Introduction: As the financial markets, both crypto and equities, catch their breath after April's striking correction, should we stay on the sidelines as May gets underway? The well-known expression “Sell in May and Go Away” encourages caution, but we don't think it should be followed to the letter this year on the bitcoin price.
1) May is far from being an...
Introduction: In a market analysis we brought you in mid-April, we explained that the price of US crude oil on the commodities market had broken a pivotal technical level, the price of $65 per barrel of Texas crude oil (WTI). As the benchmark for the price of black gold in the United States, this further fall in the price of oil is a very good thing for US...
Introduction: Since the start of 2025, the US dollar has been the only major currency to post a significant decline on the forex market. In fact, it is the only so-called major currency to have fallen on Forex this year. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump's trade war has weakened the greenback's image as a safe haven in the face of the risk of global economic...
Introduction: As the US Federal Reserve (FED) approaches a new monetary policy decision, the central question is: Will Jerome Powell bow to political pressure and initiate a rate cut on May 7? To answer this question, it is essential to look back at the institutional framework of the FED and the historical precedents that shed light on the current stakes. Created...
Introduction: The bitcoin price has rebounded strongly since the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade diplomacy sequence between the USA and its main trading partners, confirmed US disinflation and a strong rebound in global M2 liquidity. On this subject of the positive correlation between the bitcoin price and global liquidity, we invite you to...
1) Lessons from the monthly technical close for the medium/long term
It's Wednesday April 30, the end of the stock market month with another monthly technical close this evening. April has been a highly volatile month, with a bearish shock at the start of the month on the back of the trade war, followed by a bullish recovery when the time for trade diplomacy...
The price of gold has risen by over 20% since the beginning of the year on the commodities market, and the price of bitcoin has returned to equilibrium following a strong rebound in its price since the beginning of April. These two markets follow certain identical correlations, in particular an inverse correlation with the underlying trend of the US dollar on the...
While equity markets have rebounded from their low point in early April, this week, straddling the end of April and the beginning of May, sees the release of top-tier fundamental data.
The trade war is the new dominant fundamental factor. But the market is most interested in the impact on US inflation and the US labor market.
The US PCE inflation report on...
The international equity market suffered a bearish shock between the beginning of February and the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade war. The trade war known as “reciprocal tariffs” initiated by the Trump Administration caused the MSCI World stock index to fall by over 20%.
Now, since the States have entered into a sequence of trade diplomacy,...
Positive correlation between global money supply (M2) and risky assets on the stock market
The equity and crypto-currency markets represent the category of so-called risky assets on the stock market, i.e. financial assets with a high expectation of gains associated with a proportionally high risk of loss.
Correlation studies show that risky assets on the stock...
In the TradingView columns dated April 14 and April 22, we offered two analyses of the bitcoin price with a bullish anticipation. Since then, the market has moved in an upward direction, and our technical and fundamental views seem to have been confirmed.
I therefore invite you to take the time to reread our two previous analyses of the bitcoin price, which are...
$1.15, a technical target that was expected
Since the beginning of the year, the euro dollar has established itself as the leader of the foreign exchange market (Forex). Up by more than 10%, it has outperformed all other major Forex pairs, and this upward movement has been built up in stages from a technical analysis point of view. The major chart target of...
Despite a new peak in global liquidity measured by the M2 monetary aggregate, the Bitcoin price has yet to trigger a real rally. There are several reasons for this lag.
First of all, from a technical analysis point of view, the underlying trend remains bullish above US$70,000
This is the dominant technical factor for the bitcoin price, and the current bullish...
The price of US crude oil broke a major technical support in April
The price of oil gave a technical red alert at the beginning of April after breaking a major long-term support, all against a complicated fundamental backdrop: the so-called reciprocal tariff trade war, geopolitical tensions and internal divisions within OPEC+.
The immediate consequence: a sharp...
New all-time record for the GOLD
Gold has broken through $3300 per ounce, with a market capitalization now of $22,000 billion, i.e. above China's GDP ($18,000 billion) and close to that of the USA ($27,700 billion). It is now the best-performing major asset since the start of the year among all asset classes, with an increase of over 20%. This massive uptrend...
Fall of the US dollar: institutional investors were already selling in February
The US dollar (DXY) is officially the weakest currency on the floating foreign exchange market (Forex) since the beginning of the year. Down over 8% against all the world's major currencies, this vertical downtrend had been anticipated by technical analysis as early as January. This...
A global stock market crash under pressure from the trade war
Since its all-time high last February, the S&P 500 has lost 20%, dragging all global equity markets into a general sell-off. This downward movement concerns not only the United States, but also the MSCI World index, confirming that a global aversion to risk has taken place. And unlike other periods of...
