$ABNB going up on hopium; Fair value $100-120
- 
ABNB gave hopium of investing in different business for next 5 years which could grow into a billion dollars.
- Investors should not fall for hopium. Execution remains a challenge and money spent on that bet remains unseen and just a wild dream as of now.
- EPS growth ofABNB is almost flat for next 2-3 years.
- Hotel industry has caught up to ABNB. There's no USP ( unique selling point ) of ABNB. Verbo offers exactly the same thing whichABNB does.
- Tons of listing have cannibalized net revenue for the host.
- Short term rentals have caused havoc in the rental market for the long term tenants.
Fundamentals wise:
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 4.37 | 5.05 | 5.99 | 7.37
EPS growth % | 9.89% | 15.65% | 18.68% | 22.94%
For a company growing eps mid to high teens deserves a fair forward multiple of 20.
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price w p/e 20 | $87 | $101 | $119 | $147
However, many investors would be okay paying 25 times for a company with strong brand so.
Stock price w p/e 25 | $109 | $126 | $149 | $184
Bull Case:
Stock price w p/e 30 | $131 | $151 | $179 | $221
Recommendation:
Staying on the sidelines and waiting for the stock to disappoint and buy it close to instrinsic value represented by fundamentals
ABNB gave hopium of investing in different business for next 5 years which could grow into a billion dollars.- Investors should not fall for hopium. Execution remains a challenge and money spent on that bet remains unseen and just a wild dream as of now.
- EPS growth of
ABNB is almost flat for next 2-3 years.- Hotel industry has caught up to ABNB. There's no USP ( unique selling point ) of ABNB. Verbo offers exactly the same thing which
ABNB does.- Tons of listing have cannibalized net revenue for the host.
- Short term rentals have caused havoc in the rental market for the long term tenants.
Fundamentals wise:
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 4.37 | 5.05 | 5.99 | 7.37
EPS growth % | 9.89% | 15.65% | 18.68% | 22.94%
For a company growing eps mid to high teens deserves a fair forward multiple of 20.
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price w p/e 20 | $87 | $101 | $119 | $147
However, many investors would be okay paying 25 times for a company with strong brand so.
Stock price w p/e 25 | $109 | $126 | $149 | $184
Bull Case:
Stock price w p/e 30 | $131 | $151 | $179 | $221
Recommendation:
Staying on the sidelines and waiting for the stock to disappoint and buy it close to instrinsic value represented by fundamentals
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.