In a world where FX, gold and equity index volatility is subdued, the crypto scene is getting great attention.
Not because we’re seeing volatility per se – that is not statistically the case - where Bitcoin's daily close-to-close percentage changes are seldom greater than 4%. But because of the absolute momentum and trending price action. This is not just true of...
There seems little reason to be bearish on the greenback right now, particularly as markets continue to hawkisly reprice the policy outlook, and with the Fed’s March ‘dot plot’ again likely to point to just 75bp of cuts this year, around 15bp more than markets currently price, which should continue to see Treasuries sell-off, naturally led by the front-end of the...
Although the next move in rates for all G10 central banks, besides the BoJ, is almost certain to be a cut, likely marking the beginning of an easing cycle, there are set to be some notable divergences in the timing of such a cut, and the extent of policy normalisation that will subsequently be delivered. I use “normalisation”, incidentally, rather than...
A live-ish RBNZ meeting is on deck in the very early hours (UK time) of Wednesday morning.
While a handful of local banks, and 2 of the 21 economists in the Bloomberg survey, expect a 25bp hike, the majority see the OCR remaining unchanged at 5.5%. NZD OIS sees around a 3-in-10 chance of a hike at the February meeting, while pricing around 15bp of further...
As we prepare to go into battle in the new trading week, we look down at the calendar and see the highlights being US core PCE and EU inflation, RBNZ meeting, China PMIs, and numerous Fed speakers - we regroup, and consider the propensity for outsized movement, into and around each data release, as we do with our assessment of the trading environment through which...
The Nvidia effect has ripped through global equity markets and given fresh wind to markets that were looking ominously poised for a 3-5% drawdown. New highs have been seen in EU Stoxx, GER40, JPN225, and the US large-cap equity bourses; the US30, US500 and NAS100.
What levels do the bulls target now?
Well either, you’re looking at fibo...
The Trade Off is back! As always, Westy & Blake are talking macro themes (NVIDIA, Market, Fed policy & Commercial Real Estate), juicy setups (NAS100, Crude, EURUSD & AAPL) and trade ideas (NZDJPY & GBPNZD)
On the week we learnt that the UK and Japan are in a technical recession, although this meant little to markets and perhaps the bigger issue in Japan was the steady stream of pushback from key Japanese officials on recent JPY strength.
US retail sales fell 0.80% in Jan, a sinister turn when both US CPI and PPI were far hotter than expected, putting us on notice...
Whether trading equity, equity indices or even FX, Nvidia’s Q424 earnings (due after-market on 21 Feb) should be firmly on the risk radar. Markets could come alive with movement and traders may need to dynamically react.
How the Nvidia share price reacts immediately after its earnings results and CEO Jensen Huang’s guidance could have far-reaching implications -...
London is cold, wet, and grey at present – rather typical of your average British winter. I hope, then, that you’ll forgive me for looking ahead to the brighter summer months, particularly as financial markets are beginning to do the same.
Even after a hotter-than-expected January US CPI report, money markets continue to price a ‘summer of rate cuts’. Though...
As markets continue to digest the surprisingly hot January US CPI report, the question at the forefront of participants’ minds, at least in the FX space, is whether this can be the spark that ignites the next leg higher in the USD’s rally, as a plethora of factors continue to point to further gains lying ahead.
For context, as is at this point well-documented,...
The eagerly-anticipated January US CPI report delivered a rather nasty surprise for policymakers, and riskier assets, with data printing hotter-than-expected across the board, sparking a knee-jerk hawkish repricing, as markets pushed back expectations of the first Fed cut into June.
Headline CPI rose 3.1% YoY in January, down from the 3.4% pace seen at the tail...
As a quieter week, lacking in major data or news catalysts, draws to a close, market participants look forward to a busier calendar of risk events over coming days, with focus falling primarily on the all-important January US CPI figures, in addition to a packed slate of UK economic releases, and a plethora of central bank speakers stepping up to the microphone.
...
It’s been said may times now that the UK equity market is ‘cheap’ – in fact, getting a pound for every time that description is used in a research note may well result in better performance than the market itself has recently been able to achieve. Being ‘cheap’, however, is not reason enough to assume that the London market’s fortunes may soon turnaround, as this...
The equity story of last year was undoubtedly the stellar performance of the ‘magnificent seven’ – a handful of megacap tech stocks which reigned supreme over the vast majority of others, and drove the bulk of the broader market’s strong returns. As 2024 gets underway, however, signs are starting to emerge that this year’s dynamic may look rather different, both...
