We argued in last week's ‘Traders’ week ahead playbook’ that with an unwavering focus on inflation Fed officials may look to push back on easier financial conditions. So, while the technicals pointed to further upside, from a tactical perceptive, we could see headwinds to risky assets. What transpired was that various Fed members, even well-known doves such as...
A big session ahead as we start to position for NFP and next weeks US CPI - good news seems to be good news for stocks, and bad news is good news too, as we see a weaker USD and further inverted yield curves' - an almost goldilocks scenario!
Technically, the index is making all the right moves, and we see the momentum indicators favoring a test of the downtrend...
We roll into August where after a scorching run in risk assets, the NAS100 closed July +12.6%, the best gain since April 2020 (rallied 15.2%). In Europe, the FRA40 was the best performing EU equity index, +8.9% for July, while in APAC/Asia the AUS200 rallied 5.7% and trending beautifully into FY earnings.
Ethereum gaining a massive 67% in July has shown us once...
After the bullish breakout of the multi-month wedge pattern, as well as the upside break of the range highs, we’re seeing better two-way flow and consolidation in the US500 – On the daily, we’re yet to see a bearish MA crossover (3-EMA vs 8-EMA) and the 5-day ROC is still positive, which keeps me holding a modest bullish bias, but we’re back testing the former...
We saw Cable plummet to 1.2000, which is a big monthly support area as seen on the monthly chart. Each time price has come into this area, buyers have stepped in aggressively. Price fell in a falling wedge as seen more clearly on the H4 timeframe. Falling wedges are usually reversal patterns after a sustained move to the downside in this case.
Price did not take...
Chris and Blake are back for another episode of The Trade Off! All eyes on Europe for a number of reasons. We're chatting gold, Bitcoin, Crude, FX, market sentiment and much more.
The focus of the market is firmly on EU assets as we head into the ECB meeting, and the Nord Stream 1 pipeline flow call from the Russians – not to mention Mario Draghi’s likely formal resignation. If you’ve got EUR exposure, be aware this is a news-driven market, and with EURUSD overnight implied vols at 52-week highs it could get a little wild out there.
I...
Talk of an unfolding energy crisis in Europe is well known, but we now come to a more defining and almost binary point in the proceedings – one EUR, commodity and EU equity traders should be aware of as a major event risk.
On 21 July, the Russians will need to make the call to resume the flow of natural gas (NG) through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline – the pipeline,...
It's time to reveal our special guest for this week's episode: Pierce Crosby, the General Manager here at TradingView! Chris and Blake talk to him about how retail trading is changing and how tech can assist traders in the future. Don't miss it!
It's all-USD flow – we’ve seen breakouts/downs in the USDX, AUDUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are a whisker away from parity. The wrecking ball that is the USD is on a war path, talk of the USD strength will be deafening in US Q2 earnings (JPM report Thursday) and some are even making contrasts with the moves seen in the USD in 1980-1985 where it rallied...
EURGBP has found some strong sellers recently, but is this a move to be faded on false optimism with Boris Johnson's resignation? Watch to find out more.
Chris and Blake are back for another episode of The Trade Off! They're talking gold, copper, Crude, FX and more while recession fears take hold.
We hope you enjoy the episode and as always, let us know your thoughts, trades and ideas in the comments!
Europe now gets the full attention – we’ve seen Germany’s trade surplus completely eroded, turning negative and into the first deficit since 1991 – clearly impacted by the reduction of Russian gas imports. Germany has been heavily reliant on Russian gas imports and the flow-on effect is we could be looking at gas rationing through the European winter and a...
In recent weeks we saw the JPY reach lows we have not seen in many years. We saw EURJPY attempt to break 144.20 three times and got rejected on all attempts hence forming a potential triple top.
Triple tops are usually big bearish reversal patterns after a long-sustained move to the upside. We saw the market close as a spinning top on the daily chart which could...
China has been performing well of late as capital flows towards the geography with the most accommodative central bank and increased liquidity. After a solid rally from the mid-May lows were seeing the HK50 print a series of lower lows and highs, although the wicks are getting longer suggesting there is still solid buying pressure into weakness. We see the price...
I think we’re seeing a turning point in the economic cycle and markets are moving to reposition for this – one where we’ve been myopically focused on inflation, to the next phase, a pure global growth focus, with inflation subsequently falling back to 4-5% range. We’re all scrambling to price recession risk and how protracted it will be and whether the result will...
