Apple is cyclical, the supercycle is over go short.
I made this chart some time ago for personal use but did not publish it. The bullish euphoria in Apple has reached a peak. Its amazing that apple has been able to persuade their mindless followers into shelling out 1000$ or more for an extremely overrated "ecosystem". I suspect Android phones will start to eat into apples high end sales now, as they have made incredible progress in the last 5 years. Especially Chinese brands Huawei and Xiaomi have come a very long way and are now seeing increasing amounts of success worldwide, especially in China and Europe.
If the installed base of Apple phones starts to decline in the future, so will the services revenue as it is linked to the App Store. Thus i wouldnt buy the "apple as a tech company" narrative. To me it should still be valued as a consumer discretionary company, and a return to historical p/e levels of 12-15 should be in order.
If the installed base of Apple phones starts to decline in the future, so will the services revenue as it is linked to the App Store. Thus i wouldnt buy the "apple as a tech company" narrative. To me it should still be valued as a consumer discretionary company, and a return to historical p/e levels of 12-15 should be in order.
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