Apple Analysis: Key Paths Ahead
Updated
For Apple, two scenarios remain feasible. We continue to believe that we may have witnessed the completion of a significant cycle and anticipate a further correction downwards, expected to range between $115 and $90. Theoretically, according to traditional analysis, this correction should ideally be between $115 and $92. This bearish grand scenario would become invalid if we breach the 138% level before completing the correction.
Shifting to our bullish scenario, it suggests that what we saw in 2021 wasn't Wave (5) but rather Wave (3), followed by a Wave (4) correction and an impending Wave 5. Whether this is fully feasible remains uncertain. It's not entirely dismissible, yet it's hard to fully endorse without reservations. Therefore, we're closely monitoring the overall market sentiment to decide whether to place our limit order on the bullish short-term scenario.
Shifting to our bullish scenario, it suggests that what we saw in 2021 wasn't Wave (5) but rather Wave (3), followed by a Wave (4) correction and an impending Wave 5. Whether this is fully feasible remains uncertain. It's not entirely dismissible, yet it's hard to fully endorse without reservations. Therefore, we're closely monitoring the overall market sentiment to decide whether to place our limit order on the bullish short-term scenario.
Note
For Apple, we're considering three scenarios. The first scenario envisions a deep and prolonged correction in the weekly chart, which should last a while but would be invalidated if prices rise above $205.38. Until then, we continue to expect a decline to levels between 38.2% and 61.8%. A drop below this would be unusually deep for a stock like Apple. On closer inspection of the two-day chart, there's a possibility that we won't experience such a deep correction but are at the end of Wave (4), anticipating the start of Wave (5) before the overarching cycle concludes. This scenario assumes maintaining the level for Wave 2, which lies between 50% and 78.6%, specifically between $161 and $140. Subsequently, a significant rise is expected for Wave 3, potentially reaching at least $281, and possibly ending in this range.
In summary, either we have completed Wave (4) and are moving upwards to form Wave (5), or Wave (4) has not yet concluded, and we may experience a further decline, marked with Alt. A, B, and C. Alternatively, the entire cycle may have concluded, leading us into a comprehensive Wave II correction between $114 and $71. These are the three scenarios at play for Apple. We will continue to monitor and assess which scenario is most likely.
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