Markets have been dreadfully negative in recent weeks but we have in recent days begun a relief rally in US stocks and most FX pairs.
AUD has led higher after new election and new China friendlier party in charge. On that note china made first high level contact in 2 years.
We like AUD to rally with stocks and sentiment alone but the kicker would be if US drops...
Oil is moving higher in a $10-20 channel for the past 3 months.
The respect of the downside trendline support in the past few weeks has led to a reliable rally if we hold lows.
The similar situation on the topside with multiple rallies above 110 failing in recent weeks. The current strategy is to follow Oil from downside to topside support and resistance and...
EUR/USD has taken the brunt of the USD strength since the Ukraine War and Russian sanctions soured the economic outlook of the Eurozone.
What happens with peace? Well obviously we rally but the argument is that with the ECB acting as well we will not just bounce but fly back above EUR/USD 1.10.
Now timing this potential outcome is the issue and we could rally...
Looking for the recent 3-4 day stabilization of the crypto market to produce a larger relief rally along with risk assets like US stocks in coming days.
If this rally is sold into 2300 that would suggest downtrend is not over but the outlook for crypto now depends on how hard the government comes in and regulates the wild west crypto market post Luna crash.
But...
Big levels on Bitcoin and Eth are being downside checked right now, with the key 28k-30k levels being tested and leading the whole Crypto complex up and down whether it holds or breaks.
A little oversold like US stocks and Nasdaq in particular the markets are all moving together right now, so its likely if we have a big rally tonight in Stocks that Bitcoin will...
Huge US inflation number tonight will make or break the market which is on edge.
Widely forecast to fall for the first time this year, this fall in inflation should help stabilize US stocks as fears of runaway inflation are downplayed.
If Inflation remains hot, all bets are off for how high US interest rates and USD can rally.
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The big consolidation wedge from the last 12 months continues to support on the downside and so far capped topside. As we bounce here we look for key resistances levels and different scenarios.
Buy Level #1 pullback to this zone 100.538 - 101.419
Buy Level #2 R/S Flip of 102.827 and holding of 50EMA (red line)
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Zone of Major Support from 12130-12380 (Buy Zone)
Strong Bullish Divergence for the last 3 lows.
Stop losses below this zone keep safe from liquidity grabs inducing short-sellers at major support.
Strong Resistance 12780 (Alternatively if flipped should create strong support).
Further Resistance 13050
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USD is knocking on the dollar of a breakout extension of it record breaking run, we up against 104 on Dollar index which is the 2017 high and we have so far rejected a few attempts since last week.
Market could be caught a little long here if US CPI falls for the first time this year when its released Wednesday US morning. A fall should help sentiment and perhaps...
Major Support Zone above long term .618 fib retracement. Range 28800-30K buying zone.
Bullish Divergence on RSI between lows.
Heavy Band of resistance close to 0.5 fib retracement - range 34350-36500.
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Gold was one of the most oversold and have seen a very sharp $50 rally overnight back to $1900 as the FED calmed fears by taking 0.75% rate hikes off the table.
We are quickly coming up to the $1900-$1910 key resistance which if we can break will take some of the downside pressure off the buyers. This key resistance also lines up with the 38% retracement and so...
AUD/USD has been belted in recent weeks as the USD bullied every major FX pair. The selling is overdone and into major support ahead of the FOMC meeting tonight.
Yesterday the RBA raised rates by 0.25% to 0.35% and we have begun the rate hike cycle with the central bank refocused on inflation.
We look for buy the rumour sell the fact USD selling tonight after...
Approaching Major Support zones 2726 - 2763 with scattered support below = Less Conservative Entry Levels
Conservative Entry Level = Break/Reclaim of the 50EMA + Trend Resistance
Price has continued to trend lower as it rejects off both the 50EMA and Trend Resistance.
Heavy Zone of resistance located further between 2940-2970
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Major positive announcements from the CCP today say Chinese stocks soar and the big picture outlook improve dramatically.
Covid stimulus for those companies affected by the lockdowns, cheaper share trading fees, but the big one is the end of the clampdown on the Chinese Tech sector.
Alibaba and Tencent the two biggest tech companies soared and if the government...
Zone of Liquidity/Support 37630-38320 with Trend Line Support
+ Bullish Divergence on RSI
+ Lots of scattered support in this range which price can go to (So Smaller Trade Size and Wider Stop Loss)
Resistance from 39450 and above. Keep in mind the 20EMA and 50EMA lurking under and above this resistance level which price can also reject off strongly.
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USD is rallying pre the big show on hawkish FED bets ahead of the FOMC meeting May 4th. Bond market speculators have aggressively priced in multiple FED rate hikes in the coming 12 months and its going to be very hard for the FOMC to be as hawkish as the market.
The 2017 highs were seen just at the start of US rate hike cycle as well and very often we...
Tesla has successfully navigated a dangerous earning season by reassuring the market about production at the shutdown Chinese plat in Shanghai will bounce back and meet Q1 numbers.
We expect gap to 1030 resistance with break above targeting first move back to 1080.
Failure to break higher would be bearish given the market structure and a warning sign for the...
