• Month and quarter-end flows to impact price action
• The US Presidential elections kick up a gear
• Managing risk around the French 1st round vote
• US Core PCE is the marquee data point of the week
• Australia's monthly CPI a potential kicker for the AUD
• Central bank meetings due this week
• Long MXN back in vogue
For the week ahead there is a fair...
The oil market has the wind to its back as we head into the Northern Hemisphere Summer, with WTI crude having rallied 13% since the 4 June lows. The rally from $72 has seen price retrace a decent portion of the falls seen between April and June - which resulted in the market running one of the most bearish positions we’ve seen in years. Clearly, the demand side of...
The big picture on gold is that price is in wait-and-see mode, and assessing what comes next in US economic trends, Fed policy and EM central bank gold purchases. The clearly defined range of $2430 to $2285 reflects this patient stance, although, within the $145 range, there are moves being made that traders are capitalizing on. Still, I expect we’ll see these...
• Key event risks for the week ahead.
• Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week.
• Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight.
• US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported.
• Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire.
The key event risks for traders this week
We...
Due to report shortly after market close on 22 May (typically 06:20 AEST / 21:20 UK).
“The most important stock in the world” - That was the label given to Nvidia (NVDA) throughout February as we geared up for its highly anticipated Q424 earnings results. Where, at the time, the sheer number of articles written on the stock was incredible – when you are a...
Everyone is talking about the moves in the FTSE100, but the ASX200 is having a moment - we see solid rate of change, the index is still no where near overbought, and we see 4 days of rising range expansion. Momentum is clearly to the upside, which suggests dips should well supported and shallow - hard to be short on timeframes 4hr+ and favour this higher but a...
While we await earnings from Nvidia (on 22 May) that will be influential on future market direction, we move into the tail-end of US quarterly earnings, but also past a dovish Fed meeting, a strong US ECI report and weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and 2 hefty bouts of MoF/BoJ intervention.
Yet, despite these landmines, a gentle calm descends over...
We move on from a week where strong momentum markets (AI names, NAS100, JPN225, Mexican peso) were sold down hard, with traders better buyers of the VIX, US30, gold, CHF, USD, and defensive equities (utilities).
Notably, the NAS100 recorded its worst week since November 2022, driven in part by market players part-liquidating an incredibly extended position in...
The dollar remains on the front foot, with the buck benefitting from haven flows amid rising geopolitical risk, as well as the continued outperformance of the US economy; both being factors which point to further upside remaining on the cards.
The greenback has continued to gain ground of late, with the USD rallying to fresh YTD highs against a basket of peers -...
Release time – Thursday on the market close (6 am AEST / 9 pm UK time)
Netflix is one of the preeminent trading stocks - where we often see big movement, a high propensity to trend and sizeable intraday high-low daily ranges that can appeal to the day traders.
With Q124 earnings due on Thursday and the possibility of another sizeable price catalyst, Netflix is...
The markets have come alive with the sound of derisking, deleveraging, hedging and broad managing of risk exposures. Friday was about managing risk going into the weekend, but today was different and the move could have legs - where for many playing defence has been the order of the day, while we have also seen traders getting aggressive, with shorting activity in...
US CPI, once again, surprised to the upside of expectations in March, sparking a hawkish cross-asset reaction as the balance of risks tilts towards later, and fewer, Fed cuts than markets had expected, as price pressures remain stubbornly high.
Headline CPI rose by 3.5% YoY in March, a significant uptick from the 3.2% YoY pace seen a month prior, and above...
Join Chris Weston as he goes over the trading week ahead and covers what all traders need to be aware of this week:
- Review – the platform
- The landmines ahead
- Charting the markets
The clock ticks down to the Bitcoin halving, which is expected between 19-21 April , with anticipation building that the event could be the next known catalyst to propel the Bitcoin price to new highs.
The question for Bitcoin CFD traders is two-fold:
1. Will the ensuing price action (post-halving) be different from the three prior halving cycles?
2. Will...
What promised to be a monster week of event risk for financial markets certainly lived up to its billing with headlines galore throughout the last five trading days, as equities and the greenback both kicked higher. Nevertheless, despite the noisy nature of the week, the fundamental narrative has changed little, with the path of least resistance for risk assets...
We have a jam packed show this week! Settle in for all your market updates and expert commentary from the Trade Off veterans, Westy and Blake. They're talking FOMC, BoJ/BoE (and how to play the JPY/Nikkei), Gold, Crude, S&P and much more.
After eight years of negative rates, and seventeen years since the last rate hike, the Bank of Japan has finally delivered what was an eagerly-anticipated exit from over a decade of ultra-easy monetary policy; though, frankly, the first steps towards policy normalisation – despite being incredibly significant – came with little fanfare, or subsequent market...
Put USDCHF on the radar - while there are many different ways this could play out this week, here are 2 clear scenario's that are front of mind.
Upside - the fed's 2024 dot moves higher in tomorrows FOMC meeting to show 2 cuts (from 3). We could also see the SNB cut rates - this is a non-consensus call with 4/24 economists calling for a 25bp cut (to 1.5%) and...
