Westy and Blake are back - a day early...again! They talking macro (USD, Treasury Auctions, Volatility Shot & Markets), charts (Gold, Silver, USDJPY & EURAUD) and trade ideas (AUDCAD & DXY). Tune in for another episode of The Trade Off
Volume and liquidity kick back into markets after the US Thanksgiving celebrations and we consider if the trend of a weaker USD, low cross-asset volatility, rising gold and Bitcoin can continue. Direction for this scenario will focus on the direction of travel in equity markets, and notably, whether the NAS100, US500 and even the JPN225 can kick higher.
The...
It's that time of year when forecasters get to work and calculate the necessary assumptions to plug into their models to offer year-ahead forecasts.
In theory, strategists loath making such calls, but in the investment arena expected returns are important for asset allocation, so economics teams work closely together with FX, bond, and equity teams to make calls...
The technology sector has continued to outperform of late, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq reclaiming the 16,000 handle, and rallying to its best levels since last January. Consequently, many are beginning to ponder whether these strong gains can continue into the end of the year, and if the outperformance will persist through 2024.
The message from recent price...
With a new set of weekly candles to assess, we see the USD looking weak, with the greenback having fallen on the week against all G10 and EM currencies, bar the COP - the risk seems skewed for further downside in the buck.
EURUSD closed above the former rising trend (drawn from the March lows) and targets 1.0960 (the 61.8 fibo of the July-Oct sell-off), with...
Westy and Blake are back. Markets are alive and they're aiming to help you make sense of the commotion. We have macro (Sentiment, Rates, 2024 Outlooks), charts (EURUSD, EURGBP, SOL & AMZN) and trade ideas (CHINAH & USDMXN). See you there!
After a more subdued week on the event risk front, the week ahead refocuses traders’ attention on global growth dynamics, with China, Europe, and the US in the spotlight. The US CPI print is the marquee data point, but it will take a big upside surprise (vs consensus expectations) to bring the December or January FOMC meeting to a ‘live’ status, and interest rates...
The ever-increasing confidence that the SEC are imminently due to give the 12 ETF issuers the green light to launch and to market a cash Bitcoin ETF has clearly given tailwinds to a market that responds to confidence like few others.
Momentum is the play now, where a body in motion stays in motion is the philosophy adopted by traders. The idea of buying what’s...
Westy and Blake are back. Markets are alive and they're aiming to help you make sense of the commotion. We have macro (NAS100, Markets, Bonds & AUD), charts (Oil, EURAUD, BTCUSD & JPY225) and trade ideas (L/S NAS/R2K & EURJPY). See you there!
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We see the NAS100 up for 8 straight days, with price breaking the July downtrend and testing the 12 Oct swing high – a record closing high for Microsoft clearly helping. Naturally, we don’t see the NAS100 up for 8 days in a row too frequently, and since 2010 we’ve seen this run of form 32 times. It can be quite compelling to short a market having had such a...
We had seen in interest rate futures pricing that the market had already gone some way to pricing a 25bp hike, and one suspects the leveraged community (hedge funds) had amassed a decent AUD long position. We can also see broad USD strength on the day, but the move we’ve seen from 0.6489 to 0.6404 has caught a few by surprise. The guidance in the statement was a...
We knew it was an event heavy week and that extreme fear was priced into risky assets, but the ensuing moves across markets were prolific.
The question for this week is whether to chase, to buy weakness within the ST trend or to counter.
The fact we saw US 10-year Treasuries drop 26bp on the week to 4.57%, with 10-year real rates -23bp to 2.17%, catching a...
Having been on hold since June the RBA should hike by 25bp to get the cash rate to 4.35%.
We see a 60% chance of a hike priced into interest rate futures, with the market having a high conviction that if they don’t hike next week then they will almost certainly in December. 21 of 24 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) are calling for the hike.
The doves do have...
Westy and Blake are back at it! Risk has been flying but for how long? They're talking macro (current session, FOMC, FX Plays & Oil), charts (AUDJOY, USDNOK, NAS100 & GBPUSD) and trade ideas (MXNJPY & EURCHF). See you there!
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Timing – 31 Oct (no set time – likely between 1 pm to 3 pm AEDT)
The tide is turning in Japan and while BoJ policy change is glacial - especially when we consider the intense pace at which other G10 central banks have acted – we’re now hearing that Japanese pension funds are looking are re-weighting of domestic JGBs, with yields on long-end bonds more attractive...
The November Bank of England decision is likely to be one of the most predictable since the Old Lady’s first hike in December 2021, with the MPC set to vote in favour of a pause at a second straight meeting, while leaving the door open to the possibility of further tightening, depending on the persistence of price pressures, though the bigger focus remains on the...
