Short

Updated

If this does not turn out to be the top, throw away the T.A

This is the last shot at calling a top for this resilient infuriating stock.

If this doesn't work, then I have no idea what will.

Monthly MACD has Bear divergence, which can help the case here.

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One month bear div here.

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sooooo is it really that time?? cuz its about time.

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Well, if that earnings cant send it up, seems like down was always inevitable.

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I wouldnt even consider looking at this for another few weeks. Maybe months.

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okay i looked again. I cant help it im obsessed.

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We may go even lower. One could argue a test of the 200 day is in order. By the time we approach, it will be the longest period where apple has not tested the 200.

Actually, im pretty sure it already is.

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This trade is still on the table. there are supports along the way, atleast one more leg down IMO

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So, the past few times apple weekly macd averages crossed... it didnt do what it had done every time prior to that.

I suspect it was remenents of covid stimmy that kept it afloat.

So what did it do each and every time before this set of anomalies? well...

it tested the 200 week.

go backrest it yourself, but we crossed again. is this time for real? or is there still covid stimmy around? i personally think that stimmy is being sucked out, so this is it.

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People hate selling at a loss, even though they should.

they say things like "ill sell when it gets back to "x" price.

nah, it wont get there.

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This was always a possible outcome, apple does tend to dead cat bounce to the 618 or 786 fibs...

anyway, after such occurrences, the downside is usually swift.

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I tried to make a double bottom long yesterday and have exited at break even today.

i took the long position as this is NOT the place to get short. so you are either watching or long...

anyway, at this point i anticipate the RSI is going to go into oversold again, and we will see where price gets.

Historically the 618 fib is a support, sometimes it stops a bit before.

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Historically when the 4 hour RSI became this oversold for this long, and the rsi then retraced again, it signaled an abc correction . The measured move was from a to b, then tack on an additional 5-10% slippage (capitulation)

that brings right to target...

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As for what causes this?

I think the long term yields breaking to new highs spooks the markets in a real way. Looks to me as if they are about to break up.

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Took a long position, will cut if needed.

easy invalidation.

very low risk here as it is right at support.

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Getting few dm asking why long here if bearish?

well, if im not right on the bear thesis, then this is a great spot to attempt a long.

minimal loss if i have to cut the position.

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This is why you long support, cause now I am in a good position and no matter what I make money. If it keeps going up I let it ride, if it reverses i can stop out in profit.

Win Win.

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Until we break this low, we do remain bullish.

With the worst season of the year beyond us, it appears bottom MAY be in. It is not unusual for apple to break to new highs, retest the prior high range, and continue up after a 12-13% correction.

What made me skeptical recently on this sell off, was that obvious risk like cryptocurrency didnt sell off with the stock market.

Made me feel as if the move was somewhat forced and faked in equities.

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Going to say this is probably another deadcat bounce...

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Hidden Bearish Divergence

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Gotta try at least.

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do we fill the gap below? I would think thats as far as we go.

I am growing increasingly skeptical of the warren buffet buy zone...

I am watching the crypto market as well and it is holding up very well. If we were in risk off, then you would see Bitcoin dumping, but instead it is holding stronger than the s&p500...

Also, engagement on youtube videos is significantly higher with doom videos, which shows that the majority is looking to buy lower.

If everyone is waiting, then it probably doesn't get there.

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IMO bottom is in. it didnt make a full gap fill, which shows strength.

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Additionally. If we close like this on the day, this will be a piercing line candle, and if we go further, maybe even bullish engulfing .

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Okay so it did not close as a piercing line. or a bullish engulfing.

It is now a doji.

I am still long, but very cautious. we did technically retest the prior low as resistance, but then we also tested the top of the gap as support.

Breaking back into the yellow box in any meaningful way could spell disaster. Breaking above the red line would be very meaningful for the bulls.

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I dont often use the 1 minute timeframe, however, were at a very interesting spot, and i think that the one minute really defines the moment.

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Annnd back below support, tested as resistance multiple times, lower highs, absolute trash price action... no sign of strength on the breakout and now id consider this failure. stopped out in profit waiting for lower targets...

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Another test near end of day... not looking good...

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The monthly close looks terrible.

MONTHLY CANDLESTICK PATTERN.

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If were actually going lower, which I find to be the most probable situation after the recent rejections, then it should happen relatively quick.

If there is too much delay in lower, then the sellers would be showing weakness.

so, quick capitulations.

like this, maybe.

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Little bounce this morning.

expecting a lower high to be formed somewhere between now and 176.

Oil supply has been cut, yet price is starting to come down and oil stocks are crashing, likely having put in their highs.

Why is this? low supply... demand must really be dwindling... that wouldn't happen in a strong economy.

The yields are moving up sharply again, with the USD (DXY) being relentless in its attempt to make a 12th green week...

I remain bearish despite todays bounce.

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This analyst has a different approach than I do, he has a couple videos on youtube that you can check out. I really think that his analysis can be complimentary to traditional technical analysis.

Milton Berg

youtube.com/watch?v=sGaiPhI6PhA

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Okay, it went much higher than expected, but thats fine. filled the gap, continued downtrend after bearish engulfing candle... should accelerate from here, 3 peaks is a pretty nasty confirmation of downtrend.

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Sometimes its best to just flip the chart.

this looks like a great bottom, an accumulation, 3 rising valleys...

i would argue to buy here...

So yeah, flip it back to normal... this is a sell.

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What happened with apple is why you should take profit.

Pssst. I didnt.

<3

MikeMM

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MikeMM