Apple IncShort
AAPL P/E at $40???
One shouldn't need to have an analysis when AAPL is trading at > 40x P/E. I went back and counted, there are only 4 days in the history of AAPL where it traded above the current multiple and all 4 of those days came in the post-covid-free-money-boon when they last had actual growth.
Now, a company with a year average revenue growth rate of 5% is trading at 40x+?? For comparison,
NVDA is currently trading at ~55x P/E.
AAPL is chasing 4T. There is nothing fundamental about this price except for the "apple always goes up" narrative. From a fundamental perspective, putting money in at this price to go long is absurd.
The only _potential_ positive that Apple has right now is that Tim has cozied up to Trump and may be able to sway him to apply tariffs to his competition in a way that is more damaging to them (Samsung) than they are to Apple (if they are damaging at all). But even at this price that potential just doesn't hold the risk reward for a 1-3 year play to allow that to come to fruition. It seems more likely to me that any form of tariffs (if any) that may benefit Apple will be a local maximum as the larger tariff strategy will likely hurt the economy, more than offsetting any value that Apple gets as a leg up over its competition.
Anywho, Apple is now trading right at the top of an 8 month range is is flashing overbought across the board. There is more downside from here in the short to medium term than upside.
AAPL is trading at > 40x P/E. I went back and counted, there are only 4 days in the history of AAPL where it traded above the current multiple and all 4 of those days came in the post-covid-free-money-boon when they last had actual growth. Now, a company with a year average revenue growth rate of 5% is trading at 40x+?? For comparison,
NVDA is currently trading at ~55x P/E. AAPL is chasing 4T. There is nothing fundamental about this price except for the "apple always goes up" narrative. From a fundamental perspective, putting money in at this price to go long is absurd.
The only _potential_ positive that Apple has right now is that Tim has cozied up to Trump and may be able to sway him to apply tariffs to his competition in a way that is more damaging to them (Samsung) than they are to Apple (if they are damaging at all). But even at this price that potential just doesn't hold the risk reward for a 1-3 year play to allow that to come to fruition. It seems more likely to me that any form of tariffs (if any) that may benefit Apple will be a local maximum as the larger tariff strategy will likely hurt the economy, more than offsetting any value that Apple gets as a leg up over its competition.
Anywho, Apple is now trading right at the top of an 8 month range is is flashing overbought across the board. There is more downside from here in the short to medium term than upside.
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