USD/JPY rebounded off key support yesterday at 140.25-141.02 - a region defined by the December low, the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance, and the objective yearly open. Looking for a reaction off this mark with the Fed on tap later today.
Initial resistance 143.31 backed by near-term bearish invalidation at 145.62-146.42 . A breach / close above this...
USD/JPY falls ahead of the Fed rate decision where the US central bank is expected to cut rates for the first time in 4 years. But by how much? The market prices in a 64% chance of a 50 bps cut. An outsized cut could send USD lower.
USD/JPY trades below its falling trendline. It has recovered from the 2024 low of 139.60 but failed to rise above the 1000 SMA on the...
GBP/USD rises after hotter than expected service sector inflation data. While headline CPI remained at 2.2%, services & core inflation were hotter than expected, supporting the view the BoE will keep rates unchanged tomorrow. Further gains in GBP/USD could come if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps later today.
GBP/USD trades above its rising trendline; the price has...
Nikkei futures look like a market where bulls and bears are waging war, all while the price continues to coil up within a symmetrical triangle, waiting for a potential explosive break.
The sizeable wicks on the daily candles suggests the collective market hasn’t made up its mind yet, although having entered the triangle from above, the inclination is that...
USD/MXN approaches the 50-Day SMA (18.9615) as it slips to a fresh monthly low (19.0919), with a break/close below 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension) bringing the 18.5090 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 18.6330 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around the August low (18.4291) but USD/MXN may track the positive slope in...
While the world waits for the Fed to kick off their cutting cycle, there's been some very strong moves showing in Yen-pairs. GBP/JPY remains especially elevated on a longer-term basis and the Bank of England hasn't exactly been hawkish of late.
There was a 2,800 pip sell-off in July-August and the bounce from that was intense, even if it couldn't quite make it...
Gold rode a strong trend through the weekly open but buyers haven't yet been able to press into the 2600 psychological level.
Those big figures have played a large role in Gold's price action this year. The massive breakout in March-April stalled at 2400 with buyers unable to gain acceptance. But, the corresponding pullback couldn't make much ground below 2300...
DXY pushed down to support to start the week with a strong push from USD/JPY bears testing the 140.00 handle. But - that breakdown couldn't hold and with the FOMC just about 24 hours away we've seen some short-covering ahead of the big day. In my view the big driver for the USD since the July high has been USD/JPY and that carry unwind theme, which I think will...
USD/JPY is extending the bounce from support looked at yesterday. The pair is already trading through the first resistance objective at 141.69 which was the August swing-low. The next spot over head is the 143.45 level of prior support-turned-resistance from last week. And above that is the 145.00 handle.
This one seems especially vulnerable too and decisive for...
USD/JPY looms as a prime squeeze candidate should the Fed disappoint on extremely dovish market pricing, not only likely to benefit from the probable uplift in US bond yields but also recent shifts in market positioning.
USD/JPY staged a decent reversal on Monday after slicing through the Dec 28 low of 140.273, printing a hammer candle on the daily. With RSI (14)...
The price of oil recovers ahead of the January low ($64.37) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of oversold territory.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
The price of oil extends the rebound from the monthly low ($65.27) to carve a series of higher highs and lows, with a break/close above $71.70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing $74.00 (50% Fibonacci...
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just above key support into the weekly open at 100.61/76- a region defined by the December low and the 2024 low-day close (LDC). Note that the lower parallel of the pitchfork and the objective September opening-range also converge on this threshold and further highlight its technical significance- looking for a reaction off...
Cable pushed a strong bullish move after the support test around the 1.3000 handle last Wednesday, very similar to EUR/USD. But while EUR/USD pushed a bounce of as much as 1.23% from last Wednesday's low, GBP/USD was able to stretch a bit more with a move of as much as 1.63%. This is on top of the fact that GBP/USD has recently established a fresh two-year high...
A breakout of the September opening-range takes gold to fresh record highs ahead of the Fed. The rally is trading just below parallel resistance into the start of the week with daily momentum trading just below 70- keep an eye on this.
Initial support now rests at 2524 backed by 2469- losses should be limited to this pivot zone IF price is heading higher on this...
EUR/USD has built a bull flag with the pullback that started in late August. As looked at on Friday, that pullback showed in a relatively clean channel, and the resistance side of that formation has already come into play in early trade this week. Given the trend that started in June and ran through August, there's a couple levels of importance for buyers to hold...
USD/JPY has continued to drop and the bounces since early-August, when the sell-off really got underway, have grown more and more shallow.
The fundamental side of the pair is in focus this week as the Fed is expected to begin their rate cut cycle. With the FOMC lowering rates the rollover on the long side of the pair can narrow, thereby removing some of the...
Silver looks bullish, breaking through downtrend resistance last Friday with ease as traders ramped up Fed rate cuts bets. However, with over 120 basis points priced in 2024, that leaves silver vulnerable to a reversal should the Fed not deliver on those expectations. Therefore, rather than buy the break, I’d rather see what the Fed does before entering a trade. ...
I had published an idea on the weekly oversold reading in DXY ( linked here: ) in late-August and as I said then, those are rather rare, and the last time we had one of those was in January of 2018.
In that episode it took about three months of grind after the oversold reading for bulls to take over. And we haven't yet taken that low out since. But that's a...
