China industrial production (16 May 12:00 AEST) – the market expects a solid improvement in the industrial production read at 10.8%. We also get retail sales (+22%), and fixed asset investment (5.7%) – a big year-on-year improvement shouldn’t surprise given it is measured against a stagnant economy that was in lockdown. However, with China’s data throwing up a...
The ZAR (South African rand) has come up on the radar as sellers have dominated and a true buyers strike ensues. We’re seeing longer-dated South African govt bonds sell off aggressively, with yields on 25yr government debt rising above 12.5% and the highest levels since 2020.
The energy shortage continues to take a toll on economics and talk of increasing...
The fact we are seeing US 2yr Treasury yields confined to a 4.28% to 3.60% range is a major factor behind the DXY trading in such a tight consolidation. On the daily timeframe we see the Bollinger Bands (BB) compress to the tightest levels since Jan 22, with the RSI (9) sitting mid-range – subsequently mean reversion is the correct strategy here and we see clients...
Westy and Blake are back with a massive episode of The Trade Off! Macro themes (equities, PPI, USD & BoE), juicy charts (NASDAQ, Bitcoin, KRE ETF, EURJPY) and trade ideas (EURAUD, USDZAR) - get with it and tune into The Trade Off!
The US debt ceiling should be firmly on the radar and getting an understanding of the risks it poses could help us better recognise the trades which could serve us well.
It is incredibly painful for all market participants, but it can radically alter our trading environment and reverse the low volatility regime, we have found ourselves in recently.
Like most of...
Marquee event risks to navigate:
Debt ceiling headlines – President Biden meets with Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try and inject some urgency in forging an agreement to raise the debt limit before 1 June. We’re already seeing clear stress in US T-bills maturing in mid-June, so the market is certainly taking the threat of moving past the June X-date...
We've recently seen USDSEK consolidate in a descending triangle after a sharp drop from 10.55 highs.
Sellers have been gaining traction as seen from the lower highs each time buyers have bought the 10.23 support.
Market has now broken below 10.23 support and if we get a rounded retest we could see sellers fully dominate and the descending triangle pattern plays...
There are weeks when the landmines by which traders must navigate are seen in such abundance, where the implications for market pricing are so meaningful, that we manage risk well or we simply get schooled - this week seems to be one of these.
As we look down the calendar we see marquee catalysts everywhere – earnings, central bank meetings and tier-one economic...
Traders are looking ahead at the RBA meeting (2 May 14:30 AEST) and reviewing where the balance of risk sits, as well as the propensity for volatility. As always, the need to manage the risks when holding exposures over news is of clear importance.
From a volatility perspective, AUDUSD 1-week (options) implied volatility sits at 11.2% - the 20th percentile of the...
So much to talk about! Westy and Blake bring you the latest news and trends in macro, spicy setups and trade ideas to help you tackle markets! They're talking US earnings, the debt ceiling, various FX plays and commodities.
After a sharp gap down post earnings, Tesla has kicked firmly back onto the trader radar - this typically happens when a client favourite moves 9% and is starting to trend lower.
The investment case is absolutely fascinating, and the execution of the new strategy suggests Tesla will be the kingpin of volatility at least for the next few weeks. There is also a...
Westy is back! We have a jam-packed show for your this week on the Trade Off as Westy and Blake reunite to give you all the latest news and trends to help you tackle markets!
Having only recently traded through the most volatile (vol) environments in interest rates and bond markets since the GFC, we are now seeing far more subdued conditions in vol. Many have expressed disbelief at how the VIX index (S&P500 30-day implied volatility) is below 17% when the US is eyeing a possible recession this year, the credit crunch is yet to really...
A BIG chart for the coming week - the higher time frames need work to really get the USD bulls excited and price is still contained below the 5-day EMA. However, we've seen divergence (one of best impending reversal signals) playing out and a closing break of the bear channel puts the upside targets at horizontal resistance at 105.40 and possibly the 200-day...
Westy is still on the road, so Quasar is stepping up once more to take his spot! Blake and him are talking all things to watch in markets in the coming days. What's the USD up to? What's inflation got to do with it and what's happening in Gold and BTC?
In recent weeks we saw AUDNZD trade in a range between 1.08 and 1.067 after a big move from 1.108 highs. This consolidation formed a potential bearish rectangle pattern which is a continuation pattern formed after a big move to the downside.
We then saw the market finally breakdown to breach the range support, then came back to retest it as resistance and closed...
Westy is on the road, enjoying a well-earned break, so Quasar from The Trade Off Español is stepping up! Blake and him are talking all things to watch in markets in the coming days. Strap in for another episode of The Trade Off.
