Fed Chair Jay Powell stole the limelight in his testimony to the Senate and despite all we’ve heard pricing for the July FOMC meeting hasn’t shifted – the markets expect a further 75bp of hikes. What we have seen is solid buying in the US treasury market (2yr USTs were -14bp), while commodity markets evolve to show greater signs of recessionary fears, with copper...
I see EURUSD as screening cheap on several metrics. Certainly, if I look at relative settings in the German and US bond and rates market, one could make an argument that ‘fair value' for EURUSD is above 1.1000. Germany’s biggest trade union pushing for 7-8% wage increases pushing up German bond yields, which has increased the EUR valuation a touch.
Still, it’s...
On the monthly chart, we can go back to 2016 and see that each time price has come into this area buyers have reacted aggressively, which has typically resulted in a strong rally in the following months.
Taking a closer look at the weekly chart, we saw last week's candle closed as a big bullish engulfing candle, confirming that buyers were once again strong in...
USDJPY and the JPY crosses capture the minds of traders – while there is so much going on in central bank land, the BoJ in its meeting today decided to sit on their hands and do absolutely nothing - whilst in some ways this is refreshing, there have been several hedge funds that have been betting that the BoJ will forced to lift its policy of capping the Japanese...
Need to know – Thursday 04:00 AEST / Wednesday 13:00 BST with Jay Powell’s press conference at 04:30 AEST.
Broad Expectations – Of 94 economists polled by Bloomberg 8 have a 75bp (or 0.75%) hike as their call, and 86 are calling for a 50bp hike. The market places a 97% chance of a 75bp hike.
Managing the risk
It’s the meeting everyone has on their radar –...
Blake and Chris are back for Episode 25 and unpack the effects inflation is having on markets, central bank policies and really, almost everything! We hope you enjoy the episode and as always, let us know your thoughts, trades and ideas in the comments.
We can focus on the bullish moves in crypto and crude, but we’ve seen further love for the EUR, with German and Spanish CPI hotter than forecast.
We look ahead to the session ahead for EU CPI estimates (7pm AEST), but the market is now LIKELY positioned for an upside surprise of the 7.8% consensus. We’ve seen EU tradeable interest rate market respond to the...
Tesla has come up on the radar and with the drawdown moving to 45% in the past 34 trading sessions traders are asking if we can see this trade sub $600 soon. Obviously, sentiment is shot to pieces and it's a tough environment for any listed entity, with few wanting to take on risk especially in high beta growth equities, regardless of the news flow from the...
After a bloodbath in US indices on Wednesday, we’ve seen some modest calming of conditions, with the focus on the US500 and whether we could break 3853 – the level which takes the US500 index 20% from its 4 Jan high and into a textbook “bear market”. Consider the average drawdown from its 52-week high in the US500 is 25%, so we can see the index move masks some of...
Westy and Blake are doing another from home episode on markets that are looking increasingly bleak. What can traders do? Join us for another session today on The Trade Off!
Rectangle patterns usually act as continuation patterns – as we see on the 4H timeframe, on 12 May we saw EURUSD break out of the ranging rectangle pattern and fell to the big monthly 1.0350 support level (and 2017 low of 1.0341) before finding demand there. With price currently pushing for a re-test for the breakout zone, could a rejection of 1.05 to set the pair...
Blake and Chris are back! Markets are turning bearish, and crypto and equities are in trouble. We talk current markets and look at a wide range of asset classes, both fundamental and technical analyses and what you need to know about trading this week.
The tides in FX are turning and after a period where the JPY was smashed on a central bank divergence thematic, some are now seeing ‘value’ and buying JPY, others covering JPY shorts.
With implied vol high across asset classes and traders question the prospects of stagflation and recessionary risk, relative interest rate settings, and carry, are having less of...
Blake and Chris are back! The Fed has hiked rates and markets are alive. We talk current markets and look at a wide range of asset classes, both fundamental and technical analyses and what you need to know about trading this week.
Falling wedges are typically continuation patterns, following a pullback consolidation period with the primary trend moving higher.
As we see on the daily - there's been a sizeable move higher in EURAUD after breaking out of the highs of the multi week range at 1.4680, where it subsequently rallied into 1.5050 without any retracements.
We see that price has since...
