Westy and Blakecover all market factors you need to have on your radar! Macro (Sentiment, PCE & NFP, China & looking ahead), juicy charts (Gold, AUDJPY, GBPUSD & AUDUSD) and actionable trade ideas (EURCAD & USDCHF). See you there!
The current flow suggests this is the risk. On the daily chart, we see price closing above the 61.8 fibo of the July/Aug sell-off, as well as the 24 Aug highs. We see price holding above the 3-day EMA, with this ultra-ST moving average pulling above the 8-day EMA. Momentum accounts would be increasing net long positions on this move. On a micro level, Nvidia is...
Last week we saw GBPUSD print a bearish outside week reversal, although the buyers staged a solid defence of the 100-week MA (now 1.2534). Those positioned short will want to see price close below this moving average to increase the prospect of further downside.
Given the weekly reversal, any potential downside break of last week’s low of 1.2548 is also worth...
We move past Jackson Hole with a slight hawkish lean from chair Jay Powell, and this adds increased empathises on US core PCE inflation and US nonfarm payrolls as the big macro event risks. It remains unlikely we get a hike from the Fed in September, but November is shaping up to be a ‘live’ event, where both data points have the potential to throw interest rate...
Westy and Blake take you through all the market factors you need to have on your radar (equities, US, Crystal ball & Jackson Hole), look at some juicy charts (NAS100, Corn, Gold/Silver & EURUSD) and actionable trade ideas (USDJPY & EURAUD). See you there!
Gold has been shunned by investors, but many are now questioning if the yellow metal is nearing an inflection point, for a potential turn, or should we position for further downside.
With US growth likely at a peak and as good as it gets, gold longs partly flushed out, positioning paired back and sentiment as bearish as we’ve seen for years, could we be seeing a...
The big market themes last week were trading increased China risk and a resilient US economy with higher US ‘real’ yields (TradingView - TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) – the result was broad USD strength and global equity weakness. GBP longs also saw tailwinds from the UK data flow, with GBPNOK the best performing major currency pair on the week – Services PMI could...
Westy and Blake are back and take you through all the market factors you need to have on your radar (volatility, yields, USD & inflation), look at some juicy charts USDJPY, Gold, GBPAUD & AUDCAD) and actionable trade ideas (L/S R2K & USDMXN).
When trading the AUD you’re essentially expressing a view on China. USDCNH has been on a one-way tear of late and has weighed on AUDUSD, reflecting poor China economics, concerns of a credit event, but also the comparative returns seen in US Treasuries (over China bonds). We’ve seen underperformance in Chinese equity and industrial metals. The AUDUSD daily...
US 10YR ‘real’ rates are essentially US 10yr Treasuries adjusted for 10yr inflation expectations – TradingView users can set this up using the equation: TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE.
We can see this as the true cost of capital and in effect, the higher yields rise the more this supports the USD and negatively impacts US equity valuations. The rate of change (ROC) is...
We head into monthly options expiry (OPEX) on Friday and that may influence flows and price action in the US500, but for now, the equity bears are starting to get some traction. We saw the bulls try and take price above Monday’s high (4493) but they failed and the index closed not just below the range lows, but through the 50-day MA. Outright shorts remain...
The USD reigned supreme in G10 FX last week, and unless we see a far better feel towards China this week then I see the probability skewed for further USD gains.
USDCNH remains central to the positive USD bias, and despite the best efforts of the PBoC to push back on the yuan weakness the daily chart is a thing of beauty – perhaps the better way to think about...
Westy and Blake are back and take you through all the market factors you need to have on your radar (Equities, CPI &PPI, Energy & Trading), look at some juicy charts (EURAUD, USDCHF, XAUAUD & AUDJPY) and actionable trade ideas (Nat Gas & Silver).
Energy markets are front of mind – we see crude into new cycle highs and riding the 5-day EMA – clients are progressively increasing short exposures, although we’re not at historically high skews.
Nat Gas (NG) – the wild west of energy markets – has broken the $1.91 to $2.82 range it has held all year, and the Bollinger Band volatility squeeze is firmly on. EU...
As is typically the way in FX trading the breakout traders see a set-up on the higher timeframes and either the market uses these levels to fade the move, or the breakout fails to gain traction and ultimately reverses.
Those seasoned traders who use breakouts for trade entry – often momentum and trend-followers – know the percentage of breakouts that lead to...
The BoJ would be comfortable with the reaction towards the recent tweak to its YCC program – there has been limited gyrations in Japanese equity markets and bank equity is about to break to new highs. Predictably, we’ve seen the 10yr JGBs grind higher to 63bp, but the market is firmly of the view that the back-up in JGB yields will not promote a rush from pension...
After a solid tightening of financial conditions over the week we watch to see if the negative tone spills over into the new trading week. On the week, the NAS100 fell close to 3%, with Apple closing below its 50-day MA; a factor that had been acting as a solid trend filter since late January. Instead of buying dips, could we be looking at selling rallies now in...
Boom! 💥Westy and Blake take you through all the market events and macro factors you need to have on your radar Volatility, Bonds, USD & NFP), look at some juicy charts (USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD & AMZN) and actionable trade ideas (US500 & CADJPY).
