All the attention is on the upcoming release of US jobs report, which is critical for the Fed’s outlook on interest rate rates. But with so much going on with regards to the Middle East and oil prices, and given the weekend risk, the initial NFP-related market reaction may not hold into the close, especially if the data turns out to a bit weaker than expected.
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NZD/USD is breaking down, slicing through uptrend support on the daily chart as we head towards nonfarm payrolls. With momentum indicators providing bearish signals, selling rallies and breaks is preferred near-term.
If we see a push back towards the former uptrend today, consider selling with a tight stop above for protection against reversal. Potential...
USD/JPY is hitting the top of the range it’s been in since mid-August. With RSI (14) and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, and having cleared the 50DMA, it feels like this attempted breakout may succeed where others have failed.
If we see a break and hold above resistance at 147.06, consider buying with a tight stop below the level for protection. Risk...
So far Q4 has started much differently than the way most of Q3 went. While EUR/USD was strong for most of last quarter bears have made a re-appearance in the pair, defending a lower-high inside of the long-term resistance level that I looked at last week at 1.1212.
It's been a fast move so far but the big question now is whether bears can do what they failed to...
The deviation between EUR/USD and AUD/USD has been quite clear over the past month. While EUR/USD had struggled at resistance of 1.1200, AUD/USD had continued flying up to fresh yearly highs. And given stances from each respective central bank, that divergence made sense.
This also showed clearly in the cross pair of EUR/AUD which set a fresh yearly low this...
For all the headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, many markets remain respectful of levels on the charts, providing traders will some form of certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Australia ASX 200 SPI futures is among that list, kissing uptrend support in overnight trade before bouncing into the close.
But whether the rebound can extend...
Risk assets took a tumble on reports a a senior US official has revealed that Iran may soon launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. The US is helping Israel prepare its defenses, warning that such an attack would have serious consequences for Iran. This development comes after Israel escalated its military operations against Tehran-backed Hezbollah in...
Traders should be alert for a breakout in Russell 2000 futures which are coiling in yet another triangle pattern. Having entered from below and with three consecutive higher closes, it feels like if there’s going to be a breakout, it’s most likely going to be bullish. Momentum indicators are pushing higher, bolstering that view.
If we see triangle resistance...
The price of oil may attempt to retrace the decline from the last week’s high ($72.40) as it initiates a series of higher highs and lows.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Keep in mind, the price of oil bounced back the January low ($64.37) to hold within the yearly range, and a break/close above $70.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may push crude back towards $72.80...
Gold held below a key resistance pivot into the close last week at 2643/71 - a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2015 advance, the 1.618% extension of the June advance, and a host of short & long-term slope considerations. Bottom line- looking for a possible inflection off this mark into the start of the month with the immediate rally vulnerable while...
The British Pound is testing Fibonacci resistance for a fifth consecutive-day at the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.3414 - looking for a breakout of this multi-day consolidation for guidance here with the immediate rally vulnerable while below.
A topside breach exposes the 2019 high at 1.3515 and the 1.36 -handle. Initial support rests with the...
Gold was a touch lower at the time of writing. Earlier gains that were triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and risk-on moves in China last week. But the impact of those factors have faded.
Price action since Friday suggests that gold is approaching a potential short-term correction phase after its recent rally.
Overbought conditions indicated...
EUR/USD is capitalizing on the weaker USD and with German CPI data in focus.
Buyers have been grinding higher from later May, with the latest leg up seeing EUR/USD retest 1.12.
Buyers will look to rise above here to extend the uptrend to 1.1275 the 2023 high.
On the downside, support can be seen at 1.11, the round number and the rising trendline support. It would...
Nikkei 225 futures look terrible on the dailies, with a shooting star candle followed up by a big bearish candle on Friday, completing an evening star pattern. Convention suggests downside risks are building, but I’m not going to follow convention today.
Sitting just above the 50-day moving average, a decent long setup has presented itself, especially with...
Gold could be approaching a correction, with signs of overbought conditions emerging. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing above 70 on daily, weekly, and even monthly scales, a level not seen since the 2020 pandemic surge. Historically, this has indicated either a multi-day consolidation or a period of selling pressure as investors take profits.
Despite...
Getting your entries right is a big step forward on the path to successful trading. In this post, we’re going over three techniques to potentially improve your entry point and, by extension, hopefully get in trades at more favorable price levels that could ultimately increase your profit per trade.
1. Planning For Breakouts (Or Breakdowns)
Use pullbacks and...
Crude oil is one of the few commodities that hasn’t participated in the broader rally this week, weighed down by a report on Thursday that Saudi Arabia will sacrifice higher prices to protect market share.
Even before the report dropped there were signals crude was staring at downside, with a key reversal on Wednesday setting the tone. The gains crude took weeks...
Like the Aussie post looked at earlier, this isn't a terrible venue if looking for continued USD-weakness. Tomorrow's Core PCE report is a big deal as this is the first piece of inflation data that we'll see after the Fed's 50 bp cut, and at this point rates markets have high expectations for even more softening and this will be spoken to with tomorrow's inflation...
