The US dollar was hit by a double whammy of bearish news, and the response has been a swift one. The weakness in wages and soft services PMI data both point to subdued economic activity, reducing the need for the Fed to hike rates aggressively to tame inflation. However, much of this sentiment had already been priced in, so let’s see how much further the sellers...
Silver has broken below short-term support around $23.45 to $23.60 today, an area which could turn into resistance if the bears hold their advance on a closing basis. While it is far too early to say the metal has topped, today's price action would certainly appease the bears.
The precious metal had previously struggled to break above long-term resistance around...
All eyes are on the release of FOMC's December meeting minutes, due later on. Ahead of that, the US dollar is trading mixed. Commodity dollars are sharply higher despite crude oil sell-off, while the yen is weaker despite a firmer tone in the stock markets.
At the December meeting, the FOMC reduced the pace of tightening to 50 basis points but appeared more...
The US dollar surged higher on the back of stronger US data, while equities plunged. This hit commodity dollars and pound hard. Even the USD/JPY managed a rebound.
But it is the AUD/USD which has caught my attention after reversing from key resistance at 0.6750ish. It is displaying a bearish-looking inverted hammer candle on the daily. A close around current...
The selloff in USD/JPY has pulled the US Dollar Index lower with it. Could this be the year-end trade? Selling US Dollars? Notice in the bottom panel of the chart that the correlation coefficient between Gold and the US Dollar Index. The current reading is -0.92. Readings below -0.80 indicate a strong negative correlation between 2 assets. Therefore, if the...
Global stocks have bounced sharply off their overnight lows. But the lack of any significant bullish catalysts makes me wonder whether the recovery will hold. For now, the major indices are displaying hammer candles or similar bullish-looking patterns on their daily charts. Let's see if the second half of the day will encourage some profit-taking and a return to...
Global stocks sold off further after the European Central Bank warned of more rate increases at the pace of 50 basis points, adding to a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve the day before.
Among the more interesting indices to watch is the German DAX.
After faking out above the previous high at 14605, the DAX hasn't looked back, selling off aggressively over...
Gold has tested the key $1800 a few times now and so far unable to break above it. Yet, it hasn't created a bearish reversal there either. Not yet anyway.
Today's hotter-than-expected PPI print called into question the “peak inflation” narrative, although UoM's survey showed inflation expectations fell.
Gold traders will be facing one of the most important...
Given the optimism over China re-opening, oil is not doing great at all. Brent looks like it is heading to $80 a barrel from here.
The latest weakness of course has a lot to do with the OPEC+ deciding against even steeper output cuts than those agreed in October. At the weekend, the group agreed to stick to its oil output targets.
In October, the OPEC+ had...
On March 7th, EUR/JPY made a low print of 124.40. Since then, the pair has been moving higher in an ascending wedge formation. On October 21st, the pair attempted to breakout above the top trendline of the pattern, reaching an intraday high of 148.40. However, Japan’s Ministry of Finance stepped in and intervened in the fx markets by buying Yen.
That was the...
Following a weak ISM manufacturing PMI report, recession concerns have seen US stock markets drop after yesterday's Powell-inspired rally.
It is worth keeping an eye on the major indices such as the Dow Jones.
The DJIA has gone back below the August peak at 34288. A close well below this level would be a bearish outcome as it would point to a false breakout....
Worth watching bond yields here as they have started to creep higher - could spell trouble for gold, silver, Nasdaq et. al.
The 10-year has found some support from the upper end of the key support area between 3.50% to 3.65%.
Although it is not an outright bullish signal for the 10-year yield, there's the possibility that it could stage a more meaningful...
Supported by expectations the Fed is going to reduce the pace of policy tightening, the EUR/USD has risen above the 1.04 handle, after recently it recaptured 1.0340, which was the 2017 low.
For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, as traders decide whether to push rates decisively above the 200-day average.
Among the upside targets, last...
GBP/USD reached a near-term low on November 10th at 1.1334. As the US Dollar continued to move lower, GBP/USD continued to move higher. The pair reached a high of 1.2034 on November 15th and pulled back in a pennant formation on the 240-minute timeframe. As price reached the apex of the pennant, it broke out to the topside on November 22nd. The next day,...
The EUR/JPY failed to break out above its trend line. Instead, it is currently displaying a large bearish engulfing candle. Watch out below!
Speculation that we may have reached peak inflation has helped to boost the appetite for low-yielding assets today, including the yen. Growth concerns amid soft PMI data as revealed by weaker PMI numbers from around the...
Gold and silver gave up much of their earlier gains. Questions remains as to whether precious metals will be able to rise significantly from here in this macro environment.
Although the case for peak inflation has grown, the fact that interest rate increases are not yet pausing in the US and elsewhere means holding zero-yielding gold and silver represent an...
The industrial metal topped on March 7th at 5.0395. However, for the next 3 months, HG sold off aggressively and made a July 15th low at 3.1315! Fears of increased inflation, increased interest rates, and increased Covid cases in China led to a fear of lack of future demand. Copper traded between 3.2430 and 3.7830 from mid-July and November 10th, when it gapped...
