Even in a holiday-shortened week, with little in the way of data, the path of least resistance remains upwards for US equities. The economic backdrop is generally favourable. The US economy is growing at a faster rate than expected, unemployment remains low and the understanding is that interest rates have peaked, even if the timing of future rate cuts remains...
Crude oil was a touch firmer this morning, as front-month WTI continues to put some blue water between itself and key support at $80 per barrel level, previously resistance. There are several factors which boost the current bullish narrative. Firstly, there are the ongoing OPEC+ production cuts, set to run until the end of the second quarter. Then there is the war...
Last Wednesday’s more dovish than expected FOMC ‘Dot Plot’ saw gold fly higher and surge above $2,200 for the first time ever. The move came as the dollar fell on the forecast that there would be three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, unchanged from December’s prediction. But gold was unable to hold its initial gains and pulled back sharply on Thursday and...
Crude oil has pulled back sharply from the highs seen earlier this week. This is despite Wednesday’s dovish Fed meeting which has held out the prospect of lower interest rates this year. Lower rates should boost economic activity and so be good for energy prices. But the oil market is used to strolling its own pathway, and that’s certainly what it’s doing now. Oil...
Precious metals flew higher in the wake of yesterday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. There was a dovish surprise in that the US central bank’s FOMC indicated that they still expect to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, despite a recent uptick in inflation. The US dollar dropped sharply, giving dollar-denominated commodities a boost, while the...
Gold continues to consolidate not far below of all-time highs. This comes after the sharp rally which began in mid-February. Gold is managing to hold above $2,150 on an intra-day basis, and this level is rapidly developing into a significant area of support. Gold was down a touch this morning, which in itself showed remarkable resilience given recent dollar...
The major US stock indices ended higher yesterday, breaking three days of back-to-back losses from the middle of last week. The mid-cap Russell 2000 failed to join in however, ending Monday’s session down 0.7%. All the US indices were weaker this morning, but picked up as the day wore on. Investors are likely to sit on their hands now during the two-day Fed...
Gold continues to consolidate. This follows its month-long rally which began after it briefly broke down below $2,000 per ounce in mid-February. Last week, gold pulled back from its best levels as the dollar jumped higher on hotter-than-expected inflation data. The news has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may push back the timing of its first rate cut....
Yesterday, the bulls finally got the breakthrough they’ve been working on for months now. Ever since front-month WTI broke below $70 in mid-December, oil has been gently pushing higher, although every attempt to break above $80 per barrel has been firmly rebuffed. But the intensity of the attack on this level of resistance picked up significantly this month....
Yesterday, we noted: ‘Today’s notable losers are NVIDIA and Tesla which are both down over 3%’. Well, we can repeat that again today, Thursday afternoon. Other tech majors are holding up so far. But it’s worth noting that the Russell 2000, which unlike the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, has failed to make a fresh record high this year, is down 1.7% at the time of...
Yesterday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed numbers going in the wrong direction. The headline year-on-year CPI rose 3.2%. This was higher than expected, and above the +3.1% reading from January. Previously, January’s numbers had disappointed, coming in above expectations although still showing an overall decline. That had caused a serious market disruption...
Gold was a touch lower this morning, while the US dollar and Treasury yields were little-changed as investors sat on their hands ahead of the latest US CPI update. Gold was on course to break its run of nine days of back-to-back gains. A look at the chart showed no real pullback since this rally began in mid-February, and then really took off at the beginning of...
Crude oil sold off sharply on Friday and is lower in early trade today. Once again, front-month WTI is constrained to the upside by some very obvious and effective resistance around $80 per barrel. This has held firm since crude broke below here in early November last year. However, recent attempts have been accompanied by some positive upside momentum. Yet while...
It’s halfway through Friday’s trading session for US stocks, and the major indices have given up earlier gains. Earlier this morning both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 hit fresh record intra-day highs, helped along by NVIDIA. Having jumped close to 7% yesterday, it added another 3% in after-hours trade this morning. Investors continue to close their eyes and pay...
Crude oil spent all of Wednesday morning rallying steadily, in a move which saw front-month WTI launch another attempt to break above resistance at $80 per barrel. Once again, it was rejected and has gone on to lose more ground this morning. The final leg of yesterday’s upside push came after the latest weekly update from the Energy Information Administration...
Gold bulls have had a tremendous few days after months of frustration. Gold is up just under 5% since this time last week, and is currently closing in on its all-time record high hit back in early December. This was when gold suddenly surged in a low volume, illiquid, post-weekend Asian Pacific session to hit a record high just under $2,150. It subsequently...
Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 closed at fresh record highs on Friday. The Dow ended a tad lower, pulled back by a fall in UnitedHealth which is its major constituent by weighting. Meanwhile, the broad-based, domestically-focused mid-cap index, the Russell 2000, tacked on over 1%, but remains around 15% adrift of its own record highs from back in November 2021....
Just over two weeks ago, gold fell sharply and broke below $2,000 to hit its lowest level in two months. It bounced back quickly, and topped $2,040 per ounce last Friday. It then spent this week going nowhere. Until today. After a fairly shabby start this morning, gold suddenly perked up, and was soon testing levels around $2,050 which acted as resistance in both...
