AAPL Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26
📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* AAPL recently rejected from the upper trendline (~248.69) and is now testing the lower bound of its rising wedge pattern.
* Support: Near 245.10 (POC) and 243.51 (previous support level).
* Resistance: 247-248.69 (VAH & recent high).
* If AAPL fails to hold 245, the next downside target is 241.84.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 245.83 → Key liquidity area.
* Value Area High (VAH): 246.78 → Resistance zone.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 241.84 → Next major support below POC.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish crossover, confirming downside momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but not yet curling upward.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 250 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance).
* 255-260 → Additional call walls (unlikely unless sentiment shifts).
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 225 & 220 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-7.3% & -11.9%).
* AAPL could see increased downside volatility below 240 if 243.50 breaks.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 31.4 | IVx Avg 40.8 → Slightly elevated, but not extreme.
* Put Positioning at Only 5.9% → Limited hedging, suggesting downside may accelerate on breakdowns.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 245 confirmation. 🔹 Target 1: 243.51 (next support). 🔹 Target 2: 241.84 (VAL). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 247 (invalidates breakdown). 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 245/240 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 245P/235P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 247-248, targeting 250+. 🔹 Target 1: 250 (Highest GEX resistance). 🔹 Target 2: 255 (next gamma squeeze level). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 245 invalidates upside move. 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 240/235 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 247+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 243.50, strong gamma exposure can push AAPL lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* AAPL recently rejected from the upper trendline (~248.69) and is now testing the lower bound of its rising wedge pattern.
* Support: Near 245.10 (POC) and 243.51 (previous support level).
* Resistance: 247-248.69 (VAH & recent high).
* If AAPL fails to hold 245, the next downside target is 241.84.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 245.83 → Key liquidity area.
* Value Area High (VAH): 246.78 → Resistance zone.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 241.84 → Next major support below POC.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish crossover, confirming downside momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but not yet curling upward.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 250 → Highest positive NETGEX & Call Wall (strong resistance).
* 255-260 → Additional call walls (unlikely unless sentiment shifts).
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 225 & 220 → Highest Put Walls & Support (-7.3% & -11.9%).
* AAPL could see increased downside volatility below 240 if 243.50 breaks.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 31.4 | IVx Avg 40.8 → Slightly elevated, but not extreme.
* Put Positioning at Only 5.9% → Limited hedging, suggesting downside may accelerate on breakdowns.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 245 confirmation. 🔹 Target 1: 243.51 (next support). 🔹 Target 2: 241.84 (VAL). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 247 (invalidates breakdown). 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 245/240 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 245P/235P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 247-248, targeting 250+. 🔹 Target 1: 250 (Highest GEX resistance). 🔹 Target 2: 255 (next gamma squeeze level). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 245 invalidates upside move. 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 240/235 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 247+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 243.50, strong gamma exposure can push AAPL lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.