Since the start of 2025, the US dollar has established itself as the weakest major currency on the Forex market, falling by over 11% against a basket of major currencies. If we extend the reference period to include Donald Trump's return to the presidency, the slide even reaches 12%. This spectacular decline is no accident, but the fruit of a strategy deliberately...
1) The US labor market remains resilient according to the latest NFP report, which is good news for the macro-economic situation
The US labor market demonstrated its resilience last week, making a rate cut by the FED on Wednesday July 30 unlikely: the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% of the labor force, after several months of stability around 4.2%. This drop in...
1) Caution: the S&P 500 is now in short-term technical overbought territory and may enter a retracement (without jeopardizing the underlying uptrend)
Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 future contract has technically broken above its all-time high of 6,150 points, thereby validating a signal that the underlying uptrend is continuing. The market has risen for...
The summer of 2025 is characterized by a combination of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that will shape the trajectory of the US equity market. While the S&P 500 is trading close to its all-time highs and at a valuation comparable to that at the end of 2021, the strength of the upward momentum will depend on the conjunction of several key variables....
There's one constant on the floating exchange market (Forex) this year, the US dollar is by far the weakest currency. It's the same scenario as the first months of Donald Trump's first term in office in 2017 repeating itself. The US President's stated aim is to give US exporters a competitive exchange rate.
The Euro exchange rate is also being supported higher by...
Beware this week for stock market fundamentals, as it's a special week. Friday, July 4 is an Independence Day holiday in the United States. On July 4, 1776, the Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence, a text drafted principally by Thomas Jefferson, which proclaimed that the 13 American colonies had officially separated from the United...
Geopolitical calm, optimism about trade diplomacy, anticipation of a rate cut by the FED - a trio that helped the global equity market set a new all-time record and produced a positive correlation effect on the bitcoin price. Can the trend remain bullish until the end of July?
1) Global liquidity still underpins bitcoin's upward momentum
An often...
Technical objective achieved! The S&P 500 index has reached its all-time high, offering a bullish V-shaped recovery since the bearish shock of early April against the backdrop of the trade war between the USA and its main trading partners.
In our previous TradingView analysis, we highlighted numerous favorable technical signals since mid-April in favor of this...
With the US Federal Reserve (FED) meeting on July 30 fast approaching, the markets are scrutinizing the slightest signals likely to indicate an inflexion in monetary policy. While a rate cut seems unlikely in the short term, it cannot be ruled out altogether. Despite Chairman Jerome Powell's firm stance, some influential members of the Monetary Policy Committee...
Has the price of gold made its final high point in a bullish cycle, while the geopolitical situation in the Middle East seems to be beginning to ease? The answer to this question cannot be a simple yes, as there are so many fundamental factors influencing gold's trend on the commodities market.
But it is true that, in terms of technical analysis, signals of the...
The release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due this Friday June 27, is the major macroeconomic event of the week. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation indicator, the PCE could play a decisive role in determining the direction of US monetary policy in the second half of 2025.
1) PCE inflation is the Fed's favorite...
As tensions in the Middle East between Iran, Israel and the United States escalate, speculation about a $130 oil barrel resurfaces on the markets. While the recent rise in prices is very real, fuelled by geopolitics, there is nothing in the fundamentals or in the technical analysis to justify such an extreme scenario for the time being. Unless... the Strait of...
While the fundamentals are still very complicated on the stock market at present, with the FED intransigent, trade war/diplomacy (deadline set for July 9 to reach trade agreements) and extreme geopolitical tensions, can the bitcoin price withstand all these challenges and continue its annual bull run over the summer? Let's take a look at a number of elements,...
The US Federal Reserve (FED) recently updated its economic projections against a backdrop of growing uncertainty. It is now openly concerned about a scenario of stagflation, a combination of weak growth, persistent inflation and rising unemployment. This concern stems in particular from the as yet unquantified impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump...
Geopolitics is in the spotlight this week, along with the FED's monetary policy decision. Geopolitical news is covered by the general media, so there's no need here to repeat information that's accessible to everyone. We therefore propose to review our selection of stock market barometers which, in our opinion, best measure the intensity of geopolitical risk.
1)...
Several fundamental factors will have a strong influence on the stock market this week, including trade diplomacy, geopolitical tensions and the FED's monetary policy decision on Wednesday June 18.
1) The FED on June 18, the fundamental highlight of the week
The stock market week will be dominated by one fundamental event: the US Federal Reserve's (FED)...
In our April 15 analysis, we questioned the likelihood of a low point for the S&P 500 index based on technical analysis considerations. The VIX (the implied volatility of the S&P 500) also showed bearish technical characteristics (inverted correlation with the S&P 500), and indeed, the equity market offered a solid rebound against a backdrop of trade...
Hello everyone,
On May 6, we brought you a technical update on the USD/HKD rate (US dollar VS Hong Kong dollar), as the exchange rate was testing the PEG level of 7.75, defended by the Hong Kong monetary authorities. The PEG therefore provided solid support, and the exchange rate rebounded strongly. It is now under resistance. We'd like to take this opportunity...
