Trade set up
Tactically buyers of NZDUSD can position to enter a buy trade either after a closing break of resistance 0.6883 (16 November high), or after a retracement and retest of the top of the bullish flag pattern around 0.6790. A break out of the flag pattern has given us the confidence to trade this from the long side. We are targeting 0.7100 in weeks,...
Trade set up - We are cautiously optimistic when it comes to USDCAD and looking to trade the pair as a proxy of US crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS). We enter the trade long at the current price of 1.3295, with small position sizing and tight stops set at 1.3200, for a break of the bullish channel. However, if we see a break of 1.3182 (22 November low) our...
Trade set up
After a 13.7% fall from January 2018 highs, the price has made a bottoming formation, and we are looking to add to our previous long position. Our bullish bias needs to be confirmed by a weekly close above the resistance of 0.7304 (as highlighted on the chart) where we are looking to enter a long trade. The target is 0.7450 representing the 38.2%...
Trade Set up - In theory, tactically shorting the ‘Aussie’ around 0.7100, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000 level would make sense for technical trades, given the entry would be aligned to a strong underlying trend. That said, the big picture and set-up on the daily makes us cautious to take that trade, in fact, we would look to initiate a long entry if...
Trade set up: AUDUSD enjoyed a rally of 133-pips on the session, which to put into context was the biggest one-day move since March 2017, and was in effect a 3.1 standard deviation move. So, the move in price was punchy and was statistically significant. These moves relative to recent behaviour are rare.
Why we like it: This abrupt move broke through a...
If you like volatility GBP is the place to look, and we can see one-month GBPUSD implied volatility (vol) at 14.0%, relative to say AUDUSD and EURUSD vol at 9.34% and 7.57% respectively.
To put this into perspective, the implied move in GBPUSD over the coming month sits at 413-points from spot, and this expiry encompasses the expected Commons vote on 10 December....
Trade Parameters - After climbing to a three-month high on Wednesday, the rally in USDCAD fizzled on the back of broad USD weakness and various key Fed members acknowledging the shift in US and global economic outlook. We are looking to short USDCAD at the current level of 1.3147 with an initial profit target at 1.3078 –this being the 32.8% Fib. level of the last...
Trade Set Up - We have the USD index on ‘high watch’ as this contributes to our holistic stance on trading the USD, notably using the weekly chart, which gives good structure and oversight. Currently, our view is cautiously long, but a break through channel support on a weekly basis would see us adopt a natural view.
A close below 96.00 to 95.60 would further...
Trade set up: Our bias leans towards a short in the SPX, where we are looking for a break below the recent low of 2685 to enter the position. Upon this development, we would set a stop loss at 2725 and our take profit set at 2603. This profit target is subject to change and dependent on the price action, as a break of 2603 would hold huge bearish implications....
Trade set up: We have seen a ‘shooting star’ candle printed on Friday’s daily chart, depicting a potential short-term bearish move in the pair. However, buying the AUDUSD after a retracement into 0.7165 is still our preferred strategy. Given the importance of a three standard deviation move on Friday, our bullish trade is still in play ahead of US Midterm...
Trade set up This chart that simple has to be on the radar, as where price goes from here has huge implications for markets more broadly, even outside of G10 FX. Any currency pair breaking to new cycle lows is telling a clear message, so the importance of the 1.1300 level (15 August lows), which has really acted as key support since November 2016 , cannot be...
Trade Set up – Following on from our previous analysis, we feel a break above the YTD high of 97.20 would signal a bullish confirmation and this comes at a time when so many other G10 currencies just hold so few attractions. Our entry is set once price breaks the highs, although the preference, as always, is to avoid the initial break and buy the re-test.
Our...
Trade set up - We look to trade a closing break above the 2018 highs (114.55). In our view, the prospect of an initial stop run is high should we see the highs taken out, hence our bias to wait for a close through the level to confirm an extension of the bullish move, where we would target a new range of 115.72 and 116.16.
We would keep position size low and put...
Trade Set up – Given the underlying trend, and at this very juncture, we feel it is hard to be short the USD. That said, with traders likely to defend the YTD high at 96.98, we feel waiting for a daily close through this resistance level makes sense as it would be sending a fairly powerful signal that the bullish trend is set to continue.
On this development we...
Trade set up - Those brave early on may look to enter with a break below 1.0855, smart money focusing on confirmation not speculation with a close below 1.0850 on the daily. Price target of 1.0697 to a range of 1.0518 with stops above daily close or those with longer term outlook may seek weekly high of 1.0950.
Why we like this trade -When AUDNZD trends, it...
Trade set up – Our preference is to sell rallies in EURJPY, placing a limit order at 128.30. With implied volatility spiking, predominantly in global equities, the JPY has strengthened, and we believe it will continue to do so, as traders flock to the guru of all safe haven currencies. Should the trade be filled, we would target 126.75, placing stops set at...
T rade Perimeters:
Given the underlying trend developing we hold a short-term bearish view on crude. US Crude oil has extended its decline from the early October high’s, and clearly has not helped by a monster 9.88m build in the weekly API inventory report. All eyes now fall on the more official DoE inventory report at 01:30AEDT, and we look for an extension of...
Trade set up - We have gold on ‘high watch’ and really waiting for a price to give us a higher probability set-up.
There is a confluence of resistance levels seen on anytime frame above the 4-hour. We are most interested in the 2017 double top neckline, 38.2% fibo of 2018 sell-off and recent daily high between 1238/40. Let price push the trade, so, a closing...
