10-year Treasury Yield Surging ahead last FOMC in 2024
After a politically charged November, bond markets have shifted their gaze back to economic fundamentals, setting the stage for a crucial Federal Reserve meeting on December 17. Recent data—including a robust jobs report and rising inflation—have reignited debates over long-term yields and the Fed’s future rate trajectory.
With the Fed’s dot plot and 2025 outlook in focus, the bond yield rallies ahead of the meeting reflects heightened anticipation of pivotal policy signals. This piece unpacks the dynamics driving Treasury yields and explores a potential trade setup deploying CME Yield futures to navigate the unfolding market environment.
MARKETS ARE FOCUSSING ON ECONOMIC DATA AGAIN
In November, U.S. Treasury yields were more influenced by political factors than by economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield remained largely unchanged after the 13/Nov CPI report, which showed headline CPI rising to 2.6% year-over-year in October, up from 2.4% in September. While the higher inflation suggested potential risks to bond yields—given that prolonged inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate cuts—Treasury yields were mostly unaffected by the data.
Instead, yields declined sharply when markets opened on November 25, following President Trump’s announcement of Scott Bessent as his pick for U.S. Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a fund manager, is anticipated to prioritize tax cuts and fiscal caution. The announcement drove the 10-year Treasury yield nearly 30 basis points lower over the next week, reaching its lowest level in over a month.
In the past two weeks, however, market focus appears to have shifted back to economic data. The non-farm payrolls report for November, released on December 6, exceeded expectations with 227,000 jobs added. Additionally, October’s dismal figure of 12,000 jobs was revised upward to 36,000, providing further support to the positive sentiment.
The improved jobs report soothed investor concerns, signalling that the state of the US economy may not be as bad as previously perceived. The jobs report eventually drove a 5-basis point recovery over the following week.
The latest CPI report for November also reaffirmed the trend that investors were focussing attention on economic data as 10Y yields surged after the report, rising nearly 19 basis points from the 09/Dec low.
10Y-2Y spreads have also surged by 8 basis points since 09/Dec. Investors can monitor the yield spreads using CME’s Treasury watch tool.
The tool can also be used to monitor the yield curve. Over the past month, the decline in Treasury yields has been concentrated in shorter-term tenors (2Y, 3Y, and 5Y), while the 30Y yield has remained largely unchanged. In contrast, the increase in yields over the past week has been more uniform across all tenors.
The November report showed inflation rising even further to 2.7%, although in-line with expectations, it suggests that inflation may be more persistent than previously perceived. This has led to expectations of a higher inflation premium for long-term treasuries which may have contributed to the rally in 10Y treasury yields.
FED DOT PLOT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT NEXT WEEK
Markets are almost certain of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on 17/Dec, with FedWatch indicating a 97% probability of this outcome as of 16/Dec. However, the primary focus will likely be on the Fed's guidance for the rate trajectory in the coming year. Alongside the rate decision, the Fed is expected to release its dot plot and summary of economic projections at the December meeting.
The December meeting is crucial as participants closely monitor the outlook for 2025. At last year’s December meeting, the Fed projected significant rate cuts in 2024, which triggered a substantial equity rally and a decline in bond yields.
Per CME FedWatch, market participants expect an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025. However, the Fed's September dot plot indicated expectations for 100 basis points of cuts in 2025. If the December dot plot reaffirms the projection of 100 basis points, bond yields could decline sharply.
BOND YIELDS HAVE RALLIED HEADING INTO THE MEETING IN THE PAST
The 10-year Treasury yields have rallied ahead of three of the last four FOMC meetings, with the increases notably concentrated in the three days leading up to the meetings. Given the recent trajectory of 10-year yields, a similar pattern may be likely this time.
The 10Y-2Y spread has shown a similar trend, increasing ahead of the last three FOMC meetings. However, following the November meeting, the 10Y-2Y spread declined. This suggests it may be prudent to position ahead of the meeting to mitigate potential post-meeting volatility.
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Market participants are nearly certain of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but the summary of economic projections is likely to carry greater significance. Currently, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are more conservative than the Fed's previous dot plot. If the Fed reaffirms expectations for more aggressive rate cuts next year, bond yields could sharply reverse their two-week rally.
While the 10-year yield outlook remains uncertain and subject to risk, the 10Y-2Y spread has a more optimistic trajectory. The spread stands to benefit from expectations of further rate cuts and its ongoing normalization trend. Additionally, historical trends suggest that positioning before the FOMC meeting may be advantageous, as the spread corrected after the last meeting.
Investors can express a view on the steepening of the 10Y-2Y yield spread using CME yield futures.
CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point (“bps”) change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This simplifies spread calculations with a 1 bps change in spread representing profit & loss of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively, at the time of writing. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of 16/Dec, making this trade even more compelling.
The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.94x:
Entry: 13.5 basis points
Target: 30 basis points
Stop Loss: 5 basis points
Profit at Target: USD 165 (16.5 basis points x USD 10)
Loss at Stop: USD 85 (8.5 basis points x USD 10)
Reward to Risk: 1.94x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
With the Fed’s dot plot and 2025 outlook in focus, the bond yield rallies ahead of the meeting reflects heightened anticipation of pivotal policy signals. This piece unpacks the dynamics driving Treasury yields and explores a potential trade setup deploying CME Yield futures to navigate the unfolding market environment.
MARKETS ARE FOCUSSING ON ECONOMIC DATA AGAIN
In November, U.S. Treasury yields were more influenced by political factors than by economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield remained largely unchanged after the 13/Nov CPI report, which showed headline CPI rising to 2.6% year-over-year in October, up from 2.4% in September. While the higher inflation suggested potential risks to bond yields—given that prolonged inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate cuts—Treasury yields were mostly unaffected by the data.
Instead, yields declined sharply when markets opened on November 25, following President Trump’s announcement of Scott Bessent as his pick for U.S. Treasury Secretary. Bessent, a fund manager, is anticipated to prioritize tax cuts and fiscal caution. The announcement drove the 10-year Treasury yield nearly 30 basis points lower over the next week, reaching its lowest level in over a month.
In the past two weeks, however, market focus appears to have shifted back to economic data. The non-farm payrolls report for November, released on December 6, exceeded expectations with 227,000 jobs added. Additionally, October’s dismal figure of 12,000 jobs was revised upward to 36,000, providing further support to the positive sentiment.
The improved jobs report soothed investor concerns, signalling that the state of the US economy may not be as bad as previously perceived. The jobs report eventually drove a 5-basis point recovery over the following week.
The latest CPI report for November also reaffirmed the trend that investors were focussing attention on economic data as 10Y yields surged after the report, rising nearly 19 basis points from the 09/Dec low.
10Y-2Y spreads have also surged by 8 basis points since 09/Dec. Investors can monitor the yield spreads using CME’s Treasury watch tool.
Source: CME TreasuryWatch
The tool can also be used to monitor the yield curve. Over the past month, the decline in Treasury yields has been concentrated in shorter-term tenors (2Y, 3Y, and 5Y), while the 30Y yield has remained largely unchanged. In contrast, the increase in yields over the past week has been more uniform across all tenors.
Source: CME TreasuryWatch
The November report showed inflation rising even further to 2.7%, although in-line with expectations, it suggests that inflation may be more persistent than previously perceived. This has led to expectations of a higher inflation premium for long-term treasuries which may have contributed to the rally in 10Y treasury yields.
FED DOT PLOT REMAINS THE HIGHLIGHT NEXT WEEK
Markets are almost certain of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on 17/Dec, with FedWatch indicating a 97% probability of this outcome as of 16/Dec. However, the primary focus will likely be on the Fed's guidance for the rate trajectory in the coming year. Alongside the rate decision, the Fed is expected to release its dot plot and summary of economic projections at the December meeting.
The December meeting is crucial as participants closely monitor the outlook for 2025. At last year’s December meeting, the Fed projected significant rate cuts in 2024, which triggered a substantial equity rally and a decline in bond yields.
Source: CME FedWatch
Per CME FedWatch, market participants expect an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025. However, the Fed's September dot plot indicated expectations for 100 basis points of cuts in 2025. If the December dot plot reaffirms the projection of 100 basis points, bond yields could decline sharply.
Source: Federal Reserve
BOND YIELDS HAVE RALLIED HEADING INTO THE MEETING IN THE PAST
The 10-year Treasury yields have rallied ahead of three of the last four FOMC meetings, with the increases notably concentrated in the three days leading up to the meetings. Given the recent trajectory of 10-year yields, a similar pattern may be likely this time.
The 10Y-2Y spread has shown a similar trend, increasing ahead of the last three FOMC meetings. However, following the November meeting, the 10Y-2Y spread declined. This suggests it may be prudent to position ahead of the meeting to mitigate potential post-meeting volatility.
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Market participants are nearly certain of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but the summary of economic projections is likely to carry greater significance. Currently, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 are more conservative than the Fed's previous dot plot. If the Fed reaffirms expectations for more aggressive rate cuts next year, bond yields could sharply reverse their two-week rally.
While the 10-year yield outlook remains uncertain and subject to risk, the 10Y-2Y spread has a more optimistic trajectory. The spread stands to benefit from expectations of further rate cuts and its ongoing normalization trend. Additionally, historical trends suggest that positioning before the FOMC meeting may be advantageous, as the spread corrected after the last meeting.
Investors can express a view on the steepening of the 10Y-2Y yield spread using CME yield futures.
CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point (“bps”) change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This simplifies spread calculations with a 1 bps change in spread representing profit & loss of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively, at the time of writing. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of 16/Dec, making this trade even more compelling.
The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.94x:
Entry: 13.5 basis points
Target: 30 basis points
Stop Loss: 5 basis points
Profit at Target: USD 165 (16.5 basis points x USD 10)
Loss at Stop: USD 85 (8.5 basis points x USD 10)
Reward to Risk: 1.94x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Full Disclaimer - linktr.ee/mintfinance
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