Crude oil prices gave up their earlier gains, to turn modestly lower on the day after the release of the EIA weekly US oil inventories, before bouncing off their lows ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Watch the closing prices. A daily close in the red may lead to some follow-up selling in the days ahead, given that WTI has arrived and reacted negatively from the...
WTI has plunged more than 17.3% off the April highs with the decline responding to confluent support today at 72.14/93 - a region defined by the objective yearly open and the 2024 low-day close (LDC).
Looking for a reaction down here. . .
Initial resistance now eyed at 75.33 with bearish invalidation now lowered to 77.67 .
A break lower exposes the...
Aussie is testing confluent support here at the 38.2% retracement near 6580 . Looking for a reaction heading into US CPI / FOMC.
Ultimately, losses would need to be limited to 6538 IF price is still heading higher with a breach above 6690 needed to mark uptrend resumption.
Bottom line- threat for an exhaustion low over the next few days- Watch the weekly...
BTC/USD trades to a fresh monthly low ($66561) following the failed attempt to test the April high ($72727).
BTC/USD Outlook
BTC/USD fails to defend the opening range for June as it extends the decline from last week, with a break/close below the $62780 (100% Fibonacci extension) to $64850 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a move towards...
Sentiment in Europe remained pessimistic for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the continent's political future were underscored by the EUR/GBP reaching its lowest level since August 2022, alongside a sharp decline in French bonds and stocks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year French bonds increased by another 10 basis points as bond prices fell for the...
Crude oil prices rose on Monday, making back its losses from Friday and some. While there is hope for increased fuel demand as we head to the summer months, today’s recovery comes on the back of a three-week drop. Prices have been held back in recent weeks because of various factors, ranging from concerns over increased non-OPEC supply and worries about the demand...
The price of gold may attempt to retrace the decline from the May high ($2450) as it breaks out of the range bound price action from earlier this week.
Gold Price Outlook
The price of gold trades back above the 50-Day SMA ($2341) as it climbs to a fresh weekly high ($2379), with a break/close above the $2363 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) to $2396 (78.6%...
The US Dollar has been pulling back since May 1st, which was the last FOMC rate decision. The Fed sounded dovish there and that led to a sizable pullback.
But it was the data in the month of May that really seemed to help sellers. The NFP report on the 3rd was the first NFP report with the headline number printing below expectations since November. And then the...
GBP/JPY appears to be defending the weekly low (197.21) as it no longer carves a series of lower highs and lows.
GBP/JPY Outlook
GBP/JPY may attempt to retrace the decline from the start of the week as it reflects an inside-day candle, with a move above the 199.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 200.50 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the May high...
USD/CHF attempts to retrace the decline from earlier this week as it bounces back from the 50-Day SMA (0.9086).
USD/CHF Rate Outlook
USD/CHF may continue to track the positive slope in the moving average as it no longer carves a series of lower highs and lows, with a breach above 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) bringing the monthly high (0.9225) on the...
USD/JPY is back on the defensive this week with a two-day sell-off of nearly 2% once again approaching multi-month uptrend support.
The focus is on a reaction into confluent support near 154.09 IF reached with a close below 152.55 ultimately needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway here.
Initial resistance eyed at the yearly high-day close (HDC) at ...
The price of oil may attempt to test the February low ($71.41) as it falls for the fourth consecutive day.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Crude extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) towards oversold territory, and the oscillator may show the bearish momentum gathering pace should it push 30 for the first...
Yields on the US 10-Year seem to have broken the January uptrend, threatening another test of key support at 4.26/32 - a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 1998 low-close, and the 61.8% retracement of he 2000 Decline. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / close below needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway here....
AUD/JPY appears to be under pressure following the failed attempt to test the April high (104.96).
AUD/JPY Rate Outlook
AUD/JPY initiates a series of lower highs and lows as it continues to pullback from the weekly high (104.87), with the recent weakness in the exchange rate keeping the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of overbought territory.
Lack of...
Euro is poised to mark a reversal just pips ahead of key support today at 1.0782/86 - a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the April rally, and the 200-day moving average. Note that former slope resistance is also offering support here and further highlights the significance of this zone.
Shorts at risk while above this threshold heading into the...
The USD decline settled into key support last week at 104.15/36- a region defined by the December high-close (HC), the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December rally, the measured head-and-shoulders objective of the April breakdown, and the 200-day moving average. Note uptrend slope support also converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and the...
GBP/JPY pushes above the April high (200.55) to register a fresh yearly high (200.65).
GBP/JPY Outlook
The three-day rally in GBP/JPY has pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 for the second time this year, and the overbought reading in the oscillator is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in the exchange rate like the price action from...
Watch this week's close in Gold - price is poised to mark an outside-week reversal off uptrend resistance on mounting RSI divergence. As it stands, XAU/USD is poised to mark the largest weekly decline of the year (since December). Bulls may be vulnerable here near-term.
Initial weekly support at 2301 with the broader outlook still constructive while above ...
