Introduction: While the US equity market has rallied vertically since the beginning of April on the back of trade diplomacy, the S&P 500 is now not far from its all-time high and is once again expensive in terms of market valuation. From a diversification point of view, the Chinese equity market may appear to offer some advantages at present, both technically and...
Introduction: The bitcoin price has rebounded by over 40% since the beginning of April, following a successful pull-back from its previous all-time high. This successful chartist pull-back (see the first chart below, which shows Japanese candlesticks in weekly BTC/USD data) is part of bitcoin's bullish cycle linked to the last Halving, in April 2024. Remember...
Introduction: After a marked uptrend which saw gold reach $3500 at the end of April, with an annual rise of almost 30% since the beginning of the year and $1500 up since the bullish breakout of February 2024 (bullish breakout of the former all-time high of $2075 at the time), the message from technical analysis is as follows: now is not the time to initiate an...
Introduction: should we finally go back to buying bonds? While the equity market has rebounded vertically since mid-April and the start of a period of trade diplomacy between the USA and its main trading partners, bond prices have remained at a low level.
Although both realized and implied volatility have fallen sharply in recent weeks (see our bearish analysis...
Introduction: The bitcoin price is a highly cyclical market structured around the halving event that takes place every 4 years. BTC's last halving took place in April 2024, and it is around this event that our current cycle is structured, which should end at the end of 2025 if and only if the cycle repetition still applies (Bitcoin's famous 4-year cycle).
To find...
Introduction: The equity market has been on a bullish upswing since mid-April (we invite you to reread our bearish analysis of the VIX at the end of April), against a backdrop of trade diplomacy, particularly between China and the USA. Now that the S&P 500 index has returned to equilibrium since the start of the year (i.e., its annual performance is no longer...
Introduction: In our previous TradingView analyses, we defended the bullish recovery of the crypto market since the beginning of April, particularly for the bitcoin price. The latter seems to be positively correlated with the global liquidity trend (you can reread all our latest crypto analyses in our analysis history directly from the main page of our...
Introduction: The euro dollar is the best-performing major Forex pair this year (2025), up over 8%. But since the beginning of May, major resistance at $1.15 and an overbought technical environment have halted the rise, while trade negotiations between the USA and China are well underway. Although the rise in the EUR/USD rate has been underpinned by structural...
Introduction: The US Federal Reserve (FED) spoke last week, and the US federal funds rate was left unchanged at its level since last December. Unlike the European Central Bank (ECB) and other major central banks, the FED has yet to resume cutting its interest rate, despite intense verbal pressure from Donald Trump.
This week (May 12), it's the CPI US inflation...
Introduction: As the financial markets, both crypto and equities, catch their breath after April's striking correction, should we stay on the sidelines as May gets underway? The well-known expression “Sell in May and Go Away” encourages caution, but we don't think it should be followed to the letter this year on the bitcoin price.
1) May is far from being an...
Introduction: In a market analysis we brought you in mid-April, we explained that the price of US crude oil on the commodities market had broken a pivotal technical level, the price of $65 per barrel of Texas crude oil (WTI). As the benchmark for the price of black gold in the United States, this further fall in the price of oil is a very good thing for US...
Introduction: Since the start of 2025, the US dollar has been the only major currency to post a significant decline on the forex market. In fact, it is the only so-called major currency to have fallen on Forex this year. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump's trade war has weakened the greenback's image as a safe haven in the face of the risk of global economic...
Introduction: As the US Federal Reserve (FED) approaches a new monetary policy decision, the central question is: Will Jerome Powell bow to political pressure and initiate a rate cut on May 7? To answer this question, it is essential to look back at the institutional framework of the FED and the historical precedents that shed light on the current stakes. Created...
Introduction: The bitcoin price has rebounded strongly since the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade diplomacy sequence between the USA and its main trading partners, confirmed US disinflation and a strong rebound in global M2 liquidity. On this subject of the positive correlation between the bitcoin price and global liquidity, we invite you to...
1) Lessons from the monthly technical close for the medium/long term
It's Wednesday April 30, the end of the stock market month with another monthly technical close this evening. April has been a highly volatile month, with a bearish shock at the start of the month on the back of the trade war, followed by a bullish recovery when the time for trade diplomacy...
The price of gold has risen by over 20% since the beginning of the year on the commodities market, and the price of bitcoin has returned to equilibrium following a strong rebound in its price since the beginning of April. These two markets follow certain identical correlations, in particular an inverse correlation with the underlying trend of the US dollar on the...
While equity markets have rebounded from their low point in early April, this week, straddling the end of April and the beginning of May, sees the release of top-tier fundamental data.
The trade war is the new dominant fundamental factor. But the market is most interested in the impact on US inflation and the US labor market.
The US PCE inflation report on...
The international equity market suffered a bearish shock between the beginning of February and the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade war. The trade war known as “reciprocal tariffs” initiated by the Trump Administration caused the MSCI World stock index to fall by over 20%.
Now, since the States have entered into a sequence of trade diplomacy,...
