After a dramatic weekend in geopolitical news flow, we revert to areas more closely aligned with our expertise; the ebbs and flow of economic growth dynamic, inflation, central bank liquidity and month-/quarter-end flows.
To set a platform for the week ahead – The USD rallied on 4 of the past 5 days (gaining 0.6%), while it was a rolling sea of red in our core...
The JPY-funded carry trade rolls on with real vigour and its presenting some very interest tactical and technical opportunities.
As many will be aware, we’ve seen the trade-weighted JPY break to new lows, as USDJPY breaks above 143.0, with bullish breakouts playing out all over the JPY crosses. EURJPY and CHFJPY have both been well traded, with the latter...
Westy is on his way back from the UK, so Quasar is stepping up once more for The Trade Off! Macro themes (BoE, China/US Relations, Equity Markets and Emerging Markets), juicy charts (Eth, EURJPY, DAX & Nasdaq) and trade ideas (USDJPY & Bitcoin).
The pain trade in US equity markets remains to the upside, and with the US500 only 9% from the all-time highs, if we are to get test 4800 it will be because the bears fully capitulate.
That is certainly a possibility, especially if the market strongly believes the Fed pause again in the July FOMC meeting. Subsequently, if the S&P500 breaks 4450/4500, it will be...
A traders’ week ahead playbook: the BoE and Powell take centre stage
The UK gets close attention this week, where we get CPI (21/6 at 4 pm AEST) and the BoE meeting (22/6 at 21:00 AEST). The BoE will almost certainly hike by 25bp, but the move in the GBP comes from the tone of the statement vs the 34bp of hikes priced for the August meeting. GBPUSD is testing...
Westy is away in the UK, so Quasar is stepping up again. Blake and Q are back with The Trade Off! Macro themes (FOMC, Inflation, ECB & BoJ and Market Breadth), juicy charts (DXY, S&P500, EURGBP & US10Y) and trade ideas (USDCAD & DAX40). Don't miss it!
We’ve just seen Tesla push higher for a 13th straight day and signs are it could rally for a 14th.
This is obviously an incredible run of form, especially as there simply haven’t been any positive earnings revisions – however, earning aside, investors have seen a 70% return since May (110% YTD), and the stock is hot, but is it too hot?
Fundamentally, we’ve...
Westy and Blake are back with The Trade Off! Macro themes (Rates, CPI/PPI, Volatility & FOMC), juicy charts (Gold, Bitcoin, AUDCHF & Copper) and trade ideas (L/S R2K/Nas100 & BGPJPY). Don't miss this episode of The Trade Off!
The RBA has now ‘surprised’ the market with 2 back-to-back rate hikes, which were both priced at a 30% probability or below. Essentially, the RBA has injected a level of policy uncertainty greater than any other G10 central bank.
We also see its hawkish forward guidance maintained with “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. So, the...
In this video we look at the impending $800b T-bill issuance from the US Treasury to rebuild its cash levels at the TGA – will this lead to higher volatility in financial markets as reserves are taken out of the system?
Will concerns on bank credit kick back up, or will this prove to be a non-event?
We look at the indicators you need can use in TradingView to...
Looking at the calendar for the week ahead and it’s a quiet affair by way of known event risks to catalyse. We have tier 1 idiosyncratic event risks, with the RBA and BoC meetings holding the potential for a 25bp hike respectively. However, I’d expect the central focus to remain on the USD, US rates pricing, US regional banks and whether we see a further positive...
Last week and last month closed below 66c which is a key level and we've started to see the pullback to 66c, to go and fill the remaining institutional orders.
This will not only be retesting that resistance which was once strong support, but also the broken bear flag and the broken head and shoulders neckline which all forms a massive matrix of confluence for a...
While Congress still needs to pass the debt limit agreement, the debate in the market has shifted to the need for the US Treasury Department (UST) to rapidly rebuild its depleted cash levels.
We have no understanding of the timetable, but already the debate is whether the significant level of Treasury bill issuance will result in a major headwind for global...
Westy and Blake are back with The Trade Off! Macro themes (Sentiment, debt ceiling, China & NFP), juicy charts (Crude, GBPNZD, HK50 &USDCNH) and trade ideas (EURMXN & NASDAQ). Don't miss this episode of The Trade Off!
With month-end flows in mind, and as the market reacts to the weekend debt ceiling agreement and the prospects for ease of passage through the House and Senate this week, the USD remains at the centre of the universe.
The prospect of the Fed hiking in June will get further close attention, where we contrast how US data stacks up relative to the data flow in other...
The momentum is to the USDs back and there are multiple core tailwinds supporting the dollars investment case. I would argue that the USD has become somewhat of a magical currency, where we’re seeing safe-haven flows, as well as a cyclical element, where US data has recently been better than feared.
We can see US economic exceptionalism playing out, while US...
Westy and Blake are back with The Trade Off! Macro themes (Fed policy, the debt ceiling, liquidity cliffs & the USD), juicy charts (DXY, AUDUSD, Gold & Silver) and trade ideas (Long/Short US/EU, USDJPY). Don't miss this episode of The Trade Off!
After an eventful week for the NAS100, US500, JPN225, GER40 and the USD, traders should be open-minded for further twists in the market script this week.
At one stage last week better-than-feared US data and some modestly hawkish Fed chatter saw US interest rate futures price a 40% chance of a hike at the June FOMC meeting - the USD naturally benefited from this...
