There's a clear bearish trend showing on the bigger picture for EUR/USD with price currently correcting to the upside. Be on the look out for sellers to come back into the market which will show on the smaller time frames first.
Price has recently tested 0.6210 and has so far been rejected. This was daily resistance in February and March which was followed by a 360 pip drop down to the 0.5900 zone. A close above 0.6210 could lead to a retest and bullish run up to 0.6370 with longer term shorts looking viable after a break back below 0.6082.
Price is moving within a descending channel on the bigger scale and has just broken out of a correction on this daily time frame. Look for any corrections/sell setups that meet your strategy rules with a view to price reaching the sloping level of support (bottom of the channel).
Since rejecting major resistance in the 0.9200 zone, price has been on a steady decline with the last break of support being seen at the 0.9020 area. It's possible that we may see this zone retested and rejected for further downside. Be careful of the FOMC statement later which may cause market volatility.
We can see a big reversal in price off the rising trendline during the final day of trading last week. We could potentially be at the beginning of another bullish impulse.
Gold daily had a huge sell off on the last day of trading on the headline that China halted reserves buying after an 18-month stretch. Technically, we can see a Head & Shoulders pattern in play with price testing the neckline at the close of business. If the pattern follows through, we will see more downside, especially after Fridays bearish engulfing candle.
The daily chart for Gold shows clear divergence between the recent highs in price and the highs in the MACD. This indicates a potential weakening in buying pressure. Currently we see price finding daily support around the $2327 per ounce mark. With the divergence in mind, watch to see if price breaks lower and then look for sell setups that meet your strategy rules.
We can see the clear change of trend on the 2 day time frame for EUR/CHF after finding a base at the end of last year. Last week saw price pulling back towards the trendline, meaning that we could start to see buyers creeping in sometime in this new trading week. Keep an eye on the smaller time frames for clues.
The H4 chart for AUD/USD shows a potential range in play between the 0.6670 and 0.6600 price points. The penultimate candle of the final session showed a big rejection of the top of the zone. We may see price continue lower in this new week to test the lower part of the range.
The daily chart has produced a high, higher high and lower high on the daily chart. We can also see price breaking and closing below the neckline at 1.0870. This is a text book Head & Shoulders pattern so far.
Potentially, price could retest and reject the neckline for further shorts.
Price looks to be moving within a daily downtrend as shown by the subsequent lower highs and lower lows on the chart. Daily support sits at 1.6150 which was last tested and rejected several times over December 2023 and January 2024. If price continues on its trajectory, we could see support tested before the end of this new trading week.
