Hong Kong Properties - Gloomy Days ahead

Updated
Read latest news here

Property investment is a capital intensive game and the waiting time is much longer compared to equities. Those who bought into HK properties 2-3 years ago and if they are selling now are likely to incur heavy losses. But they have no choice especially if they are speculators , hoping to flip the properties for a quick gain.........
Note
a fake breakout to attract the early bulls....only to disappoint......
Note
4 months later, the scene is still one of pessimissm.
Note
NO, I did not short this stock else I would make a killing in the market, haha.....

But more importantly is how the Chinese government will intervene and salvage this company. Or will it not ?
Note
From the peak of 27 dollars, Evergrande, the largest real estate developer is now worth 1.56 dollars , OMG !!!!!!!
Note
are we seeing a possible rebound ? the last 3 days have been bullish so far.....however, the China market is flooded with oversupply and weak demand at the moment with many Tier 3 and 4 developers resorting to finding creative ways to entice buyers - eg. accepting wheat or barley as downpayment, promising a job offer upon purchase of flats, etc.
Note
This is an important sector , a pillar of China's GDP and it must not falter, no matter what coz the consequences are grave as it involves millions of households at stake. It is a wait and see approach for many, not sure what the central government will do to shore up this sector............
Note
well, after 3 months or so, we can see the selling pressure seems to have reduced quite a fair bit. In fact, the last 3 days , we witnessed bullish candles which could be a tell tale sign of a turn around.

Let's hope it works so that it will lift up the Chinese economy and the moods of the retail investors to pour in more money into the stock market. We are all in it together....
Note
globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1284027.shtml

after 3 long years, could we see the light at the end of the tunnel for the property sector ?
Note
a quick look after 1.5 years and it is all down to penny stocks level. Will it recover ? Years probably and lots of stimulus and government policies changes needed.
Note
This is an important chart that I check back every week to get an idea of the overall property market. If these big boys cannot survive, the smaller ones are either going bankrupt or struggling in heavy debts.......

Do not think that just because it has dropped 80-90% that means the upside is HUGE and downside is small (in theory , yes) coz you could be tying up your limited capital and ride on these feeble stocks for a long time (consolidation phase can take years) and until the government seriously do something MAJOR to support the market
20073333Chart PatternsTrend Analysis

Disclaimer