In the lead-up to tomorrow FOMC meeting, and driven by various dovish news reports, the interest rate market is pricing in 40bp of cuts —raising the odds considerably of a 50bp rate cut tomorrow.
The basis for this is it would be improbable for the #Fed to allow pricing to move so far towards a 50bp cut only to let markets down with a 25bp cut, risking a repeat...
USD/JPY finished lower overnight at 140.64 (-0.38%), paring losses from a fourteen-month low of 139.57.
USD/JPY’s rebound into the close and bullish RSI divergence indicates that USD/JPY is looking for a short-term low. However, whether it can rebound to pressure crowded short USD/JPY positioning will depend on Friday's #BoJ meeting outcome.
At the meeting, the...
The ASX200 is set to open this morning at fresh record highs, seven weeks after striking its previous record high of 8148 back in early August.
From here a sustained close above 8150 would open the way for the rally to extend towards weekly trend channel resistance at 8230/50ish. Conversely, a failure to sustain the break above 8150 would keep the ASX200 range...
Gold skyrocketed 🚀o/n to a fresh record closing high of $2558 (1.87%), kicking into gear after the ECB cut rates by 25bp.
In our Gold post last week we noted that while it held above $2470 and continued to coil below $2530 it could extend gains towards $2550.
Now that it's above $2550, providing it holds above a layer of s/t support at $2530/20 (sustained...
AUDUSD finished higher overnight at .6674 (0.33%), supported by a rebound in commodity prices and risk sentiment. And after running into bids placed ahead of the 200-day moving average at .6616.
The rejection from the .6800/25c resistance area has likely run its course for now. Provided the AUD/USD holds above the 200-day ma (on a sustained basis), there is...
USD/JPY finished flat overnight at 142.36 (-0.07%), bouncing back from an intraday low of 140.71 in response to US inflation data, which bolstered US yields.
The rebound has left signs of downside capitulation at the 140.71 low, supported by bullish divergence on the RSI indicator, opening the way for a recovery back towards 145.50ish.
A relief rally for US equity markets o/n as investors continued to juggle two key uncertainties. The first is the magnitude of the Feds anticipated rate cut at next week's meeting. The second is the uncertainty surrounding the US election, with recent polls showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a tight race.
In the next 40 hrs, we may gain insight into...
Bitcoin trades higher at $57,093 (+4.06%), boosted by the latest polls showing pro-crypto Presidential candidate Donald Trump neck and neck in the race to the White House. Technical buying also supported the rebound after Bitcoin tested and held our crucial medium-term $52,000/$50,000 support level, highlighted in our post last week.
While Bitcoin holds above...
Gold finished higher overnight at $2516 (+0.85%), extending its gains from key support at $2470, as the USD eased.
Provided gold remains above support at $2470ish (sustained basis), it can extend gains towards the top of the trend channel at $2550 in the sessions ahead.
Aware that a sustained break of support at $2470 possibly on a hotter than expected NFP...
Following the Nasdaq 100’s close below 19,400 on Thursday last week, we moved to a tactical short bias in the Nasdaq 100.
The basis for the short recommendation was based on the idea that the correction in the Nasdaq 100 from the 20,690 high to the August 17453 low is missing a leg lower towards the 18,000/17,700 support area coming from the 200-day moving...
Bitcoin trades at $57,997 (-1.64%), on track for an eighth consecutive daily close below $60k - a worrying sign against a backdrop of widening risk aversion.
Combined with its rejection of the 200-day ma in late August, the balance of risks for BTC has tilted towards a break initial support at $57,000/$56,000 before a test of medium-term support $52,000/$50,000 area.
The AUDUSD finished lower last week at .6765 (-0.47%), retreating from an eight-month high of .6824 as the USD received support from month-end rebalancing flows and stronger US economic data.
This week, all eyes turn to Wednesday's AU June quarter (Q2) GDP. The market is looking for a rise of 0.3%QoQ, which would see the annual rate ease to 1.0% YoY,...
The ASX200 finished 26 pts (-0.33%) ⬇️ yesterday at 8045 after earnings reports at home, and the US missed the mark.
However, in a repeat of Wednesday's price action, heavier losses were trimmed after month-end buying emerged around lunchtime.
Watch today for more month-end buying, which will see the ASX200 likely finish the month in the green—a remarkable...
US equity markets closed lower overnight, perhaps anticipating the disappointment that has followed Nvidia's earnings report.
With a sustained break below the 19,400 (highlighted on Monday in the article link below) level all but guaranteed after Nvidia's earnings report and ahead of the seasonally challenging month of September, we take this opportunity to move...
Following Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the USD index, the DXY, is trading at 100.55, on track for its largest monthly fall in 21 months.
The narrative is that the Fed's sole focus on the labour market and zero tolerance for any further increases in the U/R has reactivated the Fed Put, which presents a significant headwind for the USD.
Zooming out...
In the lead-up to Nvidia's earnings, the market has put reports of delays to Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell chip behind it. Blackwell's revenue contribution is not expected to ramp up until later this year.
However, the market is positioned long the stock and the chip maker is again expected to beat expectations this quarter.
Nvidia Q2 2024 expectations
• ...
The AUDUSD closed at .6796 (+1.90%) last week, its highest weekly close this year, after Fed Chair Powell, speaking at Jackson Hole, validated expectations of Fed rate cuts before year-end.
This week, all eyes turn to Wednesday's AU Monthly CPI Indicator for July. The headline CPI indicator is expected to fall to 3.3% YoY, reflecting a sharp fall in energy...
Bitcoin trades at $64,385, up over 10% for the week.
Its gains were fuelled by expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, rising Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and after independent US presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy through his support behind the pro-crypto Donald Trump.
The push above the resistance from the 200-day ma, currently at $63,327, opens...
