Ahead of the ECB policy decision, the EUR/USD bounced back quite sharply to turn back positive on the week and rise above parity. Is this the start of a new counter-trend rally or just short-covering ahead of a key risk event? It is worth watching the EUR/USD to see how it fares by the close of play, when traders will have digested the ECB move and Powell's...
Silver couldn’t hold onto its earlier gains as recession concerns around the world continue to boost the appetite for US dollar. Investors are becoming more and more convinced that the Fed is going to raise rates by another 75 basis points this month and proceed with further aggressive hikes until inflation comes back under control.
Silver's price action would...
The world’s oldest cryptoasset has had a quiet week, with prices consolidating in an abnormally tight $1,000 range centered at the key $20,000 level for the last seven days.
In a way, the quiet price action can be viewed as a win of sorts for crypto bulls, given the fact that the typically-correlated Nasdaq 100 index has fallen nearly 3% over the last week, but...
Following the goldilocks jobs report, US stocks rallied and added to their rebound from the second of Thursday's session. However, the markets remain in a longer-term bear trend and are not out of the woods. The Fed is going to be tightening its policy aggressively in coming months, which should put a ceiling on asset prices.
The bears must now wait for the...
Gold and silver are both suffering because of similar reasons: rising interest rate expectations from both side of the Atlantic and a strong US dollar. The latter has underperformed lately due to elevated concerns over the health of the Chinese economy where the nation’s zero-COVID policy and energy issues have hit the sector. But overall, it is all about monetary...
Eurozone CPI came in hotter than expected this morning, hitting a record high of 9.1% year-over-year. Despite worries about surging energy prices (up 38% y/y, even before cold winter weather arrives) driving the continent into recession, the ECB will be forced to act aggressively to fight inflation at next week’s monetary policy meeting; indeed, economists at both...
EUR/USD made headlines for briefly dropping below parity (1.00) for the first time in nearly 20 years in mid-July, then again throughout most of last week’s trade, but the pair is starting this week’s trade on a bullish note as it peeks above that key psychological level.
Interestingly, the pair’s RSI indicator is showing a bullish divergence with rates over...
The Nasdaq 100 index rallied nearly 25% off the June lows to last week’s peak, but sellers have aggressively pushed prices down in recent days, leaving the index testing a key previous support/resistance zone around 12,900. This area put a floor under prices in March and April, and once the index broke below it, it acted as resistance in early June;...
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is rallying today, helped along by a story that OPEC+ was considering cutting production if/when Iran’s production started to hit the market, reducing fears of continued oversupply in the coming months.
From a technical perspective, the selloff in WTI has stopped exactly where experienced technicians might have expected: At...
Risk aversion is the dominant theme to start this week’s trade, and for FX traders, that means broad-based strength in the US dollar.
Mirroring the situation in the European mainland, the UK economy is facing elevated inflation and a slowing (likely soon to be contracting) economy. In the coming months, the BOE is likely to prioritize raising interest rates to...
After trailing this summer’s recovery rally in the correlated Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin is now underperforming the tech-heavy index to the downside.
After testing its 50-day EMA last week, BTC/USD is currently trading down by 8% on the day to approach its 1-month low in the $20,750 area. More importantly, the cryptocurrency is set to break below the rising channel off...
After today's disappointing Chinese and US macro data and the slump in crude oil, bond yields have slumped as investors have further priced in "peak inflation" amid recession risks.
The US 10-year yield broke out of its bear channel a couple of sessions ago, which was bad news for low-yielding assets. But it has now gone back inside that channel, meaning the...
Bitcoin and other cryptos remain supported.
BTC formed an inverted doji/shooting star candle off resistance around $24,600 on Thursday, which looked rather bearish. However, we have not seen any significant downside follow-through, suggesting Thursday's price action was driven by profit-taking than intense short-selling.
Thus, I think BTC will go on to take out...
Gold had already created a post-NFP high at the start of this week, but with inflation data coming in much softer than the previous month, this has further fuelled a rally in low- and zero-yielding assets such as gold, nasdaq and yen.
Investors are betting that the Fed will slow down its rate hikes amid signs of slowing economic activity and the potential we have...
The S&P has turned negative on the week ahead of the release of US CPI on Wednesday.
While some profit-taking on the longs accumulated over the past few weeks should not come as surprise, there are plenty of macro concerns to encourage short sellers to step in after the recent recovery. Remember that we are no longer in a bull trend.
The failure to hold above...
Despite that strong US jobs report on Friday, we are seeing renewed weakness in the dollar and bond yields. With the Fed's next meeting still 1.5 months away, traders are easing on their long dollar positions as things could still change dramatically by mid-September. As a result, gold, silver, comdolls, pound, euro, bitcoin, ether, et. all., are breaking higher....
It looks like the U/J has paved the way for another move lower following the release of mixed US data this week, and slumping oil prices.
The hourly chart of the USD/JPY shows the breakdown of former support at 133.40ish, as well as a short-term trend line.
From here, a move down to the next support at 132.40ish looks very likely, and if that breaks then there...
Like most currencies, the British pound has struggled against the US dollar so far this year, with GBP/USD falling by nearly 2000 pips from its mid-January high to its mid-July low. Over the past couple of weeks however, bulls have managed to drive the pair 500 pips off its low to peek above the 50-day MA for the first time since February.
The current bullish...
