AUD/USD bears outperformed in January, guiding the major pair nearly 250 pips lower, or -3.5%.
Monthly Coil in Play
From the monthly timeframe, things have been consolidating between two converging lines ($0.7158 and $0.6170) since late 2022. The fact that there is not a steep pole that precedes the formation, this pattern has been identified as a...
Amid a rally in US Treasury yields and a broad-based USD bid, spot gold (XAU/USD) is getting hammered lower today!
Down -1.1%, the precious metal is now on the doorstep of shaking hands with the widely watched 2,000 level. While this psychological barrier will house buying interest, a whipsaw (or stop run) of this level could be on the table if challenged,...
As widely expected, the Bank of England (BoE) kept the Base Rate unchanged at 5.25% for a 4th straight meeting. The MPC vote was a rather rare three-way split: two members opted for a rate hike, one for a rate cut, and the remaining six officials voted for a pause. We also witnessed the accompanying Rate Statement etch out its warning that additional tightening...
Following last week’s week-ahead post on the price of ripple versus the US dollar, the H4 harmonic ‘alternate’ AB=CD bearish formation at $0.53316, depicted through a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio (plus the moderate Fibonacci cluster, backed by 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios), served well as resistance and sent price to a fresh YTD trough of...
The title of this post has been ‘on repeat’ for three weeks; that’s because the S&P 500 pencils in a fresh all-time high (ATH) each week!
January ended in unchartered territory, touching a fresh all-time high of 4,931 and adding +1.6%. This extended recovery gains from the near-test of monthly support coming in from 4,102 in October 2023. Recent posts by the FP...
It was shaping up to be yet another tiresome week if not for Friday’s monstrous beat on US non-farm payrolls, which triggered a bid in the US Dollar Index and ended the week +0.5% higher.
Daily Resistance Cleared
Resistance at 103.62 on the daily timeframe saw its fair share of upside attempts since 17 January, a level sharing chart space with a 200-day...
Markets and economists forecast that the FOMC will leave the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting. Therefore, the policy meeting, scheduled for today at 7:00 pm GMT, will focus on the accompanying Rate Statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and whether we see a pushback against March rate pricing.
133bps of Cuts Priced...
Versus the US dollar, the price of ripple (XRP/USD) finished another trading week on the ropes and ran into an area of weekly support worthy of note for the week ahead: between $0.51462 and $0.53650, which has teamed up with a trendline support taken from the low of $0.30000.
Weekly Support Echoing Feeble Vibe
While the weekly zone is defined support and...
Clean resistance zone offered at ¥147.44-¥147.39 midday London.
Sellers from this point are likely to position stops beyond ¥147.50.
This is in line with the immediate downtrend.
BTC/USD closed out the week considerably off worst levels, delivering an unambiguous weekly hammer candlestick formation (the pattern is based on Friday’s closing price). Adding credibility to this bullish reversal pattern is where it developed: weekly support coming in at $38,809, as well as garnering reinforcement from the trend: the major crypto pair has...
Despite generous economic data last week, the US Dollar Index was tiresome. The week settled marginally higher, adding +0.2%, but it barely scratched out a fresh higher high and largely remained within the previous range (check weekly chart).
Monthly Chart:
Technical observations on the monthly timeframe are largely unchanged from previous writing (and will...
Today’s economic calendar—the end to the final full week of January—concludes with a look at the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation: December’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.
PCE Estimates
Scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT, economists’ estimates suggest a slight uptick in the headline measure to 0.2% from November’s -0.1%, while year-on-year...
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce its latest policy settings today at 1:15 pm GMT and, together with the Advance estimate for Q4 GDP out of the US at 1:30 pm GMT, will be the dominant macro drivers. It is widely anticipated the central bank will hold the line and keep all three key benchmark interest rates unchanged for a third successive...
Kicking this off from the monthly timeframe, it is resolutely clear that the trend is to the downside. Another key technical observation on the monthly scale is the bearish chart pattern that was recently completed (completed meaning that a breakout lower emerged beneath the lower boundary of a descending triangle formation extended from the high of CHF1.0042...
Netflix (ticker NFLX) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings following the US market close today. The EPS estimate is down from $3.49 to $2.20. According to the company, new subscribers are anticipated to have increased by around 8.5 million, similar to the previous quarter.
Most will be already aware that the streaming video giant also recently implemented a...
Following November and December’s spirited push, totalling approximately +13.3%, 2024 is off to a solid lead, up +1.5% month to date and refreshing the all-time high (ATH) at 4,842.
Technical studies from the monthly timeframe remain clear and, for the most part, unchanged. The index has been entrenched in a dominant uptrend since breaking out in early 2013....
It has been a disappointing week for the major crypto pair BTC/USD despite the US securities regulators' bitcoin ETF approval a week ago.
Weekly Support Ahead; Sellers to Control in the Short-Term?
The majority of technical hands acknowledged the prior week’s shooting star candlestick formation (bearish signal) on the weekly timeframe that formed off...
Month to date, versus the US dollar, Europe’s single currency is lower by -1.3% and has erased all of December’s upside.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Approach Highlights Nearby Resistance
The Research Team acknowledged the following in recent analysis regarding the monthly timeframe (italics):
Overall, the currency pair has been in a downward trend since 2008,...
