Summary: The FOMC meeting tomorrow is arguably the last major macro event risk for the year. The meeting carries with it the risk of a market temper tantrum if investors fail to get what they want, namely, even more accommodation from a Fed that has been providing everything expected and more since 2019. The US dollar risks are distinctly two-way over this...
Summary: Strong risk sentiment continues and a fresh surge in industrial metals has helped AUDUSD to new highs. But our focus should be squarely on sterling today and in coming days as Brexit crunch time has arrived and disaster insurance buying has picked up on the latest uncertainty. Elsewhere, we look at the last remaining hurdles for USD bears heading into...
Summary: Last week saw markets trying to close on a positive note despite weak US jobs data, perhaps as US fiscal stimulus hopes weighed. But this week is off to a rocky, with geopolitical concerns a sour note in the Asian session, while this morning is seeing fresh dark clouds over the status of Brexit talks.
Today’s FX Trading focus:
Markets grinding gears...
Summary: A US dollar breakdown has unfolded over the last couple of sessions, a notable development as major chart levels in a number of USD pairs have given way, but the move seems to require constant fuel from risk sentiment. Elsewhere, some of the usual correlations are misbehaving slightly and sterling is in its own world on fresh Brexit uncertainty.
...
Summary: The price action yesterday smacked more than a bit of end-of-month rebalancing after an incredible month for global equity markets, but it could also be that USD traders are a bit nervous ahead of Fed Chair Powell testimony today and tomorrow, as much of the USD bear case is built on the anticipation in the nearest term that the Fed is ready to move...
Summary: The US dollar is perched near the final support levels in a number of USD pairs ahead of Fed Chair testimony later this week and a busy economic calendar through the Friday payrolls and employment data. But global animal spirits are likely the more important drive in determining whether the US bear trend is set to deepen here.
Today’s FX Trading...
Summary: The US dollar seems to want to go lower, but does not seem in any hurry to get there, with key near-term uncertainties perhaps holding back directional trades. Nonetheless, key support levels are looming in a growing number of USD pairs, and the backdrop remains supportive for greenback sellers unless something comes along to spook robust global risk...
Summary: The US dollar is trading back lower, particularly against pro-cyclical currencies, on the news that Trump gave the order to allow the formal transition to proceed, and after sources indicate Biden will nominate former Fed Chair Janet Yellen today as his Secretary of Treasury. This move adds to the longer term bearish outlook for the US dollar.
Today’s...
Summary: Late yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced he was pulling the plug on a number of emergency Fed facilities. The market met the news with a collective shrug, but it could prove pivotal down the road. Meanwhile, the long end of the US yield curve is generally failing to support the reflationary narrative as FX generally fails to confirm...
Summary: The market sentiment has soured since New York City last night warned that all public schools will be closed from today. We also have the specter of an EU budget impasse to consider. In FX, the riskier currencies have headed lower versus the US dollar, with the euro under modest pressure as well, though the market seems asleep at the wheel on possible EU...
Summary: The market is positioning hopefully for a rapid roll-out of an effective vaccine, figuring that this will trigger a global reflationary boom, and figuring that a weakening US dollar will be a key contributor as a gridlocked US political system leaves only a very dovish Fed as the key actor in providing support for the recovery.
Today’s FX Trading...
Summary: The Covid-19 pandemic is driving endless short-term headaches that are likely to get only worse in the near term, especially in the US. This will provoke a considerable new policy response that will mostly likely be felt most strongly when the galloping efforts of scientists are rapidly putting the Covid-19 crisis in the mirror sometime next year....
Summary: The news of a possibly effective Covid-19 vaccine jolted currencies in a sometimes confusing way, but beyond near term volatility, the rising promise of an effective Covid-19 vaccine might bring forward the longer term weakening of the US dollar.
Today’s FX Trading focus:
Are we on the cusp of an effective vaccine and what does that mean for the USD?...
Summary: Since election day, nearly all assets are enjoying a strong surge, from government- and high yield bonds to stocks and precious metals, while the US dollar is the flipside of this development, weakening sharply. This despite at least two years of political gridlock likely preventing US fiscal stimulus from flowing. Is the market assuming that a...
Summary: The US mainstream media and polling industry has fatally eroded its credibility in this election cycle after the apparent 8-10% lead Biden enjoyed in their polls was a complete mirage and Trump has made this election another nail-biter on par with 2016, even amid a higher overall turnout. The final key takeaways for markets still hang in the balance, but...
Summary: The market seems to be putting on the reflationary trade today ahead of the uncertainties of the US Election as the USD and JPY wilt, while the AUD rushes higher after brushing off the well flagged easing moves from the RBA overnight. Any strong turn-out among Democrats could support an extension of this development, while a contested election scenario...
Summary: The wider market turbulence boosted the USD and especially the JPY as USDJPY eyes the big 104.00 level this morning and many other JPY crosses have broken down. Is this a positioning clear-out of a nervous market unable to sustain a position ahead of the big US election unknowns? Hard to know, but it may also be hard for traders to sustain directional...
Summary: The mounting Covid-19 toll and perhaps concerns of a the rising uncertainty on whether the Democrats can achieve a full Blue Wave outcome have risk sentiment on edge. US long yields have backed down aggressively and this has helped the JPY rise to the top of the pack, with big levels swinging into view in EURJPY and AUDJPY in particular. We are six days...
