the European Central Bank (ECB) will be in focus today at 12:15 pm GMT and is anticipated to reduce rates amid recent CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) softening by more-than-expected in May to 1.9% at the headline year-on-year (YY) level from 2.2% in April. YY core inflation – a measure that excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices – also...
C$1.3945 was made short work of in April and retested as resistance in May, following a fourth consecutive month in the red. Technically speaking, the scope to explore deeper water is evident on the monthly scale until C$1.3534, followed by another layer of support from C$1.3242.
In view of this, as well as the lack of bullish intent evident from trendline...
There is no denying that Europe’s shared currency (EUR) is having a strong year against the US dollar (USD) so far, with the EUR/USD pair rising by almost 10%.
Monthly support in play
In one fell swoop, April’s price action made short work of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0904 and the monthly resistance at US$1.1134. This prompted the unit...
Following the EUR/USD (euro versus the US dollar) trading within striking distance of a head and shoulders top pattern’s profit objective at US$1.1049, bulls went on the offensive. Consequently, price has pencilled in an AB=CD bearish formation at US$1.1332, according to the 100% projection ratio and a 1.618% Fibonacci extension ratio of US$1.1353 (B-C...
April retail sales data is scheduled to be released at 12:30 pm GMT tomorrow and will be a closely watched report as investors seek signs of any impact derived from tariffs, as well as potential future rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to LSEG Data and Analytics, economists expect retail sales to have stagnated, following a 1.5% gain in March –...
Following the agreement between the United States (US) and China to temporarily reduce tariffs, there has been a notable unwinding of safe-haven assets and an increase in demand across risk. Recent developments show the US is preparing to lower levies from 145% to 30%, while China is set to decrease tariffs from 125% to 10%.
Safe-haven assets weighed
Along...
Monthly bullish outside candle
Versus the US dollar (USD), Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to snap a two-month decline and pencil in a bullish outside candle on the monthly chart (textbook engulfing candles focus on the candle’s real bodies rather than upper/lower wicks). Additionally, it is important to observe that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to break the...
Following a low of 4,835 on 7 April – which touched gloves with an ‘alternate’ AB=CD support (1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) at 4,983 – the S&P 500 index is on course to pencil in an ‘equal’ AB=CD resistance (100% projection ratio) at 5,746. Notably, the 5,746 level is accommodated by a 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio at 5,718, as well as a nearby 61.8%...
With the US dollar (USD) poised for lower terrain, this could underpin the euro (EUR) and call into question the reliability of resistance at US$1.1457 on the EUR/USD. If the pair concludes north of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0914 this month and above resistance-turned-possible support from US$1.1134, the pendulum may swing in favour of...
Although the US Dollar (USD) Index has connected with a monthly support area between 98.72 and 99.67, April’s lower low at 99.01 reached levels not seen since early 2022 and price crossing below the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.91 potentially questions this support zone.
Bolstering the likelihood of additional downside in the USD are the daily and...
Safe-haven assets caught a strong bid in recent trading, directing Spot Gold to all-time highs of US$3,220/troy ounce versus the US dollar (XAU/USD). The shift towards safe-haven markets was fuelled by softer demand for the USD as markets fled dollar assets, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Unsurprisingly, the Swiss franc (CHF) and...
A long-term, double-top formation has emerged from the all-time highs of 45,073 on the weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. With the pattern’s neckline breached (derived from the low of 41,844), chartists will likely target the structure’s profit objective, which stands at 38,613.
WTI shed nearly 10% last week and tested levels not seen since early 2021. As a result, the downside move punctured the lower boundary of a descending triangle formation on the weekly chart, extended from a high of US$95.01 and a low of US$64.34. Technically, this opens the door to possible bearish scenarios in the weeks to come toward a decision point zone at...
Unsurprisingly, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX Index) – one of the most popular measures of US stock market volatility – recently shook hands with 30.00, levels not seen since August 2024. As a result, I am closely monitoring the daily charts of the VIX (with standard Bollinger Bands overlaid) and the S&P 500.
As shown on the charts, the VIX closed above the...
Following the pullback from lows of N$1.0903 on 20 March in the AUD/NZD cross (Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar) – a move that also completed a longer-term double-top pattern at N$1.1180 – buyers and sellers on the daily chart are squaring off at resistance from N$1.1002. Complementing this area is a trendline that has turned from support to...
With price action on the monthly timeframe rejecting the underside of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at US$1.0927 and daily price recently completing a double-top pattern from the lower edge of said SMA (breaching the neckline taken from the low of US$1.0823), EUR/USD (euro versus the US dollar) bears will likely remain on the offensive until the...
Since BTC/USD (Bitcoin versus the US dollar) rebounded from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) earlier this month at US$78,111, speculative bullish interest has been uninspiring.
Further Downside
As far as I can see, the major crypto pairing demonstrates scope to continue exploring south until it reaches support from US$68,926 on the monthly timeframe...
Down nearly 4.0% this month, the US Dollar Index demonstrates scope to navigate deeper waters on the monthly chart towards the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.72. A similar vibe is evident on the daily chart. Following a test of support-turned-resistance at 103.94, a possible bearish scenario could unfold if price breaches the lower edge of the current...
