For now, the USD reigns supreme – the trade-weighted USD sits at the highest levels since May 2020, as does the USDX, although this USD basket is heavily skewed towards the EUR. However, the bullish move in the USD sits firmly on momentum trader’s radar, while Pepperstone clients are skewed short suggesting they are seeing mean reversion as the base case.
The...
Blake and Chris talk current markets and look at a wide range of asset classes, both fundamental and technical analyses and what you need to know about trading this week. The Fed, ECB, USD, EURUSD, US500, AUDNZD, Crypto & Crude
I now look at Aussie swaps pricing and see a 44% chance of a hike in May and a 20% of 50bp by June. I don’t think this is wholly exuberant although looking further out the rates curve and 8 hikes for this year seems rich and 13 by end-2023 is going to cause genuine problems if it comes to fruition – one has to question who is trading these instruments that far...
With the RBA meeting in play on Tuesday, here are a few variables traders can look at to assess the skew of risk – there are obviously many other moving parts, but could the RBA deliver a surprise?
Here are a few core considerations.
1) Rates pricing – 0% chance of a hike (either 10bp or 25bp) for this meeting, but we see 170bp (6.8 hikes) priced for end-2022,...
In this episode, Chris and Blake are joined by no other than Chi, aka Tracy Shuchart, Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Hedge Fund Telemetry, an expert on all things oil/energy, emerging markets and more. Make sure you tune in for this one!
There's a nice shape to the crypto moves of late, and Ethereum is one we’re seeing better flow with 82% of open positions held long. Traditionally retail derivative traders will have a skew towards countering a trend, especially one that’s been in play for 15 bars and has only really seen one down day in the time.
The set-up is clean – we broke the downtrend on...
Chris and Blake are back at it! Tune in for a smorgasboard of market banter, trade ideas, charts we have our eyes on and everything that's hot (or not!)
Scroll out on the USDJPY monthly and we can see price pushing a trend break drawn from the 1978 low and that intersects along three lower highs (2015, 1998 and 2015) – we now see USDJPY has broken through the 30-year downtrend and will need a close above 116.70 to print a monthly close through this well-defined trend resistance.
This seems...
