It’s the last trading session in April and the USD is higher for the fourth consecutive month with a gain of 5.1% - unless we see a USD collapse in the session ahead this would be the best monthly gain since 1967!
Considering as the seasonals are so negative for the USD in April (over the past 20 years GBPUSD has closed higher 85% of the time, AUDUSD 70%), the...
Blake and Chris are back with The Trade Off! They talk current markets and look at a wide range of asset classes, both fundamental and technical analyses and what you need to know about trading this week.
We have seen USDJPY recently pullback and consolidate after the extended run towards 130.00 on the H4 timeframe.
The pair found support and a base at 127.50 which has led to a breakout of the falling wedge. We are also seeing a clean breakout on the RSI.
IF the breakout is sustained and the pair clears 128.20, then we could see USDJPY make a run towards the 130.00...
Last week we saw bulls take control from the bottom of the wedge and close well above 1.37.
We have seen a 50% retracement of last week’s candle so far which is also sitting around the 1.3650 minor support and wedge retest area. We could see a wedge breakout and retest in play from here. If price action (H4) continues to hold above 1.3650, then this would...
GBPNZD faced big selling pressure on the higher time frames into the 1.9400 resistance, reversing back with the sellers taking control. We also saw a partial downside break of the rising channel established last week. We could possibly see a retracement into intraday resistance as well as a retest of the channel, where a rejection there could see a continuation...
While gold has been out of favour of late, ‘resilience’ is still a key vibe in the gold market and despite the rise of the USD and US bond yields, one could easily argue gold should be closer to $1800 in this environment. When markets don’t fall on such reliable historical inputs, we must ask why and is it telling us a message about a potential turn in the...
Chris is back in town, and so is the Trade Off! Blake and Chris talk current markets and look at a wide range of asset classes, both fundamental and technical analyses and what you need to know about trading this week.
The Trade Off is back with a twist! Blake is hosting while Chris is on the family ranch in the NT! That didn't stop them from talking about current markets, though. As always, they look at a wide range of asset classes and talk fundamentals and technicals
For now, the USD reigns supreme – the trade-weighted USD sits at the highest levels since May 2020, as does the USDX, although this USD basket is heavily skewed towards the EUR. However, the bullish move in the USD sits firmly on momentum trader’s radar, while Pepperstone clients are skewed short suggesting they are seeing mean reversion as the base case.
The...
Blake and Chris talk current markets and look at a wide range of asset classes, both fundamental and technical analyses and what you need to know about trading this week. The Fed, ECB, USD, EURUSD, US500, AUDNZD, Crypto & Crude
I now look at Aussie swaps pricing and see a 44% chance of a hike in May and a 20% of 50bp by June. I don’t think this is wholly exuberant although looking further out the rates curve and 8 hikes for this year seems rich and 13 by end-2023 is going to cause genuine problems if it comes to fruition – one has to question who is trading these instruments that far...
With the RBA meeting in play on Tuesday, here are a few variables traders can look at to assess the skew of risk – there are obviously many other moving parts, but could the RBA deliver a surprise?
Here are a few core considerations.
1) Rates pricing – 0% chance of a hike (either 10bp or 25bp) for this meeting, but we see 170bp (6.8 hikes) priced for end-2022,...
