Last week was some ride and I feel like I’ve aged 10 years, but what have we learnt?
The Fed and the ECB are almost done tightening and market pricing shows this front and centre. In the case of the US, core PCE and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed us that price pressures and wages are abating. However, the US Q2 GDP print grew at an above-trend pace (at...
What a week! Westy and Blake take you through all the market events and macro factors you need to have on your radar (risk, ECB & BOJ, FOMC & China), look at some juicy charts (EURAUD, EURJPY, Crude & MSFT) and actionable trade ideas (Nat Gas and EURUSD).
It’s the week that every risk manager has on the radar. It’s time to get in front of the screen as this week has it all.
We navigate corporate earnings from several global titans. We get several marquee economic data releases, central bank meetings from three of the world’s price makers, and we’re likely to hear of stimulus to be announced from China’s Politburo...
Westy and Blake are back for The Trade Off! Macro themes (USD, US Earnings, Big Week Ahead, FOMC), juicy charts (DXY, AAPL, AUD & Cotton) and trade ideas (AUS200 & GBPJPY). That's the Trade Off!
For the fourth consecutive day, we see the USD index holding below 100, although with consolidation now playing out, we see indecision to make a move abundantly clear in the price action – this will rectify itself, and traders should respect developments, but which way will it play out?
We see clients aggressively long USDs across the board, countering the USD...
It was a huge week for USD traders and the USD remains the central focus of clients and wider market participants this week. US data is lighter on the ground and with the Fed in its blackout period, we are in cruise control into next week’s FOMC meeting, where a 25bp hike is an almost done deal.
Will this hike prove to be the last in the cycle?
The market is...
Westy and Blake are back for The Trade Off! Macro themes (Inflation, DXY, US Q2 Earnings & Markets in general), juicy charts (DXY, USDNOK, Fed Funds & Silver) and trade ideas (Long BTC & AUDJPY). See you there!
With the US nonfarm payrolls behind us, we look to the US CPI report as the next big risk for markets. Ahead of this, we’ve seen USD sellers start to dominate with EURUSD eyeing a re-test of the 22 June high of 1.1012 and USDJPY 300 pips off its recent high. We also see GBPUSD looking poised to test the 1.2850 highs, so one for the breakout traders, especially...
Westy and Blake are back, so we're back to regular scheduling - The Trade Off Classic! Macro themes (Market Sentiment, NFP, Yields & USD), juicy charts (Nasdaq, EURCAD, AUDUSD & Bitcoin) and trade ideas (EURMXN & Russel2000).
Risky assets continue to climb the wall of worry, but the reality is we’ve seen conditions ripe for equity appreciation. Granted, the global central bank balance sheet is falling but the rate of change is contained, and US bank reserves are not falling as fast as feared.
Liquidity is currently not the bearish catalyst for equity drawdown that many thought it...
After a dramatic weekend in geopolitical news flow, we revert to areas more closely aligned with our expertise; the ebbs and flow of economic growth dynamic, inflation, central bank liquidity and month-/quarter-end flows.
To set a platform for the week ahead – The USD rallied on 4 of the past 5 days (gaining 0.6%), while it was a rolling sea of red in our core...
The JPY-funded carry trade rolls on with real vigour and its presenting some very interest tactical and technical opportunities.
As many will be aware, we’ve seen the trade-weighted JPY break to new lows, as USDJPY breaks above 143.0, with bullish breakouts playing out all over the JPY crosses. EURJPY and CHFJPY have both been well traded, with the latter...
Westy is on his way back from the UK, so Quasar is stepping up once more for The Trade Off! Macro themes (BoE, China/US Relations, Equity Markets and Emerging Markets), juicy charts (Eth, EURJPY, DAX & Nasdaq) and trade ideas (USDJPY & Bitcoin).
The pain trade in US equity markets remains to the upside, and with the US500 only 9% from the all-time highs, if we are to get test 4800 it will be because the bears fully capitulate.
That is certainly a possibility, especially if the market strongly believes the Fed pause again in the July FOMC meeting. Subsequently, if the S&P500 breaks 4450/4500, it will be...
A traders’ week ahead playbook: the BoE and Powell take centre stage
The UK gets close attention this week, where we get CPI (21/6 at 4 pm AEST) and the BoE meeting (22/6 at 21:00 AEST). The BoE will almost certainly hike by 25bp, but the move in the GBP comes from the tone of the statement vs the 34bp of hikes priced for the August meeting. GBPUSD is testing...
Westy is away in the UK, so Quasar is stepping up again. Blake and Q are back with The Trade Off! Macro themes (FOMC, Inflation, ECB & BoJ and Market Breadth), juicy charts (DXY, S&P500, EURGBP & US10Y) and trade ideas (USDCAD & DAX40). Don't miss it!
We’ve just seen Tesla push higher for a 13th straight day and signs are it could rally for a 14th.
This is obviously an incredible run of form, especially as there simply haven’t been any positive earnings revisions – however, earning aside, investors have seen a 70% return since May (110% YTD), and the stock is hot, but is it too hot?
Fundamentally, we’ve...
Westy and Blake are back with The Trade Off! Macro themes (Rates, CPI/PPI, Volatility & FOMC), juicy charts (Gold, Bitcoin, AUDCHF & Copper) and trade ideas (L/S R2K/Nas100 & BGPJPY). Don't miss this episode of The Trade Off!
