Some traders may remember the historic selloff in the U.S. dollar that began in late 2002. Current conditions appear similar.
Notice on this chart how the U.S. dollar index pushed to a new 52-week low and then consolidated. Notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) tried to turn higher but failed. Notice how DXY also tested the 100-day SMA and failed....
Recent sessions have seen shift toward cyclical stocks and value names like energy and financials. This follows hopes of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine restoring things to normal.
The key word, of course, is hope . Even if the vaccine works, we don’t know how quickly the economy may return to its previous pace.
But for a tech stock like Apple there are things we...
Housing stocks outperformed earlier this year thanks to low interest rates, an exodus from cities and tight inventories. They recently pulled back but could now be at support.
The iShares US Home Construction ETF is sitting around the same $52 zone where it bounced in September and late October. ITB is also near its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), a line it...
Bitcoin recently consolidated in a tight range below its bear-market high before breaking out. Ethereum may now be following a similar pattern.
ETHUSD started rallying at the start of last week before pausing below its September peak of $489. Instead of dropping sharply as before, it has squeezed into a triangle pattern. November 8th, 9th and potentially the 10th...
Netflix was an early beneficiary of coronavirus as stay-at-home orders boosted demand. That makes today’s news of potential vaccine success from Pfizer a clear negative.
NFLX has other issues. In particular, a bearish gap on October 21 after subscriber growth missed estimates. Management warned that would happen in July because the pandemic was essentially...
Bonds have drifted lower since the start of August. There could now be signs of acceleration.
One important feature on the IShares 20+ Year Bond ETF is the declining 50-day simple moving, now on the verge on the crossing under the 200-day SMA. A “Death Cross.”
Next is the downward channel in place since early September. TLT failed at the top line yesterday and...
On Tuesday, we cited the pullback in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Today, we’re looking at a member stock that’s been dead in the water all year: Micron Technologies.
Worries about the Covid recession have dragged on the memory-chip maker, despite strong results. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Citi also think pricing will improve over the winter.
MU’s...
The S&P 500 has had a violent rebound from Friday’s oversold levels. It’s rallied more than 5.5 percent so far in the week, the index’s best three-day gain since early April.
The bounce has brought prices back to a new level that may be resistance: 3465. This was the high on October 21 and near the close on Friday, October 23. (Daily and weekly close.)
The level...
Last week, we cited the unusual relative strength in Bitcoin and its decoupling from the S&P 500. Today we want to look at some other patterns.
The main thing standing out on the daily chart is BTCUSD’s consolidation in a key price zone between $13,880 and $12,920.54. That was the intraday range between the high and the close on June 26, 2019. (BTCUSD’s...
Semiconductors are behaving more bullishly than the rest of the technology sector.
First, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index made a higher high in mid-October. Meanwhile, the SPDR Technology ETF and Nasdaq-100 made lower highs.
Second, SOX pulled back to hold its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) while XLK and NDX sank all the way to their 100-day...
Several positive things have happened in China lately. The Asian country’s coronavirus cases have remained low and economic data has been strong. Just today, the Caixin manufacturing index had its biggest gain since 2011.
That’s helped push the yuan to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in over 1-1/2 years.
The other big story has been the rise of China...
If we learned anything in March, it’s that Bitcoin can be susceptible to selloffs in the broader market. However it’s been bucking that tide recently.
This chart compares BTCUSD with the S&P 500. Notice how it’s advanced since October 12, while SPX has skidded lower over the same period.
This pushed the 10-day correlation down to -0.7. That’s the lowest since...
One of the main features of the market lately has been a rotation to non-megacap technology names. Zoom Video Communications, Twilio, Roku, Snap, Pinterest, Zendesk, Etsy, Match, Digital Turbine, Appian, Fiverr and others (including solars) have all shot to new highs lately. Meanwhile the biggest names like Amazon.com and Apple have drifted since the...
Everyone knows about Zoom Video Communications , but Twilio is another cloud-based beneficiary of the coronavirus pandemic.
TWLO has had a trio of positive headlines this month:
10/2: Guidance raised
10/12: Acquires customer-data firm Segment
10/26: Earnings and revenue beat
TWLO has declined along with the rest of the market in the last two weeks....
Sometimes the Japanese yen is viewed as a “safe haven” because it can gain when investors dump risk assets like stocks. That could make the Asian currency’s recent price action important.
This chart highlights a clear descending triangle forming in USDJPY. (It falls when the yen strengthens.) Notice how its steadily tracked its 50-day simple moving average (SMA)...
Crunch time has arrived. Earnings hit hard and fast in coming sessions, while the Presidential Election is in exactly one week.
A few things stand out on the S&P 500 as we enter this key time.
First, the potential kicker we cited last week was never confirmed. Instead of bouncing strongly at 3425, SPX lingered above it before knifing through that key level on...
Cryptos have come to life recently as Bitcoin’s limited supply post-halving combines with a wave of blockchain adoption: Square , PayPal and now JPMorgan Chase .
Ethereum’s been quieter since the summer, following a hard rally in July and August. But now it may be showing its own signs of life.
The main thing standing out on the chart today is an apparent...
The Select Sectors Financials ETF is closely associated with stimulus and a reopening of the U.S. economy. Now that those hopes are fading, it may present a downside opportunity.
The main thing jumping off XLF’s chart is the falling 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This has cut down like a knife since the pandemic began, quashing rallies in June and early...
