuss rate cuts and flag confidence in the...
Turning our attention to GBP/JPY, there's a clear technical setup: The pair saw a massive selloff through late July and early August, culminating in a brief test of the 1-year lows (in this case at 179.00) before forming a gradual recovery/bearish flag setup below the 200-day MA.
Moving forward, bulls will want to see if GBP/JPY can break durably above its...
Looking at EUR/JPY , the cross nearly fell to its 1-year low near the 154.00 handle in the peak of the panic on August 5th, but the exchange rate has since recovered more than 1200 pips to trade back in the 162.00s as of writing.
However, EUR/JPY’s recovery has been far more tepid and gradual than the initial selloff, creating a possible “bearish flag” pattern on...
It's been a strong trend in EUR/USD over the past few weeks. Last week saw a minor pullback with support showing at prior trendline resistance, and that was followed by an aggressive bullish breakout that pushed up to fresh yearly highs yesterday.
The move is well priced-in at this point and from the daily chart, RSI pushed deeply into overbought territory with...
EUR/USD has surged to highs not seen since July 2023. However, such has been the rush to buy since the start of August, it’s now sitting at extremely overbought levels on RSI (14) on the daily.
That should be a worry for late-to-the-party longs considering that outside the early stages of the pandemic, whenever EUR/USD has been this overbought, it’s coincided...
