The EUR/USD reversed sharply after failing to hold above the 1.10 handle last week, thanks to strong US data and as the ECB meeting failed to provide much support.
The EUR/USD formed a bearish-looking inverted hammer on the weekly time frame, which is a possible bearish reversal pattern, or at least a temp top stick. The bears will now want to see rates hold...
We are heading into a potentially very volatile 24-hour period, with the Fed set to kick things off today, before the BoE and ECB make their policy decisions on Thursday. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD will thus be in focus. The trend for both remains bullish heading into these central bank meetings, but let’s focus on the EUR/USD here.
All eyes on Jay Powell and FOMC
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Much of the attention was on core PCE price index today, providing traders and Fed officials one last look at inflation data before next week’s rate decision by the FOMC. Well, as it turned out, the data was bang in line with the expectations on all fronts, meaning traders had no reason to aggressively buy or sell the dollar. If anything, the dollar weakened a...
The GBP/USD has now had a few days to consolidate recent gains and although it has formed a potential double top pattern at 1.2245ish, this might turn out to be a false signal for the bears.
We haven't seen a proper dollar "buy" signal yet, with the dollar index continuing to break support after support.
While I am not uber bullish on the pound, price action has...
Gold has been moving steadily higher in an upward sloping channel since late November 2022, when price was near 1732. On January 12th, the yellow metal broke above the top trendline of the channel near 1890. The next day, XAU/USD broke above horizontal resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs of March 8th, 2022 to the triple bottom...
Ether has risen to above $1400 this week, to reach its best level since early November. The recovery has coincided with other financial markets. In recent months, investors have been selling the dollar and piling into Chinese and European equities in particular. The ongoing optimism has lifted FTSE to its highest level since Aug 2018, as European indices continue...
The EUR/NZD might not be everyone's cup of tea, but this volatile pair looks like it is about to stage a breakout. We have seen a big upsurge in European stock markets of later while the euro has also outperformed. Take a look at the EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP to get a fell for its underlying strength. The EUR/NZD could be another euro cross about to break...
Ahead of the US CPI data on Thursday, gold has turned lower after reaching a major technical zone between $1878ish to $1900ish, as you can see on the daily chart of the metal.
The lower end was the low created when gold rallied hard into resistance earlier in the year in 2022, which ultimately caused a massive breakdown. Now back to the same level, we are seeing...
EUR/USD is trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the high of 2022 to the low of 2022, near 1.0747. The area also confluences with the bottom trendline of an upward sloping channel that the pair was in until January 3rd.
If price closes above 1.0747, the next resistance isn’t until 1.0937. Above there, price can move to the highs of March 31st at...
As things stand, the trend is bearish for the dollar, but the Dollar Index (DXY) is testing some major long-term levels here as can be seen on the chart. It wouldn't surprise me if the dollar were to start a new up leg here soon, especially given the bullish seasonality factor - USD tends to rise early in the year, with Q1 typically being its the strongest...
The US dollar was hit by a double whammy of bearish news, and the response has been a swift one. The weakness in wages and soft services PMI data both point to subdued economic activity, reducing the need for the Fed to hike rates aggressively to tame inflation. However, much of this sentiment had already been priced in, so let’s see how much further the sellers...
Silver has broken below short-term support around $23.45 to $23.60 today, an area which could turn into resistance if the bears hold their advance on a closing basis. While it is far too early to say the metal has topped, today's price action would certainly appease the bears.
The precious metal had previously struggled to break above long-term resistance around...
All eyes are on the release of FOMC's December meeting minutes, due later on. Ahead of that, the US dollar is trading mixed. Commodity dollars are sharply higher despite crude oil sell-off, while the yen is weaker despite a firmer tone in the stock markets.
At the December meeting, the FOMC reduced the pace of tightening to 50 basis points but appeared more...
The US dollar surged higher on the back of stronger US data, while equities plunged. This hit commodity dollars and pound hard. Even the USD/JPY managed a rebound.
But it is the AUD/USD which has caught my attention after reversing from key resistance at 0.6750ish. It is displaying a bearish-looking inverted hammer candle on the daily. A close around current...
The selloff in USD/JPY has pulled the US Dollar Index lower with it. Could this be the year-end trade? Selling US Dollars? Notice in the bottom panel of the chart that the correlation coefficient between Gold and the US Dollar Index. The current reading is -0.92. Readings below -0.80 indicate a strong negative correlation between 2 assets. Therefore, if the...
Global stocks have bounced sharply off their overnight lows. But the lack of any significant bullish catalysts makes me wonder whether the recovery will hold. For now, the major indices are displaying hammer candles or similar bullish-looking patterns on their daily charts. Let's see if the second half of the day will encourage some profit-taking and a return to...
Global stocks sold off further after the European Central Bank warned of more rate increases at the pace of 50 basis points, adding to a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve the day before.
Among the more interesting indices to watch is the German DAX.
After faking out above the previous high at 14605, the DAX hasn't looked back, selling off aggressively over...
